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I still think gold is undervalued, China put a stop to leveraged trading, but I think it'll still rally. Maybe gold isn't undervalued, but in comparison to the USD, I think it will "rise" just because the USD is losing value so quickly.
My only worry is that the house always wins, if these brokerages can't afford to pay out all the contracts from options and futures, they'll try everything they can to make sure they don't have to pay out. What better way to do that than to release your coffers, flooding the market with gold, making the price plummet, and then slowly buy it all back over the course of multiple years
There's a very large gold lobby in the United States and elsewhere, cranking out blogposts, celebrity documentaries and online influencers, all dedicated to scamming the retail buyer out of cash. The winners, as always, are institutional traders with insider information.
Which is just the thing, wether gold is 'undervalued' or not is immaterial. The gold lobby used central bank purchases with a larger dollar collapse narrative to sell gold to retail investors. Those retail investors were the ones driving up the price of gold due to their critical mass, not the central banks, not China and not industry.
I'm not sure that's the case. The retail goldbug has existed for a long time, at least 20 years through the GFC. I'm sure they've piled on in larger volume, but there has also been a fair amount of central bank buying in the last few years, especially China and Poland.
I am firmly in the nothing ever happens camp, de-dollarization will not happen via gold hoarding but by countries altogether refusing to export to the U.S. (beyond 'balancing' the trade), sanctions of sorts. That won't happen unless there is an ideologically aligned states willing to do it or if there is an alternative power willing to supply their currency.
My read of the situation is that most developing countries (except China) will work harder to maintain exports and capital flows from the U.S. in order to sustain imports from China/Gulf and other exporters.
I am not saying gold price won't go up further, I don't know the future. But I can say, while central banks have large balance sheets, they too will get squeamish when more and more of whatever currency they buy Gold with (usually USD, not much liquidity for gold outside USD) is needed as the price goes up. And once the stock of USD (in form of reserves) is exhausted, then what? The Central Bank is stuck holding massive amounts of gold. Will they give this gold to other countries so they can use it to import from the country? I do not think so. Will they give it to the public? Then the public will be holding hoards of gold. If they do decide to sell, they are selling for local currency.
I think the hoarding gold for sanctions (sanctions can be considered kind of a voluntary default on debt by the US) risk is somewhat valid. But that again has the problem, your flows (capital, remittances, trade flows) are currently aligned with the U.S. directly or indirectly.
My point is de-dollarization is a trade and capital flow problem than 'hoards of Treasuries' problem.
One way would be purely local currency arrangements, let's take India and China. China says 'I will accept Indian Rupee (INR) at 90 for 1 CNY up to say, 835 Billion CNY' (that's how much India imported from China mostly by obtaining Dollars from elsewhere in 2025). Now, India can take Rupees it can freely issue and give to China, the PBOC or whatever Gov entity will hold INR. There you go, no need for India to obtain Dollars from elsewhere.
But why would China do that if it can’t spend the rupees anywhere other than India? It would have to convert them to dollars or other currency to be of any use, which means having to find a buyer for them and being vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of rupees
The same question can be asked about Treasuries and USD assets too and yea it's valid, it's a fiscal transfer.
The excuse made is "USD is highly liquid unlike INR or NGN etc", sure but that doesn't change the fact that you are giving the US real resources in exchange for its own financial claims.
Unfortunately, everyone places first world currencies above third world ones.