Deter China militarily in the event of a Taiwan crisis ? No
Enter into a proxy war with china that drains and hurts china in a degree that benifits the US more than the near socioeconomic collapse of Japan this entails hurts the US ? Also no. They might even lose territory or end up with a unpredictable scenario where the US is forced out of Japan
So US Vassals will be at the same time both engage in proxy conflict with China without the US at remotely the same degree of capability as Ukraine and also be practically collapse socioeconomicaly at a faster rate that China ? Literaly the only who could play that role in a non sci-fi scenario is a Japan that isnt a China trade embargo and energy crisis away from a level of national suicide unseen in decades (that would also drag the USA economy to the gutter too)
And they dont even share a border? How are they supposed to do the protracted proxy war stuff? Naval battles with the in PLAN in the SCS and lobbying missilies in the mainland? Not only is that capeshit but they also may just get nuked lowkey
All these scenarios boil down to X country doesn't do it and if they do china is moderately unnoyed and hurt while X country kills itself for decades because they are scenarios without the us and china entering into a shooting war which is the only one thats realistic and matters and. Thats a completely different conversation from what you are entertaining. What the other countries do or wont do or can do and what happens to them is practically the same as before and a sideshow
Every single "proxy" in the region is impacted by this situation much more than China. They import more of their energy, more of their oil, cant rump up purchases from russia, have practicaly zero reserves, dont have the institutional capacity to actualy reorient priorities internaly in a situation where oil cant get from the ME to SEA and more. Any planets allying successful "strangling" of Chinese oil imports cant happen without completely destroying other SEA and even Middle Eastern Economies at a faster rate than China's are. Especially considering most of these Countries have China as their number one trade partner.
And thats even assuming there is a proxy in the region willing and able to start serious shit with China and can , without direct US military involvement and shooting, do anything but annoy China (there isnt). Who ? South Korea ? No??? The Phillipines ?? Lmao ? Taiwan?? Taiwan starting crisis while the US is not a direct party in the shooting stuff is Chinas dream scenario militarily, oil shortages or not its over
Fighting in Taiwan, if it breaks out, cant be outsourced to Taiwan, Japan, SK or whatever combination of nations you can imagine. Without immediate and major US intervention Taiwan falls within weeks or at worst a couple of months and China brushes off anything any US dog can throw at them at the particular theater. Hell these countries cant throw anything of significance that or cant be placed in an american military base on their soil. Ukraine comparison make no sense. Ukraine is a huge ass country with a larger standing army and more hardware than most of EUrope combained, land borders with their allies and a frothing anti-russian nationalism and an abundance of poorer people that either want to be grinded to rince meat killing russians or can be forced to. There is no "Taiwan quagmire" to be had. Without US intervention China blockades Taiwan from energy inputs and if they are more vicious, food and medicine, and Taiwan folds relatively quickly. Way way way quicker than any economic or trade pain the US can inflict upon China. Japan or SK wont challenge the blockade on behalf of the US and literaly cant challenge the blockade it without the US actively doing so as well.
China will not make a move on its own and that is their consistent position. They will attack if Taiwan makes a move unilaterally breaking the status quo. Not Pelosi visiting or some arm sale that will be delivered in 8 years and is half useless for Taiwans situation. But something like a constitution change,an independence announcement, a referendum announcement, or a move from taiwan to actualy form some military pact with someone or host us or other forces at significant scale.
xhs posting is getting a bit out of hand when you try to apply it in stuff like this. This is an open kinetic invasion or siege of Taiwan we are talking about. It will take 1-2 months at the absolute longest or it is already lost and if the Chinese begin it they wont stop midway and give up because "uhhh Local finance vehicles liquidity and dept issues 3 months from now or marginal oil shortages in trucking in like 6 months".
So the US plan is China's dream scenario ?Taiwan unilaterally initiating kinetic violence which does minimum to moderate damage , justifying an overwhelming Chinese response and annexation with way way less room for western allies or even the us to possibly assist Taiwan. Why would the US want to create a situation where if they dont act they lose Taiwan and as such begin the end of US power in east asia or if they do act they also probably still lose taiwan while losing a military conflict in Chinas backyard and accelerating their retreat from asia 100 fold. One has to believe either "chinas stuff dont work , us has special secret alien tech weapons" or "uhh Malacca Straight blockade checkmate" redditor analysis to make this be a gambit that makes sense. And every year that passes it becomes a worse gambit.
Sure you can say "US is an unhinged empire it will initiate into a suicidal conflict it will likely lose and destroy the world if its going bad to stop China from rising". But if thats true and the US is dead set at that there is nothing anyone, including China can do about it other than maximizing its military power in the context of a conflict with the US and allies (at best japan and phillipines, so just Japan) at its backyard. So that they take over taiwan quickly enough that thing is over before the US can do much and then dont have anything to fight china for or be dominant enough that a non completely insane administration just doesnt enter because it would mean humiliation.
Either way that entire scenario is ignoring the fact that China would learn about any of this the moment Taiwan does as well. The ROC military, intelligence service and politics are infiltrated by spies and sympathisers to a hillarious degree
Capacity, existing or installed, is different from the actual percentages of power generation by source. Fossil Fuels are ~64% of Chinas actual power generation atm, not 80
Predicting a bounce back GDP growth in the immediate post zero covid years of 7%+ is very different from predicting a sustained 8% growth for 20-40 years? In what page is the latter forecast made ?
i would be interested to see how and when and by who this "government expectation of 8% growth for the next 30 years" was formulated and endorsed. Because framing it as "this was the projection of the chinese government" carries an enormous amount of weight. Not some article or statement by whatever associated economist. The closest i found is this https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/incoming/adviser-reckons-china-can-achieve-constant-growth-8 from 2013 and it wasnt by someone too important and there was pushback against it even then .
China's growth was already slowly trending downwards and plateauing at 6% for an entire decade pre covid but the Chinese Government expected that the next 20-30 years would average 8% and where making their plans based on that? A number they didnt hit ONCE after Xi took over to begin with ?
KKE got a lot of hate and short term political consequences for refusing a chance to form a coalition with Syriza in the wake of the latter's rise. In the peak of political and economic crisis, with the far right quickly rising, being offered to be junior partner in government to a relatively radical in rhetoric Demsoc party that had its roots in communist movements, that had popular support to enact stuff and even break with the EU. One that just shattered a long standing PASOK-ND two party system.
Quite a deal right? You push the left government even further left. Have a chance at power and to lead a channel a popular movement. Get ministries etc. Most communist parties and a lot of people here even would probably think that as a good idea. The old CTH community surely thought so.
But the monolithic crank Stalinists in KKE said no way. That Syriza would enact neoliberalism and austerity just as obediently as any other bourgeois government. . That the "good intentions" without a guiding ideology and revolutionary theory and hold among the people would evaporate under the pressure of US and international capital and that in the end both Syriza, democratic socialism and the YES/NO referendum (for the EU deal/memorandum) Syriza paraded was false choice and an illusion and the result would be exactly the same. That Syriza and that movement cant stop and wont stop the rise of the far right. That KKE could never partake in such a farce, lose itself and its integrity in trying to navigate reformist incrementalism through power sharing under a capitalist government and then be punished for it. That they would be in the streets and in parliament against Syriza and their anti-worker policies just as they were against any other face capital puts.
Look i dont want to lionize the KKE that much. I wish they were better in a bunch of issues. But these are in hindsight obvious marxist and leninist analysis and strategy that people then and the left worldwide even now still cant get right and follow it up with a coherent strategy and message. KKE did because it is party with 100 year history that fought fascism, dictatorships, illegality, bled and was persecuted, ate shit in informing past popular fronts or coalitions, split and reformed. There is institutional experience, historical consiousness and deep theoretical vetting and programs from the lower to the highest tiers of party membership.
They were willing to stomach the pushback. Their numbers drop to their lowest just as Syriza was elected. They were hunted (and still are) by "you never want to govern, you only want to scream at the streets, you dont want power or have a plan for it" narratives . But just 10 years after they are in their strongest position in a while. And their own mistaken stances in some issues hold them back more. Sure they have some dumbass almost Maoist-Trot foreign policiy stances and they arent good in LGBT issues (though to be fair not in British communist tier) . But in a country where communists lost the civil war and were persecuted and illegal for decades, in a europe were anti-communism is going into another gear...a hard Marxist-Lennist party being at ~10% polling wise and having the more thorough and solid grassroots, neighbour and workplace organizing in the country is something that indicates that they have done a lot of things right. Things that communist parties in most of the west failed to do and that results in their current state or nonexistance. There are things to learn here for sure
A significant enough blow to the PLAN and mainland industry ( there are more military and military -civilian capable factories in single provinces than there are US missiles that can reach them from US bases/shorties by the way) comes with a with practicaly any US land installation close to China in ruins, hundreds of latest gen airframe losses and assuming they try to put ships into the equation, just as heavy of a blow to the USN. US power in asia is crippled for longer than it takes China to rebuild