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dart board;; science bs
rule #1: be kind
Look at this dip during the last week !
Source : ClimateReanalyser.org and NSIDC
Could it be an anomaly with satellite imaging, a random statistical blip, or is something huge just about to start ?
We are Big F in the uck department
Super El Niño is really messing everything up.
I’ve been following sea ice extent for a long time and the number one thing I’ve learned is to not get caught up by any given blip. Sea ice is a complex, slow moving system, so any wobble on the line in a given year is basically meaningless. Look at the year to year and decade to decade trends.
Like you, I've been looking at those graphs almost daily since 2023, but this dip caught my eye.
I have no idea what this data is, but I have the gut feeling that we are fucked
this is showing the history of area of sea covered by ice around Antarctica (South), with each curve being a different year.
In this context, less sea ice is bad news. It is winter there, so the overall ice is still strong. Summer is what matters most (you can see the months on the chart.) Although, leaving winter with less sea ice can make the summer ice situation worse.
Not completely fucked yet, but being fucked a bit more every year. But fixing things means doing unpopular stuff and not being elected next time.
I honestly believe we are fucked. Even if he would reach net 0 today we would still be fucked.
That we are not completely fucked yet on climate change has been false for quite a while.
Factoring in our societies, there was never any chance we would change, and feedback loops are already amplifying, that is what will sink us. The permafrost melting will overwhelm the planet's ability to absorb carbon. Yay for anaroebic life!
Messing with the aliens base is bound to not be good for us.
This has been my gut reaction for the last years of climate related news, lately extending to all other news as well….
I know, Farage winning against Binface has been a shock for me as well
Binface just showed us a path to reform candidates though. He got solid numbers, 26 percent or something. With a blended joke/real candidate, we could win.
Regardless the US needs this organization of joke candidates that the UK has. I forget what they call it. Loony something.
A blip, just like other temporary abberations in other years.
As someone who doesn't have a background in climate science, I think it's a really bad idea to look at this and start panicking without context. Just saying
Hopefully. But there are parts of the climate that are delicately balanced and may suddenly cut loose, like potential Gulf stream collapse.
Sure, there is more than plenty other reasons to panic 😁 Like some projections of a Blue Ocean Event for 2027... Or the recent observation of the acceleration of global warning 🥳
Man, you're gonna look daft in a few weeks when the ice shelf falls off and the wave drowns half the coastal population centres...
i got my maga branded panic food cart to hide in, im all good thank you
No. This is a sharper momentary dip. Sort of expected with climate change.
If you look at the summer months for 2025, (January and February for the southern hemisphere) you can see ice sheet area declined far more rapidly rapidly than 2026 did.
Rates of change, particularly ones that are of more recent data, can be very misleading. Now if the same rate of change continued through the end of August, then it would definitely be anomalous.
Climate change does not make immediate impacts like this. Climate change makes the trend of the WHOLE line lower, and more volatile. Notice that 2025 and 2026 lines are at the lower end of the graph.
One (ugly) way to understand this chart better would be the area under the curve for a given year. As 2026 isnt over yet, you cant do this reliably beyond the most recent data point.
The "big" thing then would be if the result for each year was successively lower.
I know all that, but we also had two years well above the other ones regarding sea surface temperature : 2023 and 2024. Now we seem to be heading for the strongest El Nino ever recorded, even by a wide margin. So I'm now expecting the unexpected. Let's hope you're right.
With the super el niño I think this year is supposed to be the warmest on record (so far) so unfortunately I would not be surprised if the lack of sea ice is more concentrated in the northern hemisphere.
Firstly, of course we need to be taking immediate action on climate change.
Secondly, i m aware of the trajectory in that sea ice is reducing each year.
That said, my guess is that this is a blip. Ok it might be a sudden tipping point but I think it's more likely that it's a problem with the data.
I mean there's always something happening, so yes.
Looks like a pretty significant dip yeah. No idea if it's just an unseasonably warm bit that evens out, or if the ice started retreating really early this year. Normally the peak is in September, not August.
There are ups and downs all over the chart. This is well within normal range from what you can see here. OP should never put any money into the stock market on their own.
Eyeballing it, it looks sharper than anything else before melt season.
But eyeballing charts is also not a good investment strategy.
Eyeballing it, I see similar shapes to the left of the indicated point, in the line at peak of the chart, and in the line at the bottom of the peak.
Climate change is a huge problem, but this tiny section isn't indicative of anything. You can find animations of this chart showing new lines peaking lower almost every year, and that's horrifying.
I don't see it. I see faster melts during melt season, so from the peak to the valley, but comparing this time of year to melt season isn't really a good investment strategy either.
BOE in 2027?
I've found a projection for this date... This is not the original source but looks pretty thorough : https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html
That's sea ice extent, not measuring the ice sheet (which is the permanent glacier on land).
Also it's well within the historical variability, so probably not a huge flag right now.. Might be worth checking over the next few weeks though. Antarctic sea ice did fall off a cliff over the last decade.. There's also an El Niño building, which is connected to warming I'm the Amundsen Sea, though I don't know how the timing works there.
Go read Ministry for the Future 🫠
Don't know why you're being down voted. It predicts a much more drastic heat dome event compared to what Europe just experienced this year. It even discusses the way the polar ice sheets melting can accelerate if enough water starts accumulating underneath it. It also emphasizes international cooperation to have a chance at curbing the worst of the damage global warming will do.
SCAR2026 is wrapping up currently. Of interested in Antarctic data, I recommend looking at the information coming out of and presented there
Thank you. I will check that out !
I swear to Gawd, this better not fuck up my unlimited pasta pass at Olive Garden that starts in 2 weeks.
It's melting.