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this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2023
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So are PowerBall and Mega Millions now rigged to make sure that the jackpot always hits $1B before a winner is drawn?
Rigged in the sense that they intentionally made the odds so long as to almost ensure it would routinely go weeks and weeks without a winner. So yes, it is by design.
They changed this some years ago. Odds used to be better, they made them worse on purpose to get bigger jackpots.
Which makes it less worthwhile to play, IMHO. Odds were horrible before the change and now they're WORSE? No thanks.
ETA: I have not done it in a while, but I might buy a ticket for fun. It is worth a few dollars just to dream a little.
This is what they are banking on.
I bought a Powerball ticket the first time it hit a billion. I found out why later that day. I knew it was a waste to begin with, but it kinda pissed me off. 2006ish(?), turns out making the odds even worse drives up jackpot.
So is it optimal strategy to never play on a new (non rolled over) session? Seems like a bit of a prisoners' dilemma if everyone realises that
Billion dollar question, my friend.
I imagine their sales go up fast when so-called "news" outlets (like this community) report that it's hit that level.
Never mind that it makes your already infinitesimal odds of winning even smaller, when the regular jackpot would already be a life-changing amount of money. People who only buy tickets when the jackpot goes up are just falling even harder for the scam than those who buy when the jackpot is "low".
The odds of winning don't change based on the number of people who buy tickets.
But the odds of sharing a prize do.
Yes. Though, that is an artifact of the rules of the payout; everyone's chances of winning are exactly the same.
The expected value of a ticket goes up. At some point it's higher than the cost of the ticket.
The odds of winning are always the same, so why are the ones buying tickets less often falling for the scam harder? It's dumb too, but conceptually speaking it's a better return on investment if you win somehow.
I was told years ago when I worked at a convince store our loto rep said white balls coming out of the machine are fake it never random. They decide when it pays out. He claims it only pays out when they earn double what will be paid out. This back when loto got up to like 4 million. So they would earn 8 and then give the illusion that the white balls came out and gave a winner.
He says they preload the winning numbers. Since it all electronic they can keep people from winning for as long as they want because they know all numbers submitted.
Well if he works as a lotto rep in the field, we know he’s in the loop on a plan that would land dozens of people in jail above him.
and all that risk and complexity for no obvious benefit?