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Unexpectedly.
You know, there are reasons I'm not employed as an econometrician any more.
Like telling people things they don't wanna hear.
I'm done with tables and numbers and statistical models now.
Memes will suffice.
EDIT:
And if any fucking idiot shows up to use the phrase 'Black Swan', incorrectly, again, I'm gonna take them on a hunting trip like Dick Cheney would.
Oh no I might black swan my pants.
I'll bite, what's the black swan thingy and why is it wrong ?
Unexpectedly?!
Exactly what dumbass didn't expect this? Oh Magats that's right
If they had long term memory they'd be very upset right now.
2 days ago:
Employers added 63,000 jobs in February as the pace of job creation quickened and beat estimates, private payroll firm ADP said on Wednesday.
Economists had forecast a gain of 48,000 following January’s downwardly revised 11,000 increase – half the original estimate.
Yeah, but the trend has been significant revision downward for months now. Anyone who's been watching was expecting this.
I expected that was all lies, so it's still expected. Unless you believed the lies. But then that would be on you. I also expect that the job losses actually are well in excess of 100,000. There's no way the administration would give anything but the flimsiest lowball number they think wouldn't get called out immediately.
They're not lies, they're estimates based off of ADP statistics.
There's 3 kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Our unemployment numbers are purposefully bullshit and have been for years too.
Do you have any sources for that? I'd love to read up on it.
The TL;DR version is that the unemployment numbers that tend to get reported are U-3, whereas many people think the U-6 numbers are a more accurate reflection of the real experience.
The U-3 unemployment rate is the most commonly reported rate in the United States, representing the number of unemployed people actively seeking a job. Meanwhile, the U-6 rate covers discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed workers in the country.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp
Thank you! 🙏
Yes, their methodology. Exclusion of discouraged workers, part-time workers wanting full-time work, and strict "actively seeking work" definitions ensure the numbers don't actually reflect the reality. But rather the more rosy fiction those in power wish to push.
So no resources that I can read?
Well, if someone points out the official methodology is designed to undercount. One might want to read said methodology. Apart from that, the Internet is your oyster, as well as cable news. Pick a source you find reputable. Fox and NBC point it out any time its advantageous to their chosen candidate. Even trump remarked on it himself in 2023 to attack biden. There are clips from Maddow from 15 years ago talking about it under Obama too. It's a chestnut old as time used to attack those in power, but never with intent to fix the systemic problem.
Economists had forecast a gain of 48,000 following January’s downwardly revised 11,000 increase – half the original estimate.
That means the prediction was 22k new juobs, had just been decreased to 11k new jobs, and then shot up to 48k...
That's not a sign that we should expect good things, that was a sign that someone may have caved from pressure after saying 11k.and went with a number that was obviously bullshit.
Apparently some people believed it tho, so I can admit when I'm wrong. I tend to overestimate people
Don't worry everyone, the rich are doing just fine.
Whew
My guess:
Tariffs
Phhht. Probably thought they'd fill those jobs with AI, since they're so hard for it. Even though they have no freakin idea what it is or can do...
Or more likely they didn't care to even fudge the numbers anymore because they plan on rigging every election to stay in power like the disgusting bloodsucking parasites like they are. They don't care if you are unhappy because what are you gonna do...
Unexpectedly.
Exactly. Diaper Don tariffing everything that moves, for one, and sending "doge" in to fire tons of government workers:
Gosh and gee willickers, you mean that will have a negative impact on things?
--Murc's Law Media and reactionary centrists everywhere
turns out the economy was underage
moved on her like a bitch
Don't worry. I'm sure if we dump even more money into AI, somehow it will all be ok.
/s
How long before the reporting of jobs numbers becomes illegal by EO and then there’s just vague statements of the economy is doing great, it’s gone up by billinty blollars just this past month! You’re not suffering, you’re efficiency maxing!
Remember GWB's reaction to someone having THREE jobs?
You work three jobs? Uniquely American, isn't it? I mean, that is fantastic that you're doing that.
I'm imagining an administration with even less empathy reacting to people's experiences under an economy imploded by PEDOnald combined with AI delusions run amok.
That’s a downwardly revised January gain of 126,000, and they had estimated a 50k gain for February. When was it we were told the Dow was over 50,000 again?
What is a downwards revised gain.
They said it was up by X number, it actually went down by Y number. They/I could’ve worded it better.