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I have hope that the decline of the empire will enable revolutions around the world. We could see "global communism" by default as global capitalism collapses, while actually existing socialist states and new revolutionary governments form a new world system.
I... don't have a lot of hope inside the imperial core. I think it's gonna be barbarism.
yeah, the europe and the US are probably going to have to go through like 7 collapses before there's any kind of societal consensus on reviewing white supremacy as a foundational idea
I think it's gonna be barbarism.
already is, always was
I doubt there will be any kind of world system. The climate crisis is real fuckin' bad.
The decline of the empire will eventually mean the decline of fossil fuel extraction and use. Fossil fuels are the blood of the empire, after all, so as the empire declines and eventually collapses I think the blood will stay in the ground. Oil will peak before we've pumped it all, simply because the political structures required to pump oil aren't going to last.
Plus, China is doing a really good job at electrification, enough to give me the tiniest sliver of hope that we won't be reduced to less than a million people struggling to survive on the tropical Antarctic archipelago.
Leaving some of the oil in the ground isn't enough. If we stopped today, fully electrified from non-polluting sources, we will still see warming of multiple degrees. We have spent over a hundred years putting tens of millions of years worth of stored carbon into the atmosphere. The extinction rate is estimated at somewhere between 1,000 and 10,000 times higher than normal - yes, three to four orders of magnitude greater than occurs naturally! Things are so much worse than this admits. People keep talking about "wild" worst case scenarios like "a million people struggling to survive on the tropical Antarctic archipelago" but that's not how it works. Far before that point, the vast majority of life will be gone likely leaving only microorganisms. We're losing all our arable topsoil (1/3 in just the last 40 years), our bees and other insects are under threat... The concern is not that our homes will be underwater, it's the collapse of food webs worldwide starving us and everything else more than one or two links removed from primary production. That will happen long, long before we have a "tropical Antarctic archipelago". For complex life to exist you need an entire biosphere, a small group of vertebrates in a limited area like that doesn't work. The point is that according to all the models, we're already locked in for 3-4 degrees of warming. Not that many years ago we were shooting for 1.6 optimistically and two at worst because that's what we could tolerate without too much death. Now three is the best we can possibly hope for and frankly we aren't heading for that, either. More likely 4+ and that is just not tolerable.
Also, as much as china is doing well at preparing to halt fossil fuel use, they still haven't. I trust that they'll meet their goals and that their goals are the best they can reasonably do, but that doesn't mean they're enough alongside the rest of the world.
That wasn't meant to be a wild worst case scenario. That's a middle case scenario as far as I'm concerned, I understand that there are many natural feedback loops that we are triggering now, the Earth is on track to become largely uninhabitable.
To humans.
But it's hard for me to believe in some kind of extinction of all complex life in the biosphere. The Earth could warm 8°C and be within the its historical range that can and has supported complex life in the past. It will be a cataclysmic transition, most megafauna will probably die, but there are many species alive today that actually were alive when the Earth was that much warmer.
In our lifetime, we will be subjected to climate catastrophes that will make the previous hurricanes, floods, fire storms, heat domes, etc look like tutorial levels. These events will cause major internal and international migrations, and the western world will crack down on its populations while letting fewer desperate migrants in. Meanwhile, the younger generations, who are inheriting this vile shitshow, will have the opportunity to reject the system that brought them to this point. After they pick fascism, a whole lot of people will die, the fascists will eventually be defeated, and two or three generations from now, our grandchildren will build communism from the ashes
You are making the honestly very optimistic assumption that Homo sapiens isn't one of the victims of the ongoing mass extinction event.
The internalizing of American capitalism propaganda among wealthy Americans who forgot that it's supposed to be just propaganda and not a how-to.
The stupidity and feebleness of modern capitalists
How much more fucked everything has visibly gotten in such a short time and how acutely aware most people are of it
I don't see it happening in my lifetime. Maybe in another place. What keeps me hopeful is seeing socialist thought appearing through the cracks of the continuously fading away neoliberal order, despite everything they've tried to extinguish it.
My goal is to leave something, for those who come after me, one day they are going to succeed. That's what gives me hope. People have told me that my emotions make me weak and that's why I am a loser, but if that's true then why have the winners failed to accomplish anything? Endless wars doesn't seem like an accomplishment to me.
Nothing. The approaching climate catastrophe is civilization ending at best, we'll be doing well if humanity as a species makes it out of the 21st century. "Just" wide scale civilizational collapse would have been extremely likely even with the ~3 degrees of warming we would have gotten if we had pulled out all the stops ~2 years ago, but we didn't and we're getting a lot more than that.
Humanity is fucked and we seem determined to take a LOT of other life with us.
The fact that capitalism is collapsing faster than we had anticipated. People are going to get sick of this shit eventually.
there are a lot of countries i don't live in
I do not think it will. If it does happen it will be unpredictable and triggered by an unrelated factor. All the successful revolutions of the 20th century (except perhaps Cuba's?) came in the wake of reality-overturning events like a world war or successful anti-colonial struggle. In the fiction book Green Mars (spoilers to follow) the Martian independence revolution is kicked off by massive collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet on Earth and subsequent 6 meter sea rise. So mostly it's about being ready to take advantage of events instead of building expressly toward revolution. And that event does not arrive on a schedule.
I do not think it will. If it does happen it will be unpredictable and triggered by an unrelated factor.
This sounds overly pessimistic to me, because unpredictable major events seem to be happening regularly, albeit not on a schedule. Look at COVID-19 for a huge example in all our lifetimes, and look at how much it was compounded in places like the US.
I agree with everything else, especially the last sentence. Building the Party and other summaries of the Russian Revolutions era show just how important and unintuitive or surprising opportunities can be. Father Gapon in the Russian Empire is a great example, the kind of person we collectively would likely (and for good reason) dismiss as a police collaborator/asset and a pro-Tsarist. But their milquetoast protest sparked the 1905 revolution, which in turn is generally considered a major factor in the 1917 revolutions.
But their milquetoast protest sparked the 1905 revolution, which in turn is generally considered a major factor in the 1917 revolutions.
Can you imagine if the No Kings photoshoot somehow inspired a revolution ten years from now?
Covid, big as it was, did not have the scale to actually trigger a revolution I don't think. I don't mean to dismiss the scale of suffering and death. But I think an event on the scale necessary to trigger a revolution would probably have to directly imperil and permanently, drastically change the lives of upwards of 25% of fighting-age people.
The tendency of the rate of profit to fall.
Honestly I am expecting communist revolutions within the next decade. Just not in the imperial core. We will go through a significant period of pure barbarism before communism is attempted.
absolutely nothing lol. even if a global communist revolution erupted yesterday and won instantly and bloodlessly, we'd still be fucked by a collapsing biosphere. that hasn't happened, so we're fucked^2^. if things don't change extremely soon, i think we're far more likely to see eco-fascism grip the West than even just tepid social democracy (which is objectively the moderate wing yadda yadda) as the climate refugee crisis kicks in to full gear. but also lenin didnt think he'd see revolution either, so im open to being surprised, it's just impossible to keep actual hope alive given the circumstances. as other people said, no reason to give up trying though when the literal fate of humanity and most species is at stake this late in the game.
That the DPRK still manages to exist. There's probably no greater proof that communism works than the DPRK surviving the Fukuyama end of history neoliberalism blitz and still being committed to improving the lives of its citizens.
Other than that, climate change.
And Cuba?
Completely slipped from my mind, yes and Cuba.
Both the DPRK and Cuba have shown the the crushing sanctions (which to me feel like a practice environment for the scarcity post climate change) can be overcome through socialist organization and international solidarity.
Depends what you mean by that. Revolution in general ? In some parts of the world ? In some countries ? I think that is absolutely possible. Global communist revolution (and I dont mean to be a doomer) I dont think that is going to happen in the next 20 years. Its totally possible im wrong mind you im literally just going with my gut feeling here.
Wait, but I said "lifetime". Are you 70 already, my guy since you said "in 20 years" 😜
I think it's not a good idea to get your hopes up or to be certain about anything involving intelligent life much further than 2050.
I don't think people will be wiped out before 2100 barring nuclear war. Just lots and lots of death and suffering
Damn, that is grim
It's not necessarily about extinction (though we're headed for, optimistically, at least +4C warming this century) but also about the incredibly uncertain future given the volatility of the current neoliberal order. I don't think anything is certain, nothing negative or positive. I guess that could be reason to have hope (better to be uncertain than certain of having no prospects) but I think you also have to acknowledge there's no reason to be optimistic either.
at least +4C warming
Yea this pretty much, everyone who's optimistic is ignoring climate change. Like always.
Yes, this. I've been called doomer for talking like this before, but I don't think even most leftists, many of whom I look up to and defer to on all things historical and political, really grasp how fundamental and existential climate change really is as a threat to humanity and to much of the biosphere. A lot of times I see otherwise cogent and thoughtful conversation about potential future trajectories, discussing how climate change is going to throw an extra wrench in the machinations of the evolving material conditions, adding more variables that could slow or speed sociopolitical development towards communism, basically make geopolitics more chaotic and unpredictable for a while, but that ultimately, communism will emerge the dominant form in the next couple centuries. And it's like... my siblings and comrades, the shit that's coming down the pipe is a lot bigger of a game changer than a wrench and some extra variables. It's a mass extinction event we've only just barely entered.
I would agree, given enough time, communism will win. But that "given enough time" piece is the load-bearing part of that phrase. What we are looking at from realistic projections right now for what is locked in to happen over the next couple centuries is literal civilizational collapse. Not just the collapse of an empire, but a total destruction of the systems we rely on to maintain, for example, intercontinental interaction, let alone global trade and complex distribution of labor. That means no global communism. IF our species survives, which is also by no means a guarantee and also teeters on the precipice of exactly how much average global heat ends up increasing, it means primitive communism in small pockets if we're lucky. Our only hope of avoiding this is large scale revolution basically immediately. It may not have to start in the imperial core (which I think we all agree is extremely unlikely), but it will have to quickly subdue the imperial core which is responsible for the vast majority of climate change, and obviously is the biggest threat to revolution anywhere. The imperial core will have to be forced into rapid degrowth. The fucking clock is ticking here, and it's not looking promising. But that's no excuse to be "doomer," (and by that, I mean "give up") it's the opposite, it's all the more reason we need to do everything we can no matter how significant the sacrifice to tear down capitalism and imperialism now.
I once had a heart-to-heart with my sister, who is a kind, intelligent and perceptive person, who set me on the path that led me to communism, but is now a comfortable suburban lib, and I tried to explain this to her- the gravity of climate change. She looked at me and just said "I have two kids. I need to believe that things will get better." There was such a pleading, desperate look in her eye that I just had to drop it. If I'm right, she's going to have to face it someday anyway, and if I'm wrong - well, then the future is better than I can imagine right now.
Same with my parents, who are at their best well-meaning libs. There's just no point in trying to get them to understand what's happening. They'll be long gone by the time everything truly breaks down. I don't really feel like I have the right to force the realization that the world they've inhabited all of their life won't really be there for their grand-kids.
I deeply sympathize with both your position and your sister's. But I also can't help but remember that the only thing that can possibly save us from the worst outcome is the full recognition of how bad the situation is, how immediate it is. That desperation in your kind-hearted sister's eye is the only thing, on a mass scale, that has a chance of mitigating the worst of the apocalyptic scenarios. I know it's easy for me to say, and I'd be lying if I claimed to be doing everything within my power to stop capitalism, but I think confronting reality must happen if we are to have any hope at all for a world worth living in for our children. Because confronting it and truly recognizing the unimaginable horror of it is the only way that people will ever get mobilized to do something about it (beyond the bullshit pressure-release-valve feel-good non-solution pablum like "green capitalism"). If she let down that wall of pretense that things will be ok for her kids, that wall she already knows at least on some level is a lie, and actually internalizes the hell that her children are going to have to face (whether she acknowledges it or not), then what's left to do but to fight against it? Fight it for their sake, because there will come a time for them when they will have no choice but to fight it. Existential-scale climate catastrophe is coming either way, but even as merciful as the sand is, the longer we keep our heads buried in it in lieu of action, the worse the catastrophe will be. And by worse, it could even be the difference between extinction or survival.
They're murdering our children. It is absolutely understandable that we would want to look away and deny this. But if staring that fact in the face is the only way to get them to stop murdering our children, then aren't we obligated to look? There's no easy answer here, but I do think there is an answer.
She looked at me and just said "I have two kids. I need to believe that things will get better."
I totally get it but at the same time this is a great example of why we're fucked. Anyone with the power to change anything flatly refuses to. Anyone decent enough to want to change anything refuses to acknowledge the necessity, because it's depressing. But refusing to admit it's happening doesn't make it not happen. And so humanity as a whole has their head wedged firmly up their ass and we march straight into hell.
I think we're deeply steeped in a moral code that makes the proposition that the kind, most loving thing to do right now is to form an armed guerilla secret army absolutely unthinkable.
and just said "I have two kids. I need to believe that things will get better." There was such a pleading, desperate look in her eye that I just had to drop it.
jesus christ having kids is a horrible thing to do to kids
The imperial core will have to be forced into rapid degrowth.
The imperial core has nukes. We are in fact screwed beyond any hope of redemption.
Well I agree with Funkystuff that there is little point in trying to look too far into the future. We dont know whats gonna happen in the grand scope of things. Im not that old but I also dont plan for much further then the next 2-3 years and I take my life a day at a time.
nothing. good things do not happen in america
Absolutely nothing. There's no reason to be hopeful. BUT, if it doesn't happen pretty soon, it's over for humanity. So there's no reason to give up on trying either.
The leviathan of capital cannot consume the human spirit.
Nothing ever happens until it does.
The problem isn't that "nothing will happen" it's that it no longer matters what happens because we have already fucked the environment so entirely.
Even a little bit of community can do a lot, sometimes it just helps you speak a few words in the right ears at the right time to make things happen. And making one or two new friends isn't that hard. If all of us on here can do that with principles and theory behind us, things can change faster than we think
I think it feels hopeless because we don't really see the widespread revolutionary potential until it all comes together (in the context of a well alienated society). Go join something, anything really and you'll meet some people waiting to become comrades