this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
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back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 72 points 5 months ago (1 children)

There is something really ironic about all this that has happened to Bolsonaro and these politicians and military people. They did everything possible to mock and humiliate Lula da Silva and his family, party and friends. They said that Lula was the leader of the Criminal Group and the biggest thief in history, that Lula was a criminal and corrupt. They mocked Lula's second wife, who died of cancer, and his young grandson, who also died.

Iirc, Lula ended up making friends with the guards of his cell. And he told them, a few days before his release, that he would return to power and that he would do everything possible to fuck these people over. And now, even though Lula has nothing to do with this, since it's just Supreme Court doing the right thing, it's good to see all these people getting what they deserve. Being humiliated in front of the whole world, being thrown in jail like the garbage they are and losing all respect and everything they've built, their families are being ostracized. And their supporters and voters, who wake up every day sadder and sadder for having voted for and supported these people.

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[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 72 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (7 children)

So, the yanks put on a fake Ukrainian moustache and attacked Russian territory with ATACMS missiles in clear violation of russian red lines. Then the British put on another fake Ukrainian moustache and attacked a Russian presidential command bunker with Storm Shadow missiles.

Then Russia responded by firing an ICBM against an Ukrainian arms manufacturing plant in Dnepropetrovsk (the first time in military history that an ICBM has been fired in anger?). Ukrainian air defences were unable to stop the ICBM.

I saw some westoid "expert" say that firing the ICBM was "irresponsible" since it could have scared the yanks into a nuclear exchange. That might be but I think this sends a very clear message to the west. I hope they get it.

I wonder what other messages Russia has prepared.

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 63 points 5 months ago (6 children)

The reaction of the Ukrainian media has been wild. I'll just post two screenshots from the Kyiv Post.

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[–] SoyViking@hexbear.net 71 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (3 children)

Two headlines from the website of centre-lib mainstream state media DR:

  • The ICC issues arrest warrant for "Israel's" prime minister
  • The terror organisation Hamas applauds arrest warrant

I fucking hate western journalism

Edit: In one of their news updates these spineless slimeballs writes that the arrest warrant is likely to "complicate the efforts to negotiate a ceasefire to end the 13 month long conflict".

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[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 71 points 5 months ago (4 children)

BYD has now produced 10 million electric and hybrid cars.

[–] companero@hexbear.net 66 points 5 months ago (6 children)

SORRY BUT

xigma-male

THE POLLUTION WILL STOP

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[–] StillNoLeftLeft@hexbear.net 70 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (8 children)

In Finland news:

They are now trying to blame China for the cable damage.

Hilariously at the same time there is reporting that Finnish boomers love Temu.

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[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 70 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (24 children)

Large scale Ukrainian drone attack against Russia is currently underway, over 40 drones reported to be shot down. Over 30 were over Bryansk, the oblast that Ukraine used ATACMS against last night/early morning. So far only Ukrainian UAVs. If Ukraine launches ATACMS as part of these attacks, it could get bad, but I don't think the Ukrainians are that suicidal...

Twitter Source and the same source on xcancel.

This is the same source that correctly reported on Russia's attack on Ukrainian electrical infrastructure as it it happened a few days ago.

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 69 points 5 months ago

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/130665

Another day, another $30m drone shot down in Yemen.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 69 points 5 months ago (4 children)
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[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 69 points 5 months ago (20 children)

Gallup: Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War

https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx

Interesting polling, particularly how much it's swung since 2022/3.

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[–] Lovely_sombrero@hexbear.net 68 points 5 months ago (8 children)

At least five ATACMs were used against an unknown target in Kursk Oblast

I guess Biden really wants that escalation, Ukraine and Israel are basically the only things he cares about right now.

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[–] very_poggers_gay@hexbear.net 67 points 5 months ago (8 children)

Statement from President Joe Biden on Warrants Issued by the International Criminal Court

"The ICC issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders is outrageous. Let me be clear once again: whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security."

This shit is beyond parody.

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[–] FloridaBoi@hexbear.net 67 points 5 months ago (9 children)
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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 67 points 5 months ago (6 children)

spin machine broke, your call is important to us

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[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 67 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (8 children)

The business-school scandal that just keeps getting bigger
Business schools are having the same kind of reproduction/fabrication issues that have previously come up in psychology programs. Pretty large portions of the field are looking to be outright wrong, with some speculation that the ability to turn these studies into consulting positions or books is creating significant pressure to fake results.

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[–] SexMachineStalin@hexbear.net 66 points 5 months ago (14 children)

germany-cool stated they will not uphold the ICC ruling

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 66 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (17 children)

ICC woke up wowee

russian guidance for icbm so shit they missed kiev by 1000 kms.

Weird news all around

*big brainy take, maybe iran gave them one of their thingies with shorter range

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[–] griefstricken@lemmy.ml 66 points 5 months ago (3 children)
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[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 66 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (13 children)

The Hill Op-Ed: World War III is now Trump’s to lose

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5000642-trump-world-war-iii/

Negotiations with Russia would be futile. History tells us that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s words are meaningless. Anything short of a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine and the restoration of their 1991 borders would be a victory for the Kremlin.

The defeat of Russian forces is the best outcome, and precision deep-strike weapons are a vital part of that outcome. Now is the time to invoke General Ulysses S. Grant — to close with and destroy the enemy, applying relentless pressure until they capitulate.

Bruh, these libs really want us all to die

by Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet,

Deeply unserious country.

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[–] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 66 points 5 months ago

Another W for China

World’s first underwater boron ramjet for hypersonic weapons achieves 90% efficiency
The engine was stable as the flame and the pressure in the afterburner remained unchanged.

https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-underwater-boron-ramjet-engine

[–] Evilphd666@hexbear.net 66 points 5 months ago (5 children)
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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 65 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (15 children)
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[–] anaesidemus@hexbear.net 64 points 5 months ago (6 children)

Very cool photo from the latest eruption in Iceland

Lava flowing over the Blue Lagoon parking lot | RÚV – Ragnar Visage

fuck parking lots amirite?

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[–] Parzivus@hexbear.net 64 points 5 months ago
[–] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 64 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (11 children)

transphobia mention

As much as I like Norm Finklestein on Palestine, he is such a boomer when it comes to wokeism or trans people.

What redneck hillbilly cares about trans people having access to puberty blockers? Dems didn't campaign on that. If you ask hillbillies if they support puberty blockers, they'll 100% say "what's that?"

And whenever Norm talks about Palestine he will meticulously talk about his sources, UN, HRW etc. But he just says that puberty blockers are bad for you is backed by "overwhelming evidence" with no sources. Biology isn't his field.

And I don't agree that Trump can't be a fascist strongman dictator because Supreme Court will prevent that and because US has no "left".

It is true, US has no significant left wing opposition, however, fascism wasn't just about fighting the leftists, it also meant othering of minorities and directing the public anger towards them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBz68F1vTlw

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[–] totalyNOTaPIRATE@hexbear.net 64 points 5 months ago (2 children)

German Org named after a literal NSDAP (nazi party) member dont want to give a award to a anti israeli guy.

German architecture award rescinded over British artist’s Israel boycott vow

Schelling Architecture Foundation refuses to give James Bridle his €10k prize after he signed open letter Philip Oltermann European culture editor Mon 18 Nov 2024 14.27 GMT

A German architecture foundation has rescinded one of its €10,000 (£8,360) awards from a British artist over an open letter he signed promising a boycott of Israeli cultural institutions, citing the German parliament’s controversial antisemitism resolution as a factor behind the decision.

The Athens-based artist and author James Bridle was announced in June as the recipient of the Schelling Architecture Foundation’s theory prize, awarded every two years, for his “outstanding contributions to architectural theory”.

But on Sunday, days before this Wednesday’s awards ceremony in the south-western city of Karlsruhe, Bridle was informed in an email that the foundation’s committee had decided unanimously not to award him the prize because he was among the several thousand authors who signed an open letter calling for a boycott of Israeli cultural institutions.

Signatories of the pledge, published on LitHub at the end of October, stated that “we will not work with Israeli cultural institutions that are complicit or have remained silent observers of the overwhelming oppression of Palestinians”.

In a press release, the foundation said Bridle’s signature on the letter was “in direct contradiction” to responsibilities from the “awareness of Germany’s national history”.

The foundation’s prizes, which have been awarded since 1992, are named after the late German architect Erich Schilling. On its website, the foundation says Schilling was a member of the NSDAP, the German Nazi party, between 1937 and 1945, and worked on the construction of the offices of the publishing house of the party newspaper Der Führer.

“We respect the right to express political views, especially since the foundation does not accuse James Bridle of antisemitism,” its statement said. “But the foundation can neither support nor be associated with a call for cultural isolation of Israel.”

In its email to Bridle, which has been seen by the Guardian, the foundation further linked its decision to a cross-party resolution passed by the German parliament earlier this month.

“The German Bundestag has just passed a resolution on the protection of Jewish life, which points the way forward for state institutions and is relevant to society as a whole,” the foundation said in its email.

The resolution, entitled Never Again is Now: Protecting, Preserving and Strengthening Jewish Life in Germany, was first proposed after the Hamas terror attack on 7 October 2023. International NGOs including Amnesty International and Israeli Jewish groups campaigning for a two-state solution have criticised its text for eliding antisemitism and criticism of Israel’s human rights record, predicting it would have a chilling effect on freedom of expression.

The resolution says “the Bundestag reaffirms its decision to ensure that no organisations or projects that spread antisemitism, question Israel’s right to exist, call for a boycott of Israel or actively support the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement receive financial support”.

Bridle told the Guardian: “Although they are clearly not prepared to state it outright, the foundation’s decision is an accusation of antisemitism, which is abhorrent. It is particularly so given the organisation’s own history.”

Bridle said there was an irony in that the Schilling jury cited as particularly deserving of recognition his 2022 bookd Ways of Being, which contained a discussion of Israel’s “apartheid wall” in the occupied West Bank, and “of the relationship between genocide and ecocide”.

A spokesperson for the foundation said the other nominees for the prize had been informed of their decision, “and we have to be prepared for there to be further reactions”.

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[–] Wertheimer@hexbear.net 64 points 5 months ago (14 children)

NYT has an interview with María Corina Machado. The main photo is her staring wistfully through a window:

Venezuela’s ‘Iron Lady’ Pleads With Trump to Save Her Country’s Democracy

Now, with President Nicolás Maduro accused of stealing the election and his government threatening her capture, María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s wildly popular opposition leader, has gone into hiding — alone.

In a series of rare, in-depth virtual interviews since she mobilized millions to vote against Mr. Maduro in July, Ms. Machado said she was holed up in a secret location somewhere inside her country. Because anyone who helps her could be detained — or might lead government agents to her — she said she has not had a visitor in months.

Nicknamed the country’s “Iron Lady” for her conservative politics and steely resolve, Ms. Machado is, she admitted, “longing for a hug.”

Her mother has urged her to meditate. She has not.

The rest of the article is her begging Trump and the "international community" to coup her country, concluding with “But I am willing to do what has to be done,” she said, “for as long as it takes to assert the truth and popular sovereignty," and then somehow you can hear "SPEAK ABOUT DESTRUCTION" fade in.

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 64 points 5 months ago (3 children)

Well, I was kinda right about Russia's red line. That IRBM was definitely a response, though it was a very underwhelming one.

I did not expect the ICC to actually issue the arrest warrants, though. Good on them. Netanyahu is now effectively banned from Europe!

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[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 64 points 5 months ago

Open hexbear

see map

19 Feb 2022

[–] Halloweenbean@hexbear.net 64 points 5 months ago

More news no one is paying attention to:

  1. Mali sacked it's civilian prime minister for turning on the junta, need more info on this

  2. Dead people are voting in US elections, it's just in Puerto Rico and probably for the statehood candidates so nobody cares https://periodismoinvestigativo.com/2024/11/activos-fallecidos-registro-elecciones-cee/

  3. The Philippines got hit by alot of megatyphoons, someone should check on the smaller islands.

  4. Dish TV and direct TV didn't merge because of a debt argument, expect hbo to spin off its cable channels which will then merge with whatever is left.

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 63 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (4 children)

Video of Putin's full 7:30 speech, with English translation from RT News, hosted on Reddit

Reddit source is now deleted.

Twitter source

Xcancel source

Most interesting part is Putin saying that Russia, in essence, reserves the right to hit military targets of the countries whose long range weapons are used to strike Russia.

I would upload a mirror link on another website, but my Reddit client does not allow me to download Reddit videos with sound for some reason. If anyone else can, feel free to post it.

~~Damnit video got deleted, time to try find it again.~~

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[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 63 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (34 children)

Ukraine just hit a military installation in Bryansk with ATACMS missiles in the early hours of this morning, five intercepted but one got through according to the Russian MOD. Putin has also signed Russia's updated nuclear doctrine into law, allowing for a nuclear response to a large scale non nuclear attack by a non nuclear state, aided by a nuclear state.

Russian MoD statement:

Translation of Russian MoD statement

  • Tonight at 3.25 a.m. the enemy struck a facility on the territory of the Bryansk region with six ballistic missiles.

  • According to confirmed information, American-made ATACMS operational-tactical ballistic missiles were used.

  • As a result of an anti-missile battle by S-400 SAMs and Pantsir SAMs, five missiles were shot down and one was damaged.

  • Its fragments fell on the technical territory of a military facility in the Bryansk region, causing a fire, which was promptly extinguished.

  • There were no casualties or damage.

Russian Ministry of Defence

The statement appears in contradiction with the latest video from the area, showing a clear explosion. It seems as if the damaged missile got through for a direct hit. Or there were some secondary explosions from debris. Either way, there is clear damage done should the footage be legitimate.

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 63 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (4 children)

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/17/biden-ukraine-russia-missiles-north-korea-response

  1. Only ATACMS have been allowed for use.

  2. They are only allowed for use in the Kursk region.

If this is the case, there won't be an escalation. This is entirely about preventing Russia from taking back the region before negotiations. The primary focus of Ukraine right now is to hold out until then.

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 63 points 5 months ago (13 children)

Here's an example of how Russia could retaliate, without technically escalating:

I don't think they will do exactly that, but it shows how serious Biden's brinkmanship is.

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[–] geikei@hexbear.net 63 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (18 children)

There was some news a couple of days ago of China issuing 2 billion in USD denominated sovereign bonds that surprisingly was treated negatively or as some capitulation to the USD. I feel like this is quite different

I see this as creating a small triangular financing mechanism to help offload from the USD collectively with the central fulcrum being a facilitation of $ for ¥ swaps. The end result is global south nations pay down USD denominated liabilities & export resources to China earning RMB.

Simply put Gulf (and others) countries have too many dollars, China sells them these bonds, China uses these dollars to fund poor countries (investments, imports whatever), Poor countries use dollars to pay debt, Poor countries and gulf countries sell their natural resources to China in yuan then China sells its technology to these countries in yuan. Saudi flushes out $, China gains real resources, poor countries less poor, net negative for the volume of $ being outside of US borders. Meanwhile Chinese sovereign bond buyers are also using these bonds as collateral for Chinese tech & infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia and their respective home countries. For China it also represents a very slow conversion of excess USD and their own trade surpluses into physical commodities while creating demand for their own currency. These commodities will continue to rise in USD prices while falling in RMB prices. They will have to repay these bonds upon maturity eventualy but it will be with cheaper dollars as commodities reprice higher in tighter supply-constrained markets. So even in the long term there is another net loss of USD.

Another angle is that many coutries are facing double digit borrowing costs in USDs to rollover or service USD debts. China can stabilise these at rates almost identical to US Treasury rates , these bonds were issued at just 1 base point over UST! after all. Another net negative effect on dollar circulation and accumulation. It basicaly tries to flip the Dollar Milkshake Theory to its head. China could have used its UST for this without all this roundabout thing, sure. But China is maintaining/reducing its UST reserves slowly because it doesnt want to blow up the global financial enviroment and insert a ton of volatility . But the needs of many countries for USD liquidity are way higher than China's rate of liquidation . This bridges that gap and allows China to do smth

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[–] plinky@hexbear.net 62 points 5 months ago

What level of analogies are you on?

Idk, nuremberg or someshit.

you are but a child, watch this:

[–] plinky@hexbear.net 62 points 5 months ago (10 children)
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[–] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 62 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (9 children)

Putin statement on the strike just dropped, can’t verify rn, but this is a more Russian-adjacent tgram than I usually follow

spoiler

🇷🇺Summary of Putin speach 🇷🇺

⚪️Western long-range weapons were used on Russian territory, Putin said.

⚪️The enemy's targets were not achieved after the strikes.

⚪️Russian military used the latest Russian medium-range system "Oreshnik" on November 21

⚪️The Russian strike targeted a military-industrial facility in Dnepropetrovsk, the target was successfully hit

⚪️Russia strikes Yuzhmash with non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile

⚪️Existing missile defense systems, including American elements in Europe, will not be able to intercept missiles like Oreshnik

⚪️The latest Russian missiles attack targets at a speed of 2-3 km per second, existing enemy missile defense systems do not intercept them

⚪️He said that civilians would be notified in advance of the use of Oreshnik.

⚪️ We have entered a Global war.

⚪️Use Of Western Long-Range Weapons Is Impossible Without 'Direct Involvement' Of Military Operators From The Manufacturing Countries

⚪️President Putin Issues Warning To The West: 'We Will Act Decisively In Cases Of Escalation'

⚪️Russian President Putin Confirms 'Operational Test' Of Novel Intermediate-Range Missile With a Non-Nuclear Payload

⚪️Putin: US Made A Mistake By Destroying Missile Treaty In 2019

✨@WarCabinet

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[–] companero@hexbear.net 62 points 5 months ago (32 children)

I really don't believe that Russia's red line about long range missiles is a bluff. Putin specifically said that such attacks would mean direct conflict with NATO. Russia's nuclear doctrine was changed to authorize the use of nuclear weapons in response.

Russia's actual response (probably not nukes) remains a mystery, but I bet that they have something planned, and will do it if necessary. Of course, this will only happen if Ukraine actually launches the missiles.

The vibes I'm getting make me think that Ukraine may attempt massive combined missile/drone strikes on Russia, including Western weapons. I sure hope they don't try that, because Russia could genuinely consider that an existential threat worthy of using nukes over.

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[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 62 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (10 children)

The reasoning behind this attack seems to be to force Russia's hand, lest Putin look weak, and then in turn force Trump's hand, lest he look weak should he come in and attempt to deescalate after Russia and NATO start actually trading blows without all the subterfuge. It seems like the Biden/Starmer/Macron triumvirate are hoping for a "heads we win, tails you lose" style scenario. A "November Surprise" if you will. I'm not sure if it will play out that way, since a significant portion of Trump's base don't want war with Russia and he can probably come in and blame this all on Biden and the Democrats being warmongers.

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