Welcome to c/news! We aim to foster a book-club type environment for discussion and critical analysis of the news. Our policy objectives are:
To learn about and discuss meaningful news, analysis and perspectives from around the world, with a focus on news outside the Anglosphere and beyond what is normally seen in corporate media (e.g. anti-imperialist, anti-Zionist, Marxist, Indigenous, LGBTQ, people of colour).
To encourage community members to contribute commentary and for others to thoughtfully engage with this material.
To support healthy and good faith discussion as comrades, sharpening our analytical skills and helping one another better understand geopolitics.
We ask community members to appreciate the uncertainty inherent in critical analysis of current events, the need to constantly learn, and take part in the community with humility. None of us are the One True Leftist, not even you, the reader.
Newcomm and Newsmega Rules:
The Hexbear Code of Conduct and Terms of Service apply here.
Link titles: Please use informative link titles. Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed.
Content warnings: Posts on the newscomm and top-level replies on the newsmega should use content warnings appropriately. Please be thoughtful about wording and triggers when describing awful things in post titles.
Fake news: No fake news posts ever, including April 1st. Deliberate fake news posting is a bannable offense. If you mistakenly post fake news the mod team may ask you to delete/modify the post or we may delete it ourselves.
Link sources: All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. If you are citing a Twitter post as news, please include the Xcancel.com (or another Nitter instance) or at least strip out identifier information from the twitter link. There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance, such as Libredirect or archive them as you would any other reactionary source.
Archive sites: We highly encourage use of non-paywalled archive sites (i.e. archive.is, web.archive.org, ghostarchive.org) so that links are widely accessible to the community and so that reactionary sources don’t derive data/ad revenue from Hexbear users. If you see a link without an archive link, please archive it yourself and add it to the thread, ask the OP to fix it, or report to mods. Including text of articles in threads is welcome.
Low effort material: Avoid memes/jokes/shitposts in newscomm posts and top-level replies to the newsmega. This kind of content is OK in post replies and in newsmega sub-threads. We encourage the community to balance their contribution of low effort material with effort posts, links to real news/analysis, and meaningful engagement with material posted in the community.
American politics: Discussion and effort posts on the (potential) material impacts of American electoral politics is welcome, but the never-ending circus of American Politics© Brought to You by Mountain Dew™ is not welcome. This refers to polling, pundit reactions, electoral horse races, rumors of who might run, etc.
Electoralism: Please try to avoid struggle sessions about the value of voting/taking part in the electoral system in the West. c/electoralism is right over there.
AI Slop: Don't post AI generated content. Posts about AI race/chip wars/data centers are fine.
Get it? "Revolting" is a double entendre! Anyway...
As the Trump administration continues to accelerate the flagrant disregard of "international law", we have seen various European leaders flock to China (alongside Canada), seeking deals. Some trips have been more successful than others - for example, Macron's was fairly dire despite his lavish reception by Xi Jinping, but Starmer's resulted in some actual deals and tariff reductions. The intent of this wave of diplomacy with China is clear: leverage.
Nobody should be fooled into thinking this revolt immediately benefits the developing world, of course. While a relative weakening of the US compared to Europe is progressive in a limited sense (insofar as the US is the locus of imperialism), every indication shows that, when it matters, the European consensus remains aligned in most respects with the US, such as with them and the Zionist entity against Iran, against national sovereignty in Africa (e.g. ECOWAS), as well as in Latin America (either in support or not sufficiently opposing American designs there against Cuba and Venezuela, to name but two countries). It is also unclear how long such a divide will last - perhaps Trump leaving office in 2028 and a slightly less bellicose leader in power will result in many cancelled deals with China.
Despite the very shaky initial steps over the past couple years, Europe still has many miles it must traverse to achieve sovereignty, let alone socialism. For now, it will cheer on the sanctions against millions of vulnerable people and incoming bombing of Iran and Hezbollah, though perhaps it will also share a degree of the economic/military retaliation.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Most people, in fact, will not take the trouble in effort posting to find the truth, but are much more inclined to accept the first slop they read. DM me to feature effort posts and good threads in the newsmega/newscomm here (including your own).
Previous posts of the week:
2025: Oct 27 | Nov 3 | Nov 10 | Nov 17 | Nov 24 | Dec 1 | Dec 8 | Dec 15 | Dec 22 | Dec 29
After Elon Musk's xAI acquired Twitter, SpaceX is now acquiring xAI. xAI was quickly burning money, at least $1 billion per month. Tesla gave xAI $2 billion just last quarter, but it looks like that was quickly burnt.
Both were private companies so no real public disclosure was necessary. SpaceX shareholders were probably happy with the merger because most of them are in the Elon Musk cult. Merging with Tesla will be harder to do since Tesla is a private company.
Disinformation? #NotMyGunther
Inconceivable that a NATO enthusiast would lie in favor of the US & EU & Israeli elites. I'm so disappointed.
Luckily, he did redeem himself slightly afterwards by calling for NATO to liberate Ukraine and Iran and blockade Serbia. Thank you, Gunther!
Another logistics issue for the USA in the military buildup against Iran:
After the cold front over much of the continental USA has delayed the transfer of air defence systems to the Middle East last week, the US faces another logistical setback, this time to do with the transfer of tactical fighter aircraft towards the Middle East. While the six EA-18G Growler EW/SEAD were moving from Puerto Rico to Jordan along with mid air refueling aircraft dragging them, they stopped over that Morón Air Force Base in Spain. During the takeoff of one of these KC-46 Pegasus mid air refueling aircraft (2 engined aircraft, converted from a Boeing 767) from Morón, a presumed bird strike disabled one of the two engines of the KC-46. This led to the pilots making the decision to abort/reject the takeoff, while hurtling down the runway full of fuel. While slowing down their stricken KC-46, they blew/punctured 8 tyres, leaving the aircraft immobilised and blocking the sole runway. Thus Morón (ICAO: LEMO) is out of action until February 6th, which meant that only 4 of the 6 EA-18G Growlers made it to Jordan, 6x of the F-35As had to divert to Rota, and the other 6x F-35As never left Puerto Rico. Two KC-46s are now also stranded at Morón, along with 2x EA-18Gs. The loss of Morón until at least February 6th will likely delay the transfer of US tactical fighter aircraft towards the Middle East. They obviously can use other airbases, but two EA-18Gs are currently stranded. Expect some stalling for time here by the USA with regards to Iran.
i feel like amerikkka got green light from someone in irgc, same as venezuela, it seems very strange otherwise to bring delta forces to azerbaijan or wherever.
Do we have evidence VZ was an inside job?
riddle me this, how would it look differently if it definitely was? i mean, ramming oil privatization, releasing the political prisoners (tm), accepting cia director and ambassador of great satan. obviously without classified documents, we only get snippets and interviews, but they all (words by usa & deeds by delcy) paint same coherent picture, for me at least.
last couple of years definitely shed some feely-based blinders for me, if you have porky elite in your country, you won't show any solidarity against great satan and you can get bought out at any point if you are under sanctinos, as your cheap shitty assets under auspices of usa empire become very profitable assets, ussr playbook basically.
(i can even make a falsifiable prediction, if there is a daring raid and series of strikes inside iran, where khomenei and some irgc personnel are disabled, they enter some negotiations with end result being same oil privatization, removal of sanctions and abandoning their allies, that is what happened)
Leadership capitulating and giving all these concessions doesn't necessarily mean it was an inside job though. The US did take losses (they lie about having none) and the US also suppressed the air defenses with SEAD/DEAD, cyber attacks, electronic warfare and likely sabotage. Hundred or so Venezuelans and Cubans were killed.
Yes it does, you don’t write such a law in a month, and get it supported by your party unless it was prepared beforehand. I’m not saying it was inside job as in they did themselves, it was inside acquiescence.
To me the curious question is it no-choice betrayal and they continue on the downlow communities movement, or will they dismantle them to get their kids into boards of directors, so betrayal of opportunity
Thanks to our avian friends for their sacrifice
How costly is any of these delays for the US? Is it impactful in any way?
Long and medium term, not that costly. But in the short term, 14 fighter jets that should be in Jordan now, are not in Jordan.
Apoyo infinito al Camarada Pájaro o7
Petro is now en route to the fucking imperial core.
May god and Marx's spirit protect him
Petro about to sacrifice himself for the revolution like Tassadar
"I will steer the airplane into a collision course with the White House."
Rookie Trader’s Rapid 84% Wipeout Shows Depth of China Gold Bust
article
From hedge funds to homemakers, the leverage-loving Chinese traders behind gold’s record rally are now nursing big losses after one of the fastest market reversals in years.
For Merry Chen, a 42-year-old homemaker in Hangzhou, the foray into precious metals lasted less than a week. With no prior experience in derivatives, Chen opened a futures account last Monday on the advice of friends.
The initial results were promising: she gained 60% on her 1 million yuan ($144,000) investment in just 48 hours. But Friday’s sharp drop wiped out those gains and triggered a forced liquidation, leaving her with a 750,000 yuan loss, down 84% from the peak.
“I never imagined it could be this intense,” said Chen, who plans to close her account. “It felt like a trip to a casino in Macau.”
Chen’s losses are emblematic of speculators who had piled into precious metals before the Friday crash triggered widespread losses and forced liquidations of leveraged futures positions. While part of the trigger was the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the US Federal Reserve, which sent the dollar higher, many had long warned the metals markets were too overstretched.
Spot gold fell as much as 10% on Monday, and is down almost a fifth from an all-time high. Silver plunged as much as 16%, following a record intraday loss in the previous session..
The sharp reversal gave trend-following commodity trading advisor models at Chinese quantitative hedge funds — which typically hold commodities for 3 to 20 days — scarcely any time to adjust, according to Lv Chengtao, a partner at SHQX Asset Management. That came as non-ferrous and energy futures have also retreated, he said.
As a result, many CTA managers’ net asset values would likely have been under pressure Friday and Monday, he said.
Since such CTA holdings are often spread across a wide array of commodities and their leverage is typically lower than 300%, the drawdowns since Friday have been controllable so far, sparing most of them from forced liquidations, he said.
Still, some such funds suffered drawdowns of more than 10%, according to an executive with a Shanghai-based quantitative fund, whose firm cut most of its precious-metal futures positions last week to limit losses. He asked not be named discussing a private matter.
The decline is coming ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, when CTAs tend to cut positions by 30%-50% to reduce risks because offshore trading continues during the week-long break, and that process of reductions has started already, according to a Shanghai-based quant fund.
Chinese banks also took measures last week to limit risks for retail investors in gold-accumulation products. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. were among those that plan to either raise the minimum deposit amount or implement quota controls.
The gold rally has been building for a number of years as central banks expanded their holdings as an alternative to the dollar. It accelerated in 2025 as global investors piled into the so-called debasement trade. Chinese speculators, including individual investors and large funds venturing into commodities, added more fuel to the gains in recent weeks.
One of China’s most well-know investors exited the trade in December. Shanghai Banxia Investment Management Center, a macro hedge fund managing more than 5 billion yuan, sold all its gold holdings in December, even as the asset is expected to hover at elevated levels rather than falling significantly, according to founder Li Bei.
Central banks including Russia’s have been selling gold, and the metal’s price is overvalued compared to its long-term equilibrium level, she said in an interview with the Securities Times’ Wechat account late last month. The opportunity costs of holding gold are very high, she said, citing a potential bull run of Chinese blue chip stocks.
With concerns over the independence of the Fed and geopolitical unrest from Venezuela to Iran making headlines, the gains in metals had become a symbol of growing distrust among investors in the US dollar.
“There’s a simple logic to it,” said Jeff, a freelance investor from Hangzhou who said his holdings of spot and physical gold accumulated over the years are now worth about $1.5 million. “The world is chaotic, so buy some gold.”
He was cautious enough not to trade leveraged gold futures, and felt even more convinced after his escape before silver’s record plunge on Friday. He invested about $500,000 in silver futures contracts and dumped all at $110 an ounce last week, yielding a 100% return.
Now, he’s looking for an opportunity to buy in for the long run, betting demand for precious metals will be underpinned by prospects of a weaker dollar, the China-US rivalry, as well as developments in artificial intelligence. Beyond Comprehension
Charles Wang, a fund manager in Shanghai, is looking at gold stock exchange-traded funds for buying opportunities. He personally invested about 3 million yuan in gold futures earlier, with three-times leverage, before selling his holding at around $3,500 an ounce and making a 30% return.
“I couldn’t wrap my head around it, so I decided to sell,” Wang said.
He bought some gold stock ETFs on Monday for products he manages, and he can gauge gold miners’ earnings prospects based on average metal prices of the past year rather than fixating on short-term price swings of the commodity.
More are adopting a cautious approach. Lu, who runs a 200 million yuan CTA fund in China, said that before the recent rally in gold, his fund gradually liquidated its positions.
“Anything above $4,800 is beyond my comprehension, hence not money I should earn,” said Lu, who asked that only his last name be used. “I’m in no hurry to jump in the market. It’s still a gambling-driven market right now, not an investment-oriented one.”
Someone has to hold the bag :P
“There’s a simple logic to it,” said Jeff, a freelance investor from Hangzhou who said his holdings of spot and physical gold accumulated over the years are now worth about $1.5 million. “The world is chaotic, so buy some gold.”
This line tells you everything about this mentality. They are buying gold because they expect others to buy gold during 'chaos'.
“The world is chaotic, so buy some gold.”
Didn't this exact same thing happen with Trump 1.0?
I still think gold is undervalued, China put a stop to leveraged trading, but I think it'll still rally. Maybe gold isn't undervalued, but in comparison to the USD, I think it will "rise" just because the USD is losing value so quickly.
My only worry is that the house always wins, if these brokerages can't afford to pay out all the contracts from options and futures, they'll try everything they can to make sure they don't have to pay out. What better way to do that than to release your coffers, flooding the market with gold, making the price plummet, and then slowly buy it all back over the course of multiple years
There's a very large gold lobby in the United States and elsewhere, cranking out blogposts, celebrity documentaries and online influencers, all dedicated to scamming the retail buyer out of cash. The winners, as always, are institutional traders with insider information.
Which is just the thing, wether gold is 'undervalued' or not is immaterial. The gold lobby used central bank purchases with a larger dollar collapse narrative to sell gold to retail investors. Those retail investors were the ones driving up the price of gold due to their critical mass, not the central banks, not China and not industry.
Those retail investors were the ones driving up the price of gold due to their critical mass, not the central banks, not China and not industry.
I'm not sure that's the case. The retail goldbug has existed for a long time, at least 20 years through the GFC. I'm sure they've piled on in larger volume, but there has also been a fair amount of central bank buying in the last few years, especially China and Poland.
I am firmly in the nothing ever happens camp, de-dollarization will not happen via gold hoarding but by countries altogether refusing to export to the U.S. (beyond 'balancing' the trade), sanctions of sorts. That won't happen unless there is an ideologically aligned states willing to do it or if there is an alternative power willing to supply their currency.
My read of the situation is that most developing countries (except China) will work harder to maintain exports and capital flows from the U.S. in order to sustain imports from China/Gulf and other exporters.
I am not saying gold price won't go up further, I don't know the future. But I can say, while central banks have large balance sheets, they too will get squeamish when more and more of whatever currency they buy Gold with (usually USD, not much liquidity for gold outside USD) is needed as the price goes up. And once the stock of USD (in form of reserves) is exhausted, then what? The Central Bank is stuck holding massive amounts of gold. Will they give this gold to other countries so they can use it to import from the country? I do not think so. Will they give it to the public? Then the public will be holding hoards of gold. If they do decide to sell, they are selling for local currency.
I think the hoarding gold for sanctions (sanctions can be considered kind of a voluntary default on debt by the US) risk is somewhat valid. But that again has the problem, your flows (capital, remittances, trade flows) are currently aligned with the U.S. directly or indirectly.
My point is de-dollarization is a trade and capital flow problem than 'hoards of Treasuries' problem.
One way would be purely local currency arrangements, let's take India and China. China says 'I will accept Indian Rupee (INR) at 90 for 1 CNY up to say, 835 Billion CNY' (that's how much India imported from China mostly by obtaining Dollars from elsewhere in 2025). Now, India can take Rupees it can freely issue and give to China, the PBOC or whatever Gov entity will hold INR. There you go, no need for India to obtain Dollars from elsewhere.
But why would China do that if it can’t spend the rupees anywhere other than India? It would have to convert them to dollars or other currency to be of any use, which means having to find a buyer for them and being vulnerable to fluctuations in the value of rupees
The prime minister has ordered an "urgent" investigation into Lord Mandelson's contact with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein while the peer was a government minister.
The review comes after another tranche of documents were released, showing the former Labour minister's close relationship with Epstein.
Among those documents, email exchanges appear to show Lord Mandelson, when business secretary in 2009, forwarded internal government information sent to then-Prime Minister Gordon Brown on to Epstein.
of course, they've known about this for years, they have MI6 after all. They are sorry they have been caught. link
<ctrl+F Mossad> Phrase not found
Of course the question remains if Mandelson was just a sex offender + trafficker who got blackmailed to help Mossad, or was he a willing israeli spy, nevertheless, fuck them all, rot in prison
Politicos coverage:
LONDON — Jeffrey Epstein had access to highly-sensitive British government policy discussions at the height of the global financial crisis, emails disclosed in the Epstein files show.
Epstein, already a convicted sex offender at the time, was forwarded on a June 2009 email written by then-Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s senior policy adviser Nick Butler about the government’s response to the banking crunch — addressed to “Gordon.”
It appears the note was sent on by-then Business Secretary Peter Mandelson, who is facing a fresh round of scrutiny over his links to Epstein. The note — disclosed in the latest U.S. Department of Justice releases on Epstein — highlighted the U.K.’s “very substantial asset base,” and said Britain had “saleable assets in hand which are not strategic.”
The correspondence covers Whitehall thinking at the time of a major economic crisis, and it is highly unusual for such top-level discussions to be circulated outside of the British government. The exchange took place a year after Epstein, the late financier, pled guilty to solicitation of prostitution with a minor under the age of 18.
In the chain, Mandelson wrote: “Interesting note that’s gone to the PM.”
Epstein replied: “What salable assets?”
The message by Butler was also sent to Brown’s key civil service aide Jeremy Heywood, his Private Secretary Christina Scott and Parliamentary Secretary to the Cabinet Office Shriti Vadera. There is no suggestion any of them were aware the exchange would be forwarded on to Epstein.
surely this is treason of some kind? probably not by the strict legal definition, as Israel is not an enemy of the UK
The US Navy Faces a Major Challenge in Sustaining Combat Operations off the Coast of Iran
milblogger analysis (abridged)
let’s look at the three guided-missile destroyers that are accompanying the USS Abraham Lincoln.
These three destroyers form the core surface escort force, providing air defense, anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and strike capabilities (via Tomahawk missiles and other weapons in their Mk 41 VLS cells).
The destroyers are equipped with VLS cells. VLS cell stands for Vertical Launching System cell, a modular compartment in naval missile launchers like the Mk 41 VLS that houses one or more pre-loaded missiles vertically below deck. As noted in the last bullet, these cells are also used to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles, which is likely to be one of the weapons fired at Iran. These means that the air defense capability of the USN destroyers will be reduced in order to accommodate the Tomahawks.
If Iran decides to fire 300 drones in a swarm attack on the carrier strike force, and each destroyer fires at least two air defense missiles at those drones, that would require 600 air defense missiles. And there is the problem… If each destroyer is carrying a load of Tomahawks, then they are only carrying a maximum of 100 interceptors. Not only will the destroyers not have enough interceptors to fend-off the attacking Iranian drones, they will deplete their missile stock.
The only way to reload these cells is that each destroyer must sail to a port equipped with cranes that are capable of reloading the VLS cells.The closest port — I am assuming that the port in Bahrain is not available because Iran will have closed the Strait of Hormuz — is in Diego Garcia, which is 3 to 4 days away if each USN ship is traveling at 25 knots.
Iran has five classes of drones that can fly at least 1,000 kilometers, which means that the US carrier strike group will face an increased risk of drone attacks if it sails closer than 1,000 kilometers from Iran’s southern shore. If it stays outside the 1,000 kilometer range, the US carrier task force capability to hit critical targets in Iran will be very limited because the maximum range of a US Tomahawk cruise missile is 1,600 kilometers. In short, if Iran fires hundreds of missiles and drones at the US carrier task force the the US will not be able to sustain combat operations for more than a couple of days.
If Iran decides to fire 300 drones in a swarm attack on the carrier strike force, and each destroyer fires at least two air defense missiles at those drones, that would require 600 air defense missiles. And there is the problem… If each destroyer is carrying a load of Tomahawks, then they are only carrying a maximum of 100 interceptors. Not only will the destroyers not have enough interceptors to fend-off the attacking Iranian drones, they will deplete their missile stock.
That ignores the most valuable asset of a carrier strike group, the air wing, 48 aircraft capable of shooting down drones and cruise missiles. Or the F-15s and F-16s available at bases in the Middle East, which can also shoot down drones and subsonic cruise missiles, equipped with APKWS laser guided rockets. One F-15 or F-16 can be equipped with up to 42 APKWS rockets. That's a deep magazine for shooting down drones and subsonic cruise missiles. Propeller driven one way attack drones fly slowly, given the potential position of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group around Oman, these drones will take 8+ hours to reach it. That's 8+ hours to figure out an intercept solution before they get close to the carrier and require the destroyers to engage them.
There are multiple models of one way attack drones with the required range, but how many are equipped to track and engage a moving target at sea? That's going to require some sort of datalink to give the drone an updated position of the moving target so it can alter it's course towards it. Most are for striking static land targets, which won't be able to target ships, and reduces the available inventory of appropriate drones.
As for subsonic cruise missiles, their significantly increased speed makes them more of a threat and a viable tactic for a swarm attack on a target, they'd probably take between 60-90 minutes to reach the position of aircraft carrier. But again, Iran's short range cruise missile arsenal won't have the required range, and their long range arsenal for hitting static land targets won't be able to engage ships, Iran will be limited to using longer range cruise missiles with the guidance systems needed for anti ship missiles (Paveh anti ship version). And the cruise missiles can be engaged and shot down by aircraft, including those equipped with APKWS.
Anti ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) are probably Iran's most viable weapon. They can't be shot down by aircraft, take 6-12 minutes to arrive, and require the use of specialised interceptor missiles (SM-3 and SM-6) to shoot down. However, the aircraft carrier will likely be positioned outside the range of most of Iran's shorter range ASBM arsenal, requiring the use of more exotic longer range weapons to engage the carrier strike group, like Qassem Basir. Not all of Iran's ballistic missiles are anti ship capable, the ones that are usually have electro optical guidance (a camera) in the warhead to try find and then steer the maneuverable warhead/re-entry vehicle towards the ship. This is quite different from a cruise missile and difficult to get accurate enough to hit a ship, yet alone a moving ship.
That's the main effect Iran's arsenal of shorter range anti ship weapons accomplishes, keeping the aircraft carrier further away at this stage.
As for surface strike, yes the destroyers will have a few Tomahawks and likely expend them very quickly. But that's not the only option for cruise missile strikes. An Ohio class guided missile submarine can be equipped with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles and get very close to Iran, much closer than surface vessels. And then there's the AGM-158 JASSM series of cruise missiles that can be launched by tactical fighter aircraft in the Middle East, and strategic bombers flying out of the continental USA. One F-15 can carry up to 5 JASSM, one B-52 20 JASSM, one B-1B 24 JASSM. And the USA is not going to be firing cruise missiles endlessly. With the kind of aircraft they are moving towards the Middle East (F-35s and EA-18Gs with NGJ pods), the US plans to enter Iranian airspace, suppress air defences and conduct an air campaign in that manner, if the decision is made to do so.
I also don't think they'll send the destroyers to reload Tomahawks once they've fired all of them, a more relevant constraint is the amount of anti ballistic missile interceptors onboard the destroyers (SM-3 and SM-6) vs stocks of Iran's long range ASBM arsenal (Qassem Basir and Zulfiqar Basir), and any sort of left of launch defeat strikes the US will aim to impose on these long range ASBM fireteams. If destroyers run out of SM-3 and SM-6, they'll need to go and reload somewhere. As for intercepting cruise missiles and other aerodynamic targets, the Evolved SeaSparrow Missile (ESSM) can be quad packed into a MK 41 VLS cells using the MK 25 canister, meaning a single MK 41 VLS cell can hold 4 ESSMs. So that's worth keeping in mind, it's mentioned in the article.
In a "kill chain", the required steps to successfully complete and verify a "kill" in military doctrine are Find, Fix, Track, Target, Engage, and Assess (F2T2EA). That's a lot more difficult than it seems, especially with regards to naval warfare. This is why a lot of the constraints above apply.
So no, I don't think the aircraft carrier strike group will run out of steam within days, unless Iran manages to fire a large amount of long range ASBMs to exhaust interceptor stocks and force the carrier strike group to go defensive and leave the area.
Good analysis comrade, too much underestimation of imperialist forces in peoples comments and analysis these days. Your posts and research are much appreciated in keeping expectations level headed.
I think a lot of people are still under the influence of that US military exercise where they fought an "Iran-like" enemy and lost. That was like 20 years ago with 20 years old tech. Today, the technological gap is so big we don't even know where to begin...
They failed completely to bring Yemen to heel like a year ago. Iran has more targets for the US to shoot at but I don't seem them capitulating either
TBF to Millenium Challenge 2002 -all the Generals tomfoolery notwithstanding- that was a specific scenario for a land-based invasion, as comrade Marmite points out many a time, they don't really need to do that and have the capability to just airstrike and standoff strike whatever they want these days, and that serves their interests insofar as they want to try and instigate regime change. I still believe the US would effectively lose a land-based invasion, though that has more to do with American logistic strains than anything else, and it would be a months to years long siege conditions where Iran suffers immensely.
At this point, the propagation of that exercise is a disinfo campaign to make people underestimate the US military.
what is the likelihood Iran even fires at the carriers, havent they been hesitant to hit anything substantial so far? what are the odds Iran just warns the US theyll hit some random pre-evacuated base like before
I assume Iran will wait for the US to strike first, and I assume the US first strike will be to destroy anything and everything Iran could use to destroy these ships.
So really it's a game of intelligence. If the US successfully hits all the drone sites, Iran can't strike back. If US intelligence misses a few or Iran successfully defends against some of these strikes and Iran has enough drones left to counterattack, we might be in for some fun times.
The argument is that if the US still wants to strike Iran after Iran has given up the nuclear program and allowed the previous strikes, that the US won’t be happy with anything other than installing a puppet regime which means there is no longer any sense in restraint.
last
Will this be the first news mega to not have a single comment over 1 hour after being posted? No it won't.
First.