Image is a map of the Western Sahara, sourced from this article in the Middle East Eye. Much of the information in the preamble also came from there, as well as this article.
November 6th marked the 50th anniversary of Morocco, under King Hassan II, beginning the invasion and occupation of much of the territory of the Western Sahara. Today, approximately 80% of the territory of the Western Sahara is controlled by Morocco, with the Polisario Front - the government of the Sahrawis - controlling the rest, hugging the border of Mauritania. Between them lies one of the longest walls and one of the largest minefields on the planet, of which construction began in the 1980s.
The legitimacy of Morocco's control over the Western Sahara is one of those long-lasting diplomatic issues which ultimately doesn't seem to matter very much in terms of on-the-ground realities, and reveals the eternal uselessness of the United Nations especially in regard to actually helping oppressed people. Up until about 2020, the US and certain other Western countries did not formally recognize Morocco as having sovereignty over the whole territory, but in terms of providing genuine opposition to Morocco, it seems that Algeria is the major player in the region. While American, European, and Moroccan corporations exploit the fisheries and phosphate minerals of the region, protected by their minefields (and claims of merely advancing the cause of renewable energy development, AKA greenwashing), Algeria provides what aid they can to support the displaced Sahrawi people, many of whom have been forced to live in refugee camps.
On October 31st, the US put forward a resolution in the UN Security Council which was adopted (Russia and China abstained) and provided major support to Morocco, urging the Polisario Front to adopt the 2007 "autonomy plan", which would, despite its name, be synonymous with an end to their independence movement. Such a plan was met with much jubilation in Morocco, with King Mohammed VI remarking "From now on, there will be a before and an after October 31, 2025.” Such a date was also the catalyst for the PF intensifying their guerilla struggle against Morocco, as legal avenues for autonomy and basic human rights are running out as the imperialists grow more desperate.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio apparently spoke with U.S. Senator for South Dakota Mike Rounds, and confirms (if you believe him) what most have suspected, that the "Ukraine - Russia peace plan", was a leak from Russian sources to the media.
Source
Looks like Rubio is putting his foot down, distancing himself and the United States from the "peace plan". Witkoff again, looks like a complete idiot. Also saying, importantly, that Rubio is unaware of any threat by the US to stop intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
As a reminder:
Update: As expected with stuff like this, the denial and walk back from Rubio himself, who publicly states that the plan was authored by the USA.
Amateur hour fully taken advantage of by professionals.
Pretty much. A bunch of amateurs being taken to the cleaners in diplomacy, that have no idea on what they're signing off on. The only guy in the Trump admin you could say is a professional in statecraft is Rubio. The rest are a bunch of lackeys employed by Trump so that he can have direct control. Witkoff is the liason for direct communication with foreign leaders, Kushner is Trump's son in law, Hegseth is the drunkard that gets to play the big general, Trump hates the FBI for investigating him he put Patel in charge to keep them busy, Gabbard is in there to debunk "Russiagate", Vance is a Thiel implant they're trying to mould into a successor.
What's really surprising is just how immensely unintelligent Vance is. This is the guy who thinks WW2 ended via negotiation. Who came across as more foolish than Hegseth in the leaked messages on Yemen. He has zero idea about geopolitics and foreign policy. Which is why I'm guessing Trump is trying to pitch Vance - Rubio as a joint ticket for 2028, because even Trump can see just how out of his depth Vance is on foreign affairs.
Yeah that sounds about right. It reads like a genuine attempt by the US to reach a deal, while stretching Russia's limits.
The use of frozen assets for pseudo-reparations (some of which would be paid to the US for rebuilding contracts) and the permanent Kherson/Zaporizhzhia freeze are probably deal breakers for Russia.
Anyone who even entertained for a single moment the notion that a plan which includes the idea of gifting 100 billion of Russia's stolen reserves to Ukraine came from the Russians should lose all credibility when it comes to commenting on this conflict. Same with the idea of allowing Ukraine to keep an army of over half a million men, or allowing Ukraine to continue to occupy constitutionally Russian territory. It was clear from the start to anyone with a brain that this half-baked "plan" didn't come from the Russians but from the incompetent jokers in the US administration trying to triangulate some nonsensical "middle ground" between fundamentally incompatible positions.
The money I can see being worth it to Russia in some specific scenarios, given the alternative wartime cost to the Russian economy - which isn't only monetary but is also limiting Russia geopolitically, as it can't devote much resources to any other conflict at the moment.
However, the billions lost would only be worth it if it meant a very favorable deal otherwise. Allowing a highly militarized Ukraine is a deal-breaker for Russia.
This is actually incredibly funny because no one anywhere on earth will ever trust a European bank again if this happens.
Which would be another win for the Americans
I'd let them have that W in order to destroy the European banking system, TBH.
I honestly think Rubio told the senators the truth, and didn't expect them to go public with it. And now the walk back is necessary to keep his job.
Input from Ukraine likely consists of corrupt Ukrainian officials editing point 27 so they can claim amnesty. I don't see much other input from Ukraine.
US input is trying to make off with frozen Russian assets, if that. And the Witkoff - Kushner - Vance clique signing off.
I don't see how a Kherson/Zaporizhzhia freeze is a deal breaker. It's been rumoured to be on the table since the Alaska summit. The primary objective of a land bridge to Crimea is secure. The rest is politics, mainly cooked up by Russian hubris in 2022 when they decided to declare all of that part of Ukraine as Russian via constitutional amendments, not realising how vulnerable their position was. Russia is not stupid, they know that taking Kherson city again is years away at best. They just spent 15 months to grind away at a city with a prewar population of 60 000 in Pokrovsk and take it. Kherson city would be a much more complicated and difficult operation. Pre war population of 280 000, amphibious crossing of the Dnieper river required.
Ukraine is leaving the southern front increasingly unprotected. They will abandon Odessa & Kherson before Kiev. There are already rumors of russians preparing an invasion of korabel/ostrov island. Though I assume the actual operation is still ways off. Pokrovsk wasnt just a city of 60.000 but the logistical center of the dontesk front since 2014 and thus received the defenses of such, pokrovsk is also in a relatively dense urban metropolitan region.
If true then it means Ukrainian leadership is even dumber than I currently think them. Kiev isn't the lynchpin of a hypothetical postwar economic recovery, the port facilities at Odessa are. A landlocked rump Ukraine is economically doomed.
as a counter to this, ukraine seems to have been severely weakening huge amounts of the front line in order to try and stabilize pokrovsk, saw some reporting on r/ukrainerussiareport that near huryipol (i dont know how to spell it and im not goinig to bother to look up how) that it is complete chaos over there, no orders from command, soldiers having to keep track of where the russians are with fucking DeepState (lmao!!!). all this to say by the time they would even get near kherson im not sure how much resistance ukraine will still be able to scrounge up at that point
"We, a neutral intermediary, forwarded it to Ukraine, a sovereign country, who will make their own independent decision about it. But it's a terrible deal! We would never accept it if we were in their shoes!"
It absolutely was a real bilateral (US-Russian), probably work-in-progress deal that was leaked.
Bilateral insofar as Witkoff and Kushner probably saw it and signed off on it hoping to engineer something, and Trump and Vance don't care and just want the Ukraine war to end, hence trying to force Zelenskyy to sign it. Some of the terms were so favourable to Russia I cannot see any serious decision makers within the US government signing off on this. I mean part of it was Russia having a say in NATO expansion and force posture through a US mediated "de-escalation" measure! How can anyone expect that to actually go through?
Ukrainian collapse is looming, for real this time. Both in terms of combat lines and their energy grid.
I think they could take an embarrassing peace deal as long as they can shift most of the blame onto Ukraine and Zelensky (point to corruption, perhaps?).
Ukraine take an embarrassing peace deal, sure. But some of the points were beyond that and aimed directly at countering US - NATO interests, playing on the gullibility of folks like Witkoff. Honestly incredible work by Russia here to get the plan so far. Best information operation since the Taurus leak. The Taurus leak was quite something, Germany still can't send Taurus to Ukraine because of it. In the context of this war, that's as good as blowing up the Taurus factory. And not a single bomb or missile was needed.