MrPiss

Trump's tired about bullshiting that there's a ceasefire so he decided to bullshit about being at total war.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-a-Supply-Crunch-From-Iran-Could-Send-Oil-Back-Below-40-a-Barrel.html

I saw this article on the other day and the author thinks oil prices could go down further after a small rise. The argument is not structured properly so I'll do my best to restructure it in a way that makes sense to me.

A few major factors contribute to the oil price falling. There's a long lead time on oil transit and processing so there's no one big shock which results in higher all at once. Part of the rise and fall are the expectations of lower oil availability before it actually happens along with the market manipulation by the regime. The prices we see traded in futures are not fully tied to actual availability.

The global economy had been generally in a recession for a while except for select industries like AI. A shrinking economy decreases the need for oil. Increased oil prices and less supply further hurt the economy and accelerate the decline. This accelerates the demand destruction. Governments are also contributing to demand destruction by encouraging things like working from home and rationing efforts.

Ultimately, I don't fully believe this but the market manipulation and SPR drain were executed well enough to prevent $200 which allows the growing recession and demand destruction to build up to the point where demand contracts to the point where oil prices decrease. Essentially the demand is now shrinking faster than supply.

In the corner dressed as a hoplite:

Gordian not!

Did it discover pigpoopballs though?

They're out of their fucking mind but this is hilarious. I don't even see any overt malice in this. Which is strange because this is really racist but in an innocent dumb guy way.

This reminds me that I miss xiaohongshu's posts. This has a lot of the talking points. Like, China's export oriented economy being forced into a trade war with Europe by the US tariffs was one of the big things they pushed.

Honestly, while there's certainly some critique to be leveled at Iran for not striking back at the US harder, I feel like the notion of this tit-for-tat pattern being particularly bad for Iran is predicated on assuming that the US will be able to just keep it up forever - which is plainly not the material reality.

To add on to this section, what's Iran supposed to do with more strikes anyway? They've already destroyed some oil infrastructure in the region and significantly destroyed US bases. The Iranians can't just fully destroy Saudi Aramco and commit unlimited war crimes against Israel.

At some point they have to negotiate with the Americans, they have to care about international opinion, and they have to leave room for escalation when the US breaks the ceasefire. Iran can't just burn the entire region to ash around it.

It's unfortunate but that will probably have to happen in the future. This phase that started with October 7th is probably the height of where Israel can get and is being reined in by Iran. The next phases of Israeli history (and their genocide against Palestinians) will hopefully see them constrained and have to give those concessions until the whole rotten thing collapses. Every few years Israel goes to "mow the lawn" so it can't be too far off. I hope Hamas gets good training on fiber optic drones.

It would take years to refill the reserve though. Joe Brandon drained it significantly after the SMO started and it was not cheap enough to refill since then. Refilling the SPR after this war would drive prices much higher than whatever they end up being unless it's done slowly and by then Iran will just have more missile cities.

They're draining the reserve by 10 million barrels a week to keep prices lower. Refilling it at the same rate would shoot prices up and suburbanites would crucify Trump.

Everyone knows that USIS lost the war but the contradictions prevent a peace deal and this is an expression of that. There is no way to go forward with Israeli aggression in the region continuing but Israel cannot exist without uninterrupted violence against Arabs. The capitalist class is torn between wanting war and wanting the straight open (also high and low oil prices). Trump needs to look strong while having lost a war. Imperialism always needs to expand but Iran needs to maintain sovereignty.

Like many things we're stuck between the contradictions until something breaks and allows one of the forces to become dominant. I think peace is only really possible after the US strategic petroleum reserve runs dry and gas prices spike. After that the capitalist class will demand that Israel be restrained to stabilize oil prices. It might take a while to discipline Israel but the economic pain will make it will happen eventually.

China will be in alpha centauri before the US lands on the moon again.