Image is of a Khorramshahr-4 medium range ballistic missile, which has a range of about 2000km.
As I said in the last megathread, trying to figure out what exactly is happening is becoming ever more difficult. The gist of things is that Iran has, very justifiably, refused to negotiate (assassinating their leader and striking their country with hundreds of missiles in the middle of negotiations causes some reluctance to return to the table, I suppose). Censorship across the Middle East has further ramped up, with reportedly extreme punishments for posting footage of Iranian strikes online. From what I can gather, Iran's number of strikes have stabilized at a comfortable daily rate, with strikes into both the Gulf monarchies and Occupied Palestine continuing apace. Official charts of these strikes over time seem very disconnected from reality on the ground, but again, it's hard to really get at the specifics.
The messaging on how long the war is expected to last is rather muddled on both sides. The Trump administration fluctuates more than daily - and even sometimes in the same speech - on whether the war is already won or whether it's going to last months longer. The US seems to be coming up a new possible scheme every few hours: a ground invasion with the Kurds? A ground invasion without the Kurds? An amphibious assault? A series of commando operations to steal Iranian uranium? A massive parachuting operation into Tehran? Fuck it, let's just send the Navy into the Strait of Hormuz? There doesn't seem to be a coherent plan for continuing hostilities beyond firing more and more of a limited stockpile of cruise missiles into mostly non-military targets, hitting easily replaceable drone and missile launchers with a limited stockpile of drones, and burning a limited stockpile of interceptors at an astounding rate (and, in the process, disarming every other Western-aligned country of their interceptors).
Meanwhile, from Iran, I've seen rumors and reports from classic anonymous "senior IRGC officials" (no doubt some invented by Zionists to sow confusion), that I don't know how to substantiate, ranging anywhere from "If the US pulls back their forces now, we will restart negotiations," to "It doesn't matter what the US or the Zionists do or say, we aren't stopping until every last trace of Zionism in the Middle East has been extinguished," to a few positions in between those poles. Despite the damage to infrastructure in Iran, it doesn't seem like there has been any political or social fracturing. Not to speak too soon - perhaps the West will start earnestly trying to overfly Iranian territory to drop their very plentiful bombs soon - but every indication is that there will be no regime change nor societal collapse in Iran in the short and medium term.
The US is desperately trying - and mostly failing - to keep a lid on the economic firestorm they have ignited. There has been much ado about oil prices and oil futures and indexes and what all the myriad Lines going up and down signify and things like that, which is befitting such a financialized empire which is so disconnected from the actual physical flows of materials and much more attuned to vibes and speeches. The only thing I'm personally paying much attention to on the economic front is the drones and missiles slamming into fossil fuel infrastructure, the Hormuz blockade, and the resulting global shockwave of shortages, stoppages, closures, bankruptcies, and force majeures spreading out from the epicenter that is Iran.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
xcancel.com/netanyahu/status/2033190035764232360
Netanyahu's twitter releases a video of him drinking coffee and referencing the "6-fingered" allegations of AI-video use and his death.
AI allegations:
spoiler
I believe this video to be factual confirmation of proof of life for Netanyahu based on remarkable consistency of background items that enter and leave frame:• Latte pattern visibly disturbed after a sip
• Consistency of coffee bag heights, sticker placement on top shelf
• Tip jar and containers on counter etc.
My guesses for "proof" of continued AI rumors in this video (which I firmly believe are conspiratorial at this point):
• coffee doesn't spill despite carelessness
• presence of masked man behind counter and outside front door (clearly bodyguards)
• depth of field seems common in AI shots (but could for be opsec)
• micro-jumpcuts in video (0:09, 0:20, 0:45, 0:51)
Jumpcuts:
0:09 - no idea
0:20 - retake, or reasonable short cut for his response
0:45 - small glitch?
0:51 - frame rate issue? no idea
Crackpot Theory: If it were indeed AI, then it's possible that only 0:08-0:20 is AI, due to presence of tiny jumpcuts. I don't speak Hebrew, but if the rest of the video outside of 0:08-0:20 contains NO dated references and only generic speech, then it could have been pre-recorded except for an AI generated portion where he shows he has 5 fingers. Unlikely.
Iran should blow up the cafeteria just in case
Iran should blow up all of israel just in case
Okay guys, it's pointless to speculate on this. If he's dead, it changes nothing about the calculus until his body is found and paraded around. It's a given we all want him to rot in hell and would love for that to have already started, but Israel will keep it under wraps either way since it helps them to do so.
So instead of falling for that, do something productive with your time.
Everything is pointless and posting here means nothing. We're all just getting some slop one way or another. Years of in-depth analysis of minute troop movements in Ukraine has had as much meaning as endless doomscrolling on TikTok.
The only thing productive hexbear can be used for is logging off.
This is the current story and fun for some speculation for some, so that's why it's up.
Thank you. I also want to underline that I don't think it's bad being unproductive. We gotta get diversion somehow.
You know I thought about that before typing it and was like, nah surely the Meme will be recognized. Egg on my face. Just a shit post, I'll just delete it and sorry for inadvertently using the wrong pronouns.
https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/115851124/They-hated-jesus-because-he-told-them-the-truth
No need to be sorry or apologise or even delete it. I don't have any pronouns set, so you're far from the first to use he or she. It's all good
The speculation has merit as far as determining how AI actually holds up when used as propaganda, assuming it's actually AI of course. The debate over whether Netanyahu having six fingers is because it's AI or due to video artifacts is just open admission that AI is good enough to replicate low res footage. I think some people try to point out how the cash registry displays "2024" and someone had to download the original footage and play it in VLC for you to clearly see the date as "2026." This means that if someone were to pass a "low res" filter over gibberish text that AI often generates, then they could pass off the tells in the AI fabrication as just low res artifacts.
"Uh aktually, it's obviously AI because you can see so many tells if you go over the footage frame by frame with an 8k monitor." AI doesn't need to be perfect. It just needs to be convincing enough that people on smartphones can't tell the difference.
What's the point in micro analyzing this to tell if it's AI? If he's dead it will become obvious in time. Just wait and see, no?
I suppose the discourse must flow.
Fun to speculate and fantasize. What's the point in commenting on this if you don't get it? Just to feel superior? Just go speculate on whatever bit of news it you wanna obsess over.
It's kinda fun, and to see if AI videos have advanced beyond human detection (if this were eventually proven to be AI). Also, I don't want to sit through days of coming across plausible speculation when I can reasonably disprove it for myself in like 10 minutes lol. More videos are going to be circulating that are AI edited to make the original seem fake, and it's gonna be propaganda all the way down.
Also, if he turned out to be dead since last week and this was the playbook for Israel, that could actually give a lot of insight into their propaganda strategies/limitations, and what we might see for something like Trump dying of cancer in office, for example.
On the other hand, the mere existence of the widespread speculation of his death caused Israel to release a real video of Netanyahu that was rapidly geolocated. So, technically... speculating is a moral imperative. Jokes aside, it indicates how important the illusion of strength is for Israel and I think they rely heavily on controlling the narrative for both domestic and US audiences - which is worth analyzing in its own right.
I could ramble on, but yes, this is not a very important area of discussion in the grand scheme of things.
People need to be able to discern shit in real-time sometimes. Someone's going to post a convincing threat of nuclear attack that requires a more proactive understanding than wait-and-see.
Honestly, I don’t think this is necessarily AI. What is more telling is that he isn’t doing his normal shit- He is prime minister, so it will come to light he is dead eventually- if he is- but, if they announce it two weeks from now from a “health condition” I am going to believe he died in a hypersonic missile attack.
The most telling thing of all is that his death does not really change anything. It could cause some political chaos, but there is more than just one personality behind the war. There is a whole social system in Israel that produced and elevated Netanyahu and Ben Gvir. I am sure their deaths will cause some political chaos in Israel, and will likely lead to some ideological uncertainty for them- which will be good- but their deaths would likely just create a new round of more unhinged and less competent opportunist political leadership
Personally I wouldn't cry for a dead Netanyahu and respect his legitimacy as a target. But if he died this week, he died satisfied that he put his back into his job and made a contribution to the project he believed in. I would rather he would be kept alive while all his underlings and others around him are picked off, and his labors contradicted. And possibly even facing some sort of justice at UN2. Pragmatically it is probably a better idea to make an example of him.
My understanding is in agreement with you that he is an insignificant person. If he were knocked off, I will be very interested to see who can be corralled into a respectful mourning. Maybe some would call for a "fresh start", dare I say it "a pause", for israel while they collect themselves after the tragedy. And then get upset when Iran fails to acknowledge or adhere.
It doesnt have to be completely ai. A real actor and they project his face onto them using "ai".
https://xcancel.com/So_Anywayz/status/2033221218686374037
The place in the video exists and it seems to be consistent. From the author of the tweet above, it could be a mask too.
It doesn't explain the weird way he inserts his hand into his pocket, and neither the coffee's ability to not spill a drop either. Which makes this more complicated
It looks pretty real to me, but I’m often fooled by those “real or AI” reels on TikTok.
The milk not spilling isn’t very suspicious because of water tension and if it’s mostly foam / frothed milk then that’s normal enough.
I don’t see anything weird about the pocket. The fabric doesn’t move much but it looks like a somewhat stiff material.
The suspicious dude in a mask behind the counter is probably and plausibly a bodyguard.
I think the man’s alive.
By pocket i was referring to this FYI (pamphlets is a sensational/bad source, but the video here is in the og one too). The coffee could definitely be a reach
You are probably right. Personally I'm not comfortable to say any opinion at all yet, i'm just waiting for hard evidence on whether he is alive/dead
I think the weird pocket thing is just an artifact of the lower quality of the non-OG video. If you watch the OG video in the higher quality, it looks totally normal, his hand just gets caught trying to open the pocket. The blurry second video makes it look suspicious.
Thanks for the correction eitherway!
Looking at the Coffee from when its on the counter to resting in his hands it looks like the crema kind of just spawns in.
The jumpcuts are sus because they try to hide them. Then again if they were obvious I'd also say they're sus, so you can't never win.
He needs to post a picture of himself with a shoe on his head and a Banana with today's date written on it. Only way to be sure.
Honestly this started as a fun little dunk on a bad article for me, then I just wanted to talk about what his death would actually mean for the war, but now this whole thing has me going
Netanyahu's skin tone and skin quality is not what I expect. It could be makeup + the weird orange lighting. I also see reflections in his eyes that look like professional lighting.
So even though this is more plausibly real - it just looks so much faker than the other one.
Everyone in the background of the video (guards, baristas) are so still - just like you'd expect people to be in an AI generated video. But the male barista has micro-facial expressions I don't believe AI would do.
Plus the jump cuts every 15 seconds, as if they were hitting Sora's limit.
If this is real, which I think it might be, they are trolling the fuck out of everyone.
https://x.com/Chaotic_mind99/status/2033217263449555090
the cup of coffee
the video did look like AI the first time I saw it...hmmmm
https://x.com/PamphletsY/status/2033236021002031109
Ironically this video might be more incriminating than his original 6 fingers thing, that could be chalked up to compression lol
Starting the clip after he's already pushed the fabric to the left (putting it under tension) and slowing it down would make the bounce back look unnatural. But it does look a little weird in the full clip at full speed.
If it were under tension, wouldn't there be creases visible?
The first cut I think is because he did actually spill his coffee a bit. The second cut is because he takes a sip, gets cream on his upper lip, and after the cut he has wiped it off. The other two don't really seem like cuts so much as like, a frame stutter. I really doubt this is AI< but if we find out it is and AI can be this realistic then I'm just never watching another video again.
Flying very close to the sun of antisemitism on this one
No it's because israelis are bad people and bad people don't tip.
This is like calling someone racist for critiquing Obama for perpetuating the global opium trade, because of the crack epidemic that tore through black neighbourhoods.
Israel has a tipping culture, basically the same rules as the USA.
That's how you can tell they're the same country.
Yes and that's why the joke works. In a country without a tipping culture you couldn't imply someone is bad for not tipping
I am a bad person then
or live somewhere that employers are expected to pay worker's wages
Hey I don't tip either, because I don't have the money and don't live in a place where tipping pays wages
Yeah, you're right. In my defense, the joke was that israelis are assholes, but thinking about it now, I realize how it's too close to some nasty tropes. Thanks for calling me out, I'll delete the comment!
I don't think it is antisemitic to make a joke at the expense of people who's entire existence, culture and economy is based on thieving and exploiting (to put it lightly) on the premise that they would be bad tippers.
This is a video of a man who leads a nation of fascists. A fascism which is very specifically founded on using every method available to enrich oneself at the expense of every shed of normal social behavior. A collective that cultivates the an ethic of ostentatiously disregarding every convention and politeness in order to pursue their own ends.
It is a general stereotype about extremely privileged people who are accustomed to exerting visceral control on those around them, that their entitlement leads to casual disregard of those below them. They will spare themselves a cost which is trivial to them but of greater value to their inferiors, unless payment is enforced or it will benefit themselves somehow. The fascist leader depicted is constantly ensnared in corruption scandals due to his entitlement. And will likely live out the rest of his life (or in having died, already has) without any consequences for those much less the crimes against humanity because it is considered not only appropriate but desirable behavior in this iteration of fascism.
those could be something else, like cups half full of granola or something like that
I don't think it's a tip cup because a) they have lids, b) nobody would ever leave 2 full cups of tips sitting on the counter where you can hardly see or reach them as it would eventually be robbed, c) their contents are homogeneous unless everything in israel is only purchased in 1 denomination of coin that doesn't make sense. I can't tell if it's AI but those are not tip cups. I agree some kind of food.