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submitted 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 61 points 11 hours ago

Support for deportation of illegal immigrants can vary from 62% to 33% depending on how the question is asked

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[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 53 points 11 hours ago

BYD has now produced 10 million electric and hybrid cars.

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 48 points 13 hours ago
[-] thethirdgracchi@hexbear.net 49 points 12 hours ago

Fascist Italian lady who's nice to me: sleepi

Fascist Argentine man who's very rude and smells weird and fucks his sister and has cloned dogs or whatever: shrek-pixel-despair

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 25 points 12 hours ago

Oom Cyril Ramaphosa lmao. Looks like a movie poster for a knockoff action film.

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 32 points 12 hours ago

Putin and Scholz Reconnect: A Dialogue on Ukraine and Other Matters - Telesur English

Article

In the conversation, Putin also addressed the current crisis in Ukraine, noting that it is a consequence of NATO’s aggressive policy, which seeks to establish an anti-Russian presence on Ukrainian territory while neglecting Russia’s security interests and violating the rights of Russian speakers in the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this Friday, marking their first dialogue in two years. During this call, the two leaders exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine.

Putin reiterated that Russia is ready to resume negotiations that had been suspended by the Kyiv government, based on proposals previously submitted in June by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

The Kremlin issued a statement emphasizing that Russia has never closed itself off to the possibility of dialogue and that the conditions for negotiations are well known.

hese conditions include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as from the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Additionally, the need for Ukraine to adopt a neutral status was mentioned, along with the denazification and demilitarization of the country, together with the lifting of sanctions imposed by the West.

In the conversation, Putin also addressed the current crisis in Ukraine, noting that it is a consequence of NATO’s aggressive policy, which seeks to establish an anti-Russian presence on Ukrainian territory while neglecting Russia’s security interests and violating the rights of Russian speakers in the region.

Bilateral relations were also discussed, with Vladimir Putin assessing the unprecedented weakening “in all directions as a result of the unfriendly behavior of the German authorities.”

“It was stressed that Russia has always strictly complied with its contractual obligations in the energy sector and is willing to cooperate mutually beneficially if there is interest on the German side,” said the Chancellery.

[-] Commiejones@hexbear.net 27 points 11 hours ago

"Reconnect"? more like "talk past each other."

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 20 points 9 hours ago

Westerners are incapable of acknowledging what Putin is saying and responding to it. It’s just that “don’t look like anything to me” stare from Westworld.

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[-] griefstricken@lemmy.ml 66 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)
[-] SaniFlush@hexbear.net 13 points 9 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago)

What's the matter colonizers, don't feel safe?

[-] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 60 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

yeah, there's videos around on various accounts.

looks to me like a successful interception of a Hezbollah missile via new and advanced Iron Shopping Center anti-missile technology

[-] griefstricken@lemmy.ml 31 points 14 hours ago

If anyone has more details that would be swell, the video doesn't really add much more than confirmation it happened.

[-] whatdoiputhere12@hexbear.net 30 points 14 hours ago

that's so wholesome agony-wholesome

[-] companero@hexbear.net 48 points 14 hours ago

I really don't believe that Russia's red line about long range missiles is a bluff. Putin specifically said that such attacks would mean direct conflict with NATO. Russia's nuclear doctrine was changed to authorize the use of nuclear weapons in response.

Russia's actual response (probably not nukes) remains a mystery, but I bet that they have something planned, and will do it if necessary. Of course, this will only happen if Ukraine actually launches the missiles.

The vibes I'm getting make me think that Ukraine may attempt massive combined missile/drone strikes on Russia, including Western weapons. I sure hope they don't try that, because Russia could genuinely consider that an existential threat worthy of using nukes over.

[-] WeedReference420@hexbear.net 24 points 11 hours ago

Seeing dipshits online cheering Biden on and talking about how epic he is to do "one last thing for Ukraine" got me feeling like I have the flu ngl

[-] NPa@hexbear.net 10 points 8 hours ago
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[-] sewer_rat_420@hexbear.net 10 points 9 hours ago

I dont know what more they would do other then what they have been doing? They will still make territorial gains regardless of ATACMS missiles hittinG Kursk.

[-] HarryLime@hexbear.net 30 points 12 hours ago

It isn't a bluff, but they're probably going to exercise restraint until they know what Trump will do once he gets in. They'll start escalating if Trump continues the strikes, likely at American targets in the middle east.

[-] vegeta1@hexbear.net 34 points 12 hours ago

You know things are in the shitter if the hope is for the guy that escalated shit with north korea and floats a war in mexico is the one to cool it down.

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 27 points 11 hours ago

Trump actually cooled things down with DPRK and did a bunch of diplomatic breakthroughs because he doesn’t have a deep hatred for DPRK like seemingly every other person in US government.

[-] Lando@hexbear.net 11 points 8 hours ago

Yeah I agree, I don't think Trump has a huge problem with NK. It's like one of his few not terrible things actually.

[-] hotcouchguy@hexbear.net 6 points 7 hours ago

Trump is fixated on "taking the oil" and other resources, and DPRK doesn't have anything he wants to take.

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[-] CascadeOfLight@hexbear.net 19 points 10 hours ago

My personal theory is that Trump fully buys all the bullshit being fed to him by his natsec advisors about Putin and Kim being strongman dictators ruling over their helpless brainwashed masses, but instead of having the proper liberal reaction of righteous indignation he's like "Wow, cool!"

Or perhaps the spirit of Juche just lives within him

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 19 points 9 hours ago

Or he just has a more realpolitik “get your hands dirty” view of power and doesn’t see much of a difference between himself and other leaders

[-] CascadeOfLight@hexbear.net 13 points 9 hours ago

He's Donny Deals! Just wheeling and dealing all day long! a-little-trolling

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[-] Jabril@hexbear.net 20 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 11 hours ago)

Good thing they are pretty much out of long range weapons and the capability to launch them

[-] Commiejones@hexbear.net 21 points 12 hours ago

lathe-of-heaven Russia destroys the us embassy in ukraine

[-] Adkml@hexbear.net 32 points 13 hours ago

I honestly think ukraines strayegynfor a while has been to be able to use western weapons for escalators strikes so that other countries get dragged in and they don't have to fight the war on their own.

Which makes sense, I'm getting pretty tired of Americans saying that every Russian citizen deserves to be burned alive and then have that death celebrated by the international audience because Russia is waging a war, but it's ridiculous to suggest that America is invl9ved just because they're supplying intelligence, communication, arms, personally, logistics and are now putting together strike plans to be used against Russia.

Ukraine gonna paint a big American flag on the side of it and strike all the most inflammatory targets they can come up with in hopes that Russia retaliated against us.

[-] Dolores@hexbear.net 26 points 13 hours ago

the just-Kursk allowance seems like something Russia could safely ignore, it's pretty laughable that Ukraine still seems to think occupying a couple villages will net them something substantial in the negotiations, if these missiles were capable of stymieing Russia's liberating of the Kursk territory in the first place--which judging by ATACMS not slowing the Donbass front where they are already allowed to use them... seems doubtful

[-] companero@hexbear.net 25 points 13 hours ago

In deterrence theory, your policy has to be strictly applied lest your frog be boiled. Putin didn't say "no long range strikes, except in Kursk". He said "no long range strikes".

[-] Dolores@hexbear.net 21 points 12 hours ago

at this particular time when Russia is clearly winning, meeting the escalation in a fair way could open up the way for more effectual escalation on NATO's part, making it more difficult to achieve Russia's goals. 'Oh drat the wunderwaffen didn't make Putin surrender' is a less compelling battlecry to deploy NATO troops than 'they shot down our oh-so-innocent and uninvolved AWACS unit'.

[-] Commiejones@hexbear.net 17 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

There is a nuclear reactor and a nuclear weapons research and storage facility in Kursk. Where do you think Ukraine wants to use its missiles?

[-] Dolores@hexbear.net 13 points 12 hours ago

Where do you think Ukraine wants to use its missiles

i mean if the idea is to get Kiev flattened then shooting at a nuclear weapon facility would be a good idea. i'm not sure they're quite that suicidal

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 22 points 11 hours ago

They bombed the ZNPP for 2 years straight. They have depopulated their nation and pushed every man into a meat grinder. They are entirely that suicidal.

[-] Commiejones@hexbear.net 23 points 11 hours ago

i'm not sure they're quite that suicidal

I feel like maybe you haven been paying attention. They aren't "suicidal" in that they don't consciously and actively wish to be dead but their track record seems to show that every time they make a decision they chose the thing that will hasten their own demise.

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[-] blight@hexbear.net 38 points 14 hours ago

fuck you [adds another 3 months to the war]

[-] SoyViking@hexbear.net 35 points 14 hours ago

The exact scope of the American Biden regime's decision to attack Russia with ATACMS missiles is not known in detail. In an interview with state media DR foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has expressed disappointment in what he believes to be a limited scope of the planned attacks:

If it were true that the U.S. had lifted geographic restrictions, that would be good. But I have a sense that this is relatively limited and likely focused on Kursk. And that’s, of course, better than nothing,

(DR found it fitting to embellish Rasmussen's statement by inserting a note about "Pentagon" claiming that there are 10,000 democratic Korean troops in the Kursk oblast. I have omitted it from the quote)

Even the Danish regime, who has been among the most bellicose, is now beginning to slowly realise that the west will not be able to impose it's maximalist demands on Russia. Rasmussen is now talking about how the purpose of the American ATACMS attacks is not to achieve victory but to make sure that Ukraine has the "strongest possible position for when and if the dynamics of this war change." He goes on to say that "It’s a sober prediction that this could happen sometime in the new year,"

Rasmussen continues:

President Zelensky has also stated that the war will likely shift to a diplomatic phase at some point. And it’s crucial that Ukraine has the strongest possible advantage in that scenario

...

One way to make a difference is to lift geographic restrictions (on the use of Western weapons). Unfortunately, I don’t currently see this happening one-to-one. But something is better than nothing,"

However, the Danish regime has yet to move to a more realistic position on the war. Rasmussen is mostly dismissive of German leader Olaf Scholz' attempts to resume dialogue with Russia by making a phone call to Putin. Rasmussen says:

If the purpose was to persuade Putin to end the war, it clearly didn’t succeed. Because immediately afterward, we saw one of the most massive Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in a very long time

This, of course, is a deeply unserious statement that should be seen as a symptom of the butthurt many western maximalists must be experiencing these days.

Despite his bruised ego, Rasmussen is enough of an opportunist to realise that the reality of the war is shifting both on the ground and in the imperial court of Washington where the incoming Trump regime might be less keen to continue the war. He says that European countries needs to understand "what's what" and says that "We must avoid a situation where we simply have no role to play. If the call aimed to ensure that, I’m more understanding".

He adds:

There’s nothing from that conversation suggesting President Putin is remotely ready to negotiate."

[-] edge@hexbear.net 13 points 10 hours ago* (last edited 10 hours ago)

He adds:

There’s nothing from that conversation suggesting President Putin is remotely ready to negotiate."

Only if by “negotiate” he means surrender. Which he likely does.

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[-] Halloweenbean@hexbear.net 16 points 12 hours ago

They always express disappointment so they can demand more ridiculous shit. I remember when they first started demanding tanks.

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this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
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