this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2026
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Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.
Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.
All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.
However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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https://t.me/tabzlive/72921
Lindsey Graham admits that the attacks on Venezuela and Iran are about China.
"This is china's nightmare", I say as I shoot myself in the foot. This just makes china and the global south go to rebnewables quicker because the oil markets are getting progressively destroyed. Control of these oil markets also doesn't fully matter like that when russia is rerouting it's fossil fuels to china.
Kinda infuriating that these fuckers destroy a country or 2 or 3 just so they can work themselves upto destroying another country. Why do they want to destroy china? So they can continue destroying and looting countries unchallenged afterwards.
Capitalism reduces humans to no more than tools wielded by Capital to multiply itself.
Reproduction of Capital is the beginning, the middle and the end of all major political decisions by the ruling class in capitalist societies. All flows downstream from this.
This is why so many people say that studying Marxism is akin to seeing "the yellow sing", or being able to glimpse a lovecraftian beast
I've never personally heard or read anyone say that last part, but it's so true, I'll be saying it from now on. Only difference is, Marxism actually helps you stay sane. In Lovecrafts world, knowledge is dangerous and can cost you you're sanity. In our world, knowledge is power. Without Marxism, I'd be confused and angry all the time. With Marxism, I'm still angry, but at least I know why.
The yellow king?
Oops, yellow sign*
I'm not familiar with that expression, where is it from?
Its reference to yellow king. I think the yellow sign represents yellow king in the book
Yeah no shit, Lindsey.
Also, they may have 31% of the world's reserves, but they don't have 31% of the world's production. Sitting on oil you can't get out of the ground because you sanctioned or bombed an oil industry into inoperabilty isn't worth a whole lot.
That's probably just fresh meat for the base, that way they think gas prices will go down and this will be an in and out adventure
Woops, thought this was in response to my other post about Cuba.
I think this is genuinely their strategy. They want to control China's access to any resources they can, and then they want as much control over China's trade partners as possible. They have given up on trying to compete with China industrially, so they will try to control their industrial capacity through resource and trade restrictions, instead.
Also, all of this is good for US oil & gas. Profits for these Trump supporters are going to be way up.
This strategy explains why this timing of attacks was chosen. It's because China has been accelerating renewables and cooperation with Russia at such a speed that the imperialists are worried they won't be able to blockade Chinese energy anymore. So they decided "fuck it" and choose the last resort of going on a global rampage and fucking over China while they still have time. This is (one of) the death throes of the empire.
https://hexbear.net/comment/6963098
everyone should check out this excellent comment by our comrade @Tervell which outlines how unprepared the US is for all-out war with China
So we have
oil-guzzling hyper-polluting capitalist imperialist war pigs attempting to strip mine the entire world and genocide anyone who doesn't bend the knee
vs.
solar powered bridge-and-road-building communists {reluctantly|cannot find word} leading a diverse coalition of underdogs with the power of friendship
Ok, which 90s/00s RTS called it?