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EDIT: Looks like talks are back on, thanks @companero@hexbear.net for the update. Nuclear talks only in Oman, Iran got their way. Maybe Trump doesn't have the heart to actually do a strike knowing it could lead to a regional war the US can't just back out of. Who knows.
To the surprise of absolutely nobody, the "negotiations" between the United States and Iran have apparently broken down, mostly because the United States wants Iran to stop pursuing their missile program and that's a massive red line for Iran, totally not up for discussion. As expected, looks likely the United States will instead strike Iran this weekend.
Per https://www.axios.com/2026/02/04/iran-nuclear-talks-canceled-witkoff
There is no "small victory" for Iran, or defeat for that matter. The US is going to stick to its itinerary whether or not the Iranians meet, beyond perhaps total subjegation that would amount to a similarly catastrophic state of affairs.
Nonetheless, if they're going to get American warplanes over Tehran, they may as well lure the softliners into getting their shit rocked again. The compradors will have lost all credibility should they insist that the empire is worth bargaining with.
The Axios article you linked got updated.
The "negotiations" have been un-cancelled after the Gulf states feared for their ~~lives~~ oil money. Nuclear talks only. A small W for Iran.
This doesn't change the fact that the talks are a farce to begin with. The US isn't particularly worried about nukes or ballistic missiles. They want an Iranian puppet regime in place to help strangle China.
What I am interested in this time, should another round of this conflict commence is that Khamenei'z English twitter account stated that if this conflict recommences this time, it will be a "regional war". The read I take from that is that Iran is publicly threatening that another attack on Iran will not lead to just retaliation against the US but also retaliation against countries in the region actively aiding the US, which has been my stance since early 2024 on what Iran needs to do if it wants to accomplish its goals in this conflict. Countries like Jordan and the UAE have participated in the interception of missiles fired at Israel by Iran with no real consequence, on top of their own economic and political complicity or active and enthusiastic participation in this regional conflict and genocide, and will continue to do so until they actually face consequences.
I hope the Iranian leadership follow through with this. The United States has shown time and time again it is not something to be negotiated with, and they will demand more and more until you're dead. The explicit goal this time is regime change, and all of Iran's Axis of Resistance has been pretty much dismantled. There's little left to lose.
May the missile defense systems of the little and great satans suffer catastrophic failure
how i pray that iran gets some joker who wants to blow up burj kalifa, blockade straight of hormuz and explode qatar as an opener response and set oil fields on fire everywhere with their short range missiles. but you just know they will meh meh their way into dipshittery.
Yeah no surprise talks are collapsing. Even more of a farce than last time.
This really depends on how the airlift goes with regards to transportation of air defence systems, moving tactical fighter aircraft to the Middle East, etc if the US wants to stick to the current plan. The US has had two large logistical setbacks, which is probably why they even tried to initiate these talks, to buy time.
Signs to look out for if the US wants to move faster:
If we don't see this in the next few days, I'll assume that the US will wait longer for more build-up. The US can absolutely strike now if they wanted, or any time previously or after because of their global strike capabilities though. I'm basing the previous sentence on previously observed patterns when Trump takes military action, going back to Syria 2017 US strikes, and most recently against Iran last year and Venezuela last month.
One factor here that was not present any time previously is the air wing of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, one of the most advanced in the US Navy. Not only so they have operational F-35Cs and EA-18Gs with NGJ pods, but also "long range kill chain weapons" such as air launched SM-6/AIM-174B Gunslinger multi purpose missiles for their F/A-18 Super Hornets. These are missiles capable of air to air engagements at ranges in excess of 200nmi/230mi/370km, using F-35Cs and E-2D Hawkeye aircraft to complete the kill chain. (F-35 tracks target, passes on information to E-2D, back to the F-18 or datalinked to the AIM-174B). This may mean that F-22s aren't needed for air superiority.