This isnt chess. The government and military are still intact, the VP seems vehemently against rolling over, it just pisses off America's enemies more and lets them know that kidnapping a head of state is now on the table and they'd better close the Kidnapping Gap and be more ready for that possibility and look into how to do it themselves. That just leads to holding foreign kings for ransom again, it's not done cause under a system that isnt absolute monarchy the snake works just fine without the head, no one does this cause it's pointless and opens up equally dirty retaliation, if a head of state orders the kidnapping of another head of state the target could be more on them personally than before, which usually people who want to stay alive try to avoid. How does this advance American Interests as opposed to a more normal act of aggression? Seems like really bad strategy to me.

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 19 points 1 week ago (1 children)

I proposed a theory in the news mega.

It's possible that after Bolivia's failed coup, where Morales escaped to Mexico instead of being successfully killed as they would have planned for the US learned some lessons.

What happened after this? The left in Bolivia split into two factions. One that wanted to restore Morales and one that wanted to move on and thus supported Arce. This ultimately occurred because Morales survived and it has led to the right taking power there.

Perhaps then the US is attempting to create similar circumstances, create two factions within the Venezuelan left, one that wants to restore Maduro and one that wants to move on. Aim for this to split the left and bring the right to power.

Had Morales died, the right wing coup would have failed and the right would in fact not have later taken over the country. It is plausible to me that someone drew from this the idea that generating multiple leftwing leaders preys on the left's tendency to split.

[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 13 points 1 week ago

The big problem for this strategy is that Maduro is being held hostage by American terrorists. Evo was exiled but was able to return home once the dictatorship fell. But in the case of Maduro, as long as he remains in the great Satan's dungeons, which he will unfortunately be for a very long time as nobody has the means and motives to force the regime to release the hostages, there's no way for a hypothetical Maduro wing to actually get him back and there's no pressing need for a hypothetical anti-Maduro wing to strip him of his formal position. There might be factional infighting over policy but I don't see how there could be over Maduro as a person and a symbol, he's a martyr now and bot factions would have reasons to claim him as their own.