this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2025
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This sounds overly pessimistic to me, because unpredictable major events seem to be happening regularly, albeit not on a schedule. Look at COVID-19 for a huge example in all our lifetimes, and look at how much it was compounded in places like the US.
I agree with everything else, especially the last sentence. Building the Party and other summaries of the Russian Revolutions era show just how important and unintuitive or surprising opportunities can be. Father Gapon in the Russian Empire is a great example, the kind of person we collectively would likely (and for good reason) dismiss as a police collaborator/asset and a pro-Tsarist. But their milquetoast protest sparked the 1905 revolution, which in turn is generally considered a major factor in the 1917 revolutions.
Covid, big as it was, did not have the scale to actually trigger a revolution I don't think. I don't mean to dismiss the scale of suffering and death. But I think an event on the scale necessary to trigger a revolution would probably have to directly imperil and permanently, drastically change the lives of upwards of 25% of fighting-age people.
Can you imagine if the No Kings photoshoot somehow inspired a revolution ten years from now?