Image via Katapult (Instagram, German)
Data source & longer analysis: https://europeelects.eu/2024/11/04/u-s-election-europeans-would-vote-for-harris-if-they-could/
How Europe did actually vote
Sauce Considering that Harris would more or less match renew Europe + Green + S&D, and that Trump would match the huge blue block at the right, I don't think we're doing much better than our American friends
I am pretty sure USA Democrates are closer to EU moderate right, they are not the left as we consider it in EU (except for Bernie Sanders maybe). So you should probably include those too.
To be honest most of even Bernie's proposals are things that Europeans fought for decades ago. He's basically a social democrat.
Yes, social democrat is where left starts in EU, I think.
Yeah, I'm Italian and I guarantee that we would not (unfortunately) vote for Harris. We have just elected our farthest-to-the-right government ever, and far right politicians have been popular here for a few decades, now.
I really wish this graph was true, though. I need at least one reason to be proud of my country.
I was going to sarcastically ask "ever ever?" but suspect your statement might just be literally true...
To be fair, I was talking specifically about the Republican period (1946 and later). As much as I despise our current government, Meloni is not Mussolini yet. We're slowly getting there, though, and I've never seen so many fascism sympathizers in the open (including in the government).
Our scholastic system has failed us.
It's not just you, fascism sympathizers are on the rise everywhere 😕 How quickly the world forgets its own history.
Also what would happen if we used the same election system where the winner is not decided by the total votes but how many districts they have the majority in and the right was manipulating the district borders in their favour
ow many districts they have the majority in and the right was manipulating the district borders in their favour
To be fair, it's already an issue in some European countries, may-be not as much as the US, but I've seen weird electoral district in France too
It's only an issue in first-past-the-post elections though, of which continental Europe has far fewer. It's not an issue in relative elections, such as for most parliaments in continental Europe.
EPP is centrist, not far right, and they work together with greens + socialists + liberals. The national parties that are members of the EPP, that I know, are the old christian democrat parties and in terms of the USA Overton window, they would be to the left of USA democratic party. The far right only has about a quarter of MEPs.
"Combined, the three political groups on the right have 187 MEPs, just over a quarter of the total, but they are viewed as unlikely to form a coherent and united bloc. Following the election, leaders of the EPP, S&D and Renew Europe groups stressed their commitment to working together as a pro-EU “democratic alliance”. The S&D and Renew Europe, together with the Greens/EFA, also stressed that they rejected cooperation with groups on the right, including the ECR. "
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10068/
I tend to agree with you but I think most EPP voters don't. They consider themselves moderate and would probably prefer Harris over Trump.
Even though they claim to be moderate, pragmatic, anchored in real-life, what they vote and what they say, looks like pretty Trumpian, at least in the French political spectrum. Guess who voted against the gay-marriage ? Guess who voted against banning conversion therapies ? Guess who proposed to ban gender affirming care for minor ? Guess who wants stricter immigrations rules (without hiring civil servant and judge to apply the existing laws) Guess who goes into anti-woke rant (Actually, we can even extend to some centrists from renew, especially when crossing the belgian border , Guess who pass law to increase the weight of private insurance over public healthcare ?
Considering the number of high ranking older Republicans, who support Harris, that really does not mean that much. Seriously Dick Cheney supports Harris these days.
True. I suspect there are a bunch of effects that come into play because the question is basically, "What would go do if you could vote for another country?"
E.g., I am not sure whether respondents voted for the candidate they would want to live under (which I think would be the more straightforward option) vs. which candidate they would want to see in another country (for the benefit of their home country).
There's also a strong element of how deep people are in the national/US propaganda cycle vs. hearing a few news items from a distance.
Also ... The image above is of course presupposing a per-country first-past-the-post voting system. Denmark only has 4% Trump voters (which I don't think matches with their national voting behavior). However, e.g. Germany polled at 21% Trump voters which happens to line up almost perfectly with the percentage of far-right Afd voters.
I am quite sure that a lot of German CDU/CSU and FDP voters would also vote Trump over Harris, if these were the two only choices for the next federal election in Germany.
What we mostly hear about them is Trump being the crazy criminal and Harris being the rational decent person. It is very detached from the policies and also we saw how the right and far right media in Germany wrecked havoc on the Green party in the 2021 pre-election time. So the way the media and people talk about them would be very different. Also we have Merz having a stable high polling at 30-35% with going the Trump route. Just that instead of eating peoples pets, immigrants are stealing dentist appointments. The CSU also copied a lot of the anti LGBT propaganda from the US Republicans, the Greens are the source of all economic problems...
We are a lot closer to electing Trump-like people than this study suggests.
The problem with Trump is that he is loud and slightly crazy. That just does not work well with German post WW2 culture. If somebody calmer would run, that would be a different story though.
happens to
lol
I mean, yeah — obviously the same people that get their news almost exclusively from "alternative" media.
I've heard the epp and s&d work together.
The parties that I know in the EPP (Belgian and dutch) are definitely to the left of the USA democrats, which isn't very hard. On the national level, member parties of EPP will work and have worked together with their s&d counterparts in many countries. And in the eu parliament, s&d, renew and EPP have indeed worked together for many years.
So yeah, they definitely would not be in Trump's camp. I don't get how one can claim that EPP is far right.
I think the map would look very different if the question was about local politicians who behave exactly like Trump or Harris but are not them.
That’s a great point and absolutely true IMO.
Surprised and disappointed by Slovakia, Slovenia, Moldova and Bulgaria.
Not surprised but disappointed by Serbia, Hungary, and Russia.
Moldova had elections a few days ago.
Yes to the EU process vs Russia influence barely won with 50.46% and the current pro-EU president was reelected with 54.35% against a candidate supported by the "pro-Russian Socialist Party".
So apparently, democracy is not a consensual topic in this country, which aligns well with Trump.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldovas-eu-referendum-goes-wire-after-sandu-decries-vote-meddling-2024-10-21/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-holds-presidential-runoff-election-amid-claims-russian-meddling-2024-11-03/
I mean I followed those. But both of them had lots of russian interference so I take the result with grain of salt.
Luckily pro-EU won in both.
Slovakia has a far right president too. So not too much of a surprise. Melania Trump is Slovenian, so that might be it. Bulgarian politics is just nuts.
While Melania is from Slovenia, I don't think she has a huge fan base over here.
As Slovene I agree. #wtf
Honestly surprised that 16% of Irish voters would go trump but 84% Harris is pretty solid.
Please fucking invade us, we need help
The US is beyond help - The disease is terminal
Did someone forget to invite Luxembourg again?
Deserved (I grew up there)
Would Russians vote for Trump as president of Russia, though?
The US election process is so democratic that even Russia and China get to vote
We don't get to vote over here, unfortunately. There's this whole spectacle of ballot casting, but there is no vote counting. Even if there was, there's nobody left to watch over them as every opposition party member is either in jail or exiled.
But even if there were fair elections, I believe most of the support from Russians in a 2016 election was more of a "haha, watch the US destroy itself by electing an imbecile", rather than actually believing what Trump's had to say. So... probably not.
Not if Putin has any say in it.
I’ve told my Bulgarian wife that Bulgaria is the Alabama of Europe. She’s admitted she can’t even be mad about it.
Fucking Hungary
Just saw a dude wearing maga crap, I'm in the netherlands..
I think this is called "Aposematism":
Aposematism is the advertising by an animal, whether terrestrial or marine, to potential predators that it is not worth attacking or eating.[1] This unprofitability may consist of any defenses which make the prey difficult to kill and eat, such as toxicity, venom, foul taste or smell, sharp spines, or aggressive nature. These advertising signals may take the form of conspicuous coloration, sounds, odours,[2] or other perceivable characteristics. Aposematic signals are beneficial for both predator and prey, since both avoid potential harm.
really? Moldova?
Considering the Transnistrian issue, I would've thought Moldova would vote blue.
As a Slovenian this is suprising to me. Everyone I know thinks Trump is an idiot. Maybe they think USA influence on the world will be negative in either case.
I saw the poll few days ago saying it's 43:41 for Trump. Probably right wing SDS & co. I'm embarrassed.
I sorta feel ukraine would go kamala over being neutral.
The map is based on multiple, independent, country-specific surveys. There probably was no (good) data on Ukraine for reasons.
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