this post was submitted on 18 Mar 2026
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Chapotraphouse
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Remember when they dropped the MOAB on that abandoned airfield in Syria during term 1? reportedly to placate the burning desire in all men for nuclear hellfire with which trump was becoming too entranced?
I'm at about 50/50 odds on someone doing a nuke and suspect I'm probably overly generously allowing an extra margin of optimism, allowing for unknown unknowns.
I also unironically don't believe in MAD doctrine because I don't believe the current regime would adhere to or respect MAD doctrine, so the logic of it all sort of falls apart and it's hard to know where the predictions made by those cold war theorists will break down in practice along an escalation ladder. But I think we are going to learn that nukes can be deployed and "life will go on" and that will be the end of MAD and we won't replace it.
Unless autonomous weapons platforms just do MAD because some idiot plugged an LLM into them and we've written the script for global annihilation so many times that it maybe have become a natural law in the logic of text prediction.