Europe

The EU is demanding that any future British government pays significant financial compensation if they quit a post-Brexit “reset” deal as part of negotiations with Sir Keir Starmer.

Brussels has included a termination clause that would require London to pay a high level of restitution if they chose to exit a proposed EU-UK “veterinary agreement” to remove Brexit red tape for British food and drink exporters, according to a draft text seen by the FT.

EU diplomats have dubbed the stipulation a “Farage clause” that they said was designed to insure the bloc against the risk of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage becoming prime minister and making good on his threat to reverse Starmer’s attempted move closer to Brussels.

The clause states that if either side pulls out, it must pay compensation that would include the costs of setting up “the infrastructure and equipment, initial recruitment and training, in order to set up the necessary border controls”.

One EU diplomat said that it was a “safety provision to provide stability and a deterrent for Farage and Co”, adding that Brussels was looking to sign a deal that would endure past the current UK parliamentary term, which ends in 2029.

“The EU wants an agreement long-term and not only until 2029, should a change happen at the next election,” they said.

Starmer has made a veterinary, or sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS), agreement a crucial element of his plans to improve trading arrangements with Brussels, alongside a deal to re-link the EU and UK carbon pricing schemes.

Trade and industry groups have strongly advocated for such a deal that would remove almost all Brexit red tape faced by exporters of agrifood products. A 2024 study estimated a deal could boost UK food and drink exports by 22 per cent.

With Reform UK significantly ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives in the polls, EU diplomats said Brussels was increasingly alive to the risk of its planned deals with Starmer unravelling.

The EU text said that the UK would pay a fee to join the veterinary agreement, based on a proportional share of the relevant agencies that administer the bloc’s border checks on plant and animal imports, plus an extra 4 per cent of that amount as an additional “participation fee”.

The draft text, which is subject to negotiation with the British government, also requires the UK to “dynamically align [with] and simultaneously apply” any rules governing animal and plant products that are introduced by EU lawmakers in Brussels.

Nick Thomas-Symonds, Starmer’s European relations minister, has said that legislation to enable dynamic alignment should be in place by the end of this year, with the deal operational by early to mid 2027.

However, both Reform UK and the Conservatives have promised to revoke such a deal, arguing that it diluted British legal independence and betrayed a vital part of honouring the result of the 2016 vote to leave the EU.

Reform UK told the FT that the party would reverse the SPS deal that Starmer was negotiating with the EU if they won power.

Speaking in London on Friday, Farage accused Starmer of “doing his best to give away our parliamentary sovereignty, to give away our rights as voters”.

Kemi Badenoch, Conservative leader, has promised to reverse Starmer’s “terrible deal”, saying she could not accept any agreement with Brussels that involved Britain being subject to rulings by the European Court of Justice.

The European Commission said it “remains fully committed to the implementation of the actions agreed with the United Kingdom at the Summit in May 2025.”

UK government officials said it was standard for agreements to have contingencies for termination and they would apply equally to both parties.

A senior Labour official said it was ironic that both Reform and the Conservatives, which styled themselves as parties of free markets, were promising to restore trade barriers if they won the next election.

“Nigel Farage is going to go into the next election saying he wants to bring back red tape, mountains of paperwork, and a greater bureaucratic burden,” they added

On 10 November 2023, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó travelled to Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. His visit came 31 years after the last time a Hungarian foreign affairs delegation had visited the country. Szijjártó justified the visit with “the changed international context”. He met with president Nicolás Maduro, Minister of Oil Pedro Rafael Tellechea and Foreign Minister Yván Gil. Gil and Szijjártó even signed an agreement between the two countries.

Based on the communiqué about the visit and Szijjártó’s posts from the time, the Foreign Minister had high hopes concerning Venezuela. For example, he posted a photo of himself and Maduro, commenting that they agreed that “amidst the current changes in global politics, the main responsibility of elected officials is to defend their country’s sovereignty and to resist external attempts at interference. According to another one of his posts, “Venezuela is opening up to the world, and the Western world is also opening to Venezuela. Whoever is here first will reap the benefits”.

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The ... Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published at the time ... wrote about Venezuela’s vast oil reserves and its gas extraction, which is why the representatives of MOL and MVM (Hungary’s two energy giants) also accompanied Szijjártó. According to the statement, they started negotiations about the possibility of importing natural gas from Venezuela, while Szijjártó argued for the easing of the sanctions which were in place against the country.

This could easily make one believe that Venezuela is an important ally of Hungary and the Hungarian government ... Although many have now recalled that in 2024, Hungary vetoed a joint EU statement on the disputed results of the Venezuelan elections, the truth is that it joined the initiative with a delay. But following Maduro’s kidnapping by US forces on 3 January this year, only 26 of the EU’s 27 member states called “for calm and restraint by all actors, to avoid escalation and to ensure a peaceful solution to the crisis". There was one country which did not support this: Hungary.

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It would therefore seem logical to think that Hungary stood up for its partner with whom it had sought an intensive economic relationship, but the comments coming from the government are telling an entirely different story. Balázs Orbán, the Prime Minister’s Political Director [not a relative to the PM], for example wrote that “the hundreds of Hungarians evacuated from Venezuela have told us about the oppressive dictatorship that had been established there”. And pro-government Mandiner’s journalist, Mátyás Kohán was quick to present the insignificant data relating to the trade between the two countries. He wrote: “Here, you can see proof of the friendly relationship and the huge deals between Péter Szijjártó and his “buddy”. This, as you see, equals zero. There has never been any strategic agreement, gigantic deal about energy resources.”

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The events of the past few years therefore show that the Orbán government has long approached Venezuela without any moral compass or sense of values: when the need arose, they rescued people from there; when there was an opportunity to do so, they sought to do business there; and now they are calling the country a narco-state, even though a little more than two years ago, Szijjártó was full of smiles in Caracas. It is telling that the otherwise hyperactive Szijjártó did not post anything about Venezuela until Monday evening – except to write about Hungarians affected by the situation – and said nothing about what will now become of the secret agreement signed between the two countries in 2023.

At his press conference on Monday, Viktor Orbán actually admitted that the Hungarian position is that they do not want to take a moral stance on the US intervention: in his view, international law no longer matters, what matters is what the great powers want to do. "It happened, it is what it is, and what we are concerned with is whether it is good or bad for Hungary. And it is good for Hungary." Apparently then, two and a half years ago, Maduro was good for Hungary, but now, it is his downfall that is deemed beneficial.

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Archived link

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An investigation by the Institute of International and European Affairs urges the Irish government to speedily publish a National Security Strategy.

The report, co-produced by Deloitte Ireland, drew on interviews and discussions with public and private sector leaders that took place last September. In its interviews, business groups called on the Department of Justice to expedite high-level security clearances for staff applying for sensitive posts in critical infrastructure and services, because of “elevated” attempts by foreign intelligence agencies to infiltrate their businesses.

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Kieran O’Neill, a defence and security partner with Deloitte, said companies have real concerns over attempts by agencies in China and Russia to plant operatives.

“Ireland is a target,” he said. “Many organisations here are directly involved in countering Russian cyber threats in Ukraine, implementing sanctions on Russian officials, and involved in countering disinformation. “We don’t have the security architecture in place to expedite that security clearance process for people working in government and the private sector,” he added, saying more needed to be done to either “prevent that threat of espionage, or to detect it very quickly”.

The report tries to separate Ireland’s neutrality from the issue of protecting the country’s assets at a time when the security environment is at its most “challenging” and “dangerous” in recent history.

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“Of greatest concern is that the possibility of an armed attack on an EU member state — and its consequences for Ireland — are no longer outside the bounds of possibility,” the report warned.

Among the recommendations are that the Government should follow Sweden’s example and issue fact-based pamphlets to citizens on the risks in times of crisis.

Mr O’Neill said the Russian attack on Ukraine was the “pivot point” for European security, and events since then have elevated instability and tension.

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The report also urges the Government to develop a strategy to allow Ireland’s technology sector engage with the EU’s defence programme, which has allocated €150bn to boost investment in Europe’s defence industry.

“Ireland has a strong technology sector with dual-use potential, and with the increased focus on security and defence spending across Europe, there is a significant economic opportunity for Ireland that can also support efforts to lift our own security and resilience posture,” Mr O’Neill said.

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The threats have been acknowledged by Garda Commissioner Justin Kelly, who said last year that “hostile state actors” posed a threat to national security.

Irish exposure to security risks was highlighted last month by the five unidentified drones that appeared during the visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. The drones hovered over an Irish naval vessel that was guarding the flight path of Zelensky’s plane, before disappearing. They were later tracked to an unidentified ship.

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However, years after a National Security Strategy was promised, it is still being finalised. Work on developing a new National Security Authority to oversee high-level security clearances has only just begun.

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[Chairman of the Oireachtas Foreign Affairs Committee John] Lahart said he supports Irish neutrality, but believes “neutrality is nothing if you cannot protect it and ensure it continues”. He said Ireland needed to cooperate with others in order to protect Irish assets.

“That is not about joining Nato. But it is about ensuring that whatever we do on the security front is inter-operative at a very basic level,” he said.

The changing global climate has driven much of the debate about Ireland’s neutrality, with one issue being the Government’s plans to change the “triple lock”, which means the large-scale deployment of Irish troops abroad can only happen with Irish Government, Dáil and UN Security Council approval.

The Government wants to change the triple lock, arguing it gives Russia and China a veto over Irish peacekeeping missions.

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Meanwhile, former taoiseach Bertie Ahern believes Ireland needs to work with other countries to protect Irish undersea assets amid the growing geopolitical turbulence.

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Mr Ahern said he was doubtful that Trump would stage a military takeover of Greenland, as to do so would “wreck Nato” ... “I don’t think he’d try and take it over by military force,” said Mr Ahern. “I really don’t. If he did try to do that, it would wreck Nato and destroy confidence between the European Union and America.

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“If I was on the other side of the negotiation table, I would say to Trump: ‘Well, what are you looking for here? Are you looking for rare earths? Are you looking for oil? Are you looking for US security?’ And if it’s US security that he really wants, then let’s talk about putting back some military bases there.

“But if he wants it for rare minerals, then I think we’re all into a very difficult position, because if he were to pursue that, I cannot see how you could get an agreement. I can’t see Denmark or Europe agreeing to that position.

“If he really wants it, what he should be doing is compromising with Denmark and Greenland and with Europe to put back in his military bases.

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Archive link

https://archive.is/Z2TOR

“There was a time 20 years ago when people, perhaps rather dismissively in Europe and indeed elsewhere, might have been saying that China are imitators. I think that’s long gone now. I think China has very strong indigenous research capacities, strengths, and abilities, and therefore, genuine partnership is important,” he said.

cross-posted from: https://feddit.uk/post/42466166

Semi-impartial article, although it is easy to see what side Politico, or at least the journalist - prefers to lean in relation to the agreement.

POLITICO analyzes who is uncorking the Malbec — and who is crying into their Bordeaux (cough, Emmanuel Macron, cough).

Europe’s biggest ever trade deal finally got the nod Friday after 25 years of negotiating.

It took blood, sweat, tears and tortured discussions to get there, but EU countries at last backed the deal with the Mercosur bloc — paving the way to create a free trade area that covers more than 700 million people across Europe and Latin America.

The agreement, which awaits approval from the European Parliament, will eliminate more than 90 percent of tariffs on EU exports. European shoppers will be able to dine on grass-fed beef from the Argentinian pampas. Brazilian drivers will see import duties on German motors come down.

As for the accord’s economic impact, well, that pales in comparison with the epic battles over it: The European Commission estimates it will add €77.6 billion (or 0.05 percent) to the EU economy by 2040.

Like in any deal, there are winners and losers. POLITICO takes you through who is uncorking their Malbec, and who, on the other hand, is crying into the Bordeaux.

WINNERS

Giorgia Meloni

Italy’s prime minister has done it again. Giorgia Meloni saw which way the political winds were blowing and skillfully extracted last-minute concessions for Italian farmers after threatening to throw her weight behind French opposition to the deal.

The end result? In exchange for its support, Rome was able to secure farm market safeguards and promises of fresh agriculture funding from the European Commission — wins that the government can trumpet in front of voters back home. It also means that Meloni has picked the winning side once more, coming off as the team player despite the last-minute holdup. All in all, yet another laurel in Rome’s crown.

The German car industry

Das Auto hasn’t had much reason to cheer of late, but Mercosur finally gives reason to celebrate. Germany’s famed automotive sector will have easier access to consumers in LatAm. Lower tariffs mean, all things being equal, more sales and a boost to the bottom line for companies like Volkswagen and BMW.

There are a few catches. Tariffs, now at 35 percent, aren’t coming down all at once. At the behest of Brazil, which hosts an auto industry of its own, the removal of trade barriers will be staggered. Electric vehicles will be given preferential treatment, an area that Europe’s been lagging behind on.

Ursula von der Leyen

Mercosur is a bittersweet triumph for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Since shaking hands on the deal with Mercosur leaders more than a year ago, her team has bent over backwards to accommodate the demands of the skeptics and build the all-important qualified majority that finally materialized Friday. Expect a victory lap next week, when the Berlaymont boss travels to Paraguay to sign the agreement.

On the international stage, it also helps burnish Brussels’ standing at a time when the bloc looks like a lumbering dinosaur, consistently outmaneuvered by the U.S. and China. A large-scale trade deal shows that the rules-based international order that the EU so cherishes is still alive, even as the U.S. whisked away a South American leader in chains.

But the deal came at a very high cost. Von der Leyen had to promise EU farmers €45 billion in subsidies to win them over, backtracking on efforts to rein in agricultural support in the EU budget and invest more in innovation and growth.

Europe’s farmers

Speaking of farmers, going by the headlines you could be forgiven for thinking that Mercosur is an unmitigated disaster. Surely innumerable tons of South American produce sold at rock-bottom prices are about to drive the hard-working French or Polish plowman off his land, right?

The reality is a little bit more complicated. The deal comes with strict quotas for categories ranging from beef to poultry. In effect, Latin American farmers will be limited to exporting a couple of chicken breasts per European person per year. Meanwhile, the deal recognizes special protections for European producers for specialty products like Italian parmesan or French wine, who stand to benefit from the expanded market. So much for the agri-pocalpyse now.

Then there’s the matter of the €45 billion of subsidies going into farmers’ pockets, and it’s hard not to conclude that — despite all the tractor protests and manure fights in downtown Brussels — the deal doesn’t smell too bad after all.

LOSERS

Emmanuel Macron

There’s been no one high-ranking politician more steadfast in their opposition to the trade agreement than France’s President Emmanuel Macron who, under enormous domestic political pressure, has consistently opposed the deal. It’s no surprise then that France joined Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary to unsuccessfully vote against Mercosur.

The former investment banker might be a free-trading capitalist at heart, but he knows well that, domestically, the deal is seen as a knife in the back of long-suffering Gallic growers. Macron, who is burning through prime ministers at rates previously reserved for political basket cases like Italy, has had precious few wins recently. Torpedoing the free trade agreement, or at least delaying it further, would have been proof that the lame-duck French president still had some sway on the European stage. Macron made a valiant attempt to rally the troops for a last-minute counterattack, and at one point it looked like he had a good chance to throw a wrench in the works after wooing Italy’s Meloni. That’s all come to nought. After this latest defeat, expect more lambasting of the French president in the national media, as Macron continues his slow-motion tumble down from the Olympian heights of the Élysée Palace.

Donald Trump

Coming within days of the U.S. mission to snatch Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and put him on trial in New York, the Mercosur deal finally shows that Europe has no shortage of soft power to work constructively with like-minded partners — if it actually has the wit to make use of it smartly.

Any trade deal should be seen as a win-win proposition for both sides, and that is just not the way U.S. President Donald Trump and his art of the geopolitical shakedown works.

It also has the incidental benefit of strengthening his adversaries — including Brazilian President and Mercosur head honcho Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — who showed extraordinary patience as he waited on the EU to get their act together (and nurtured a public bromance with Macron even as the trade talks were deadlocked).

China

China has been expanding exports to Latin America, particularly Brazil, during the decades when the EU was negotiating the Mercosur trade deal. The EU-Mercosur deal is an opportunity for Europe to claw back some market share, especially in competitive sectors like automotive, machines and aviation.

The deal also strengthens the EU’s hand on staying on top when it comes to direct investments, an area where European companies are still outshining their Chinese competitors. More politically, China has somewhat succeeded in drawing countries like Brazil away from Western points of view, for instance via the BRICS grouping, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and other developing economies. Because the deal is not only about trade but also creates deeper political cooperation, Lula and his Mercosur counterparts become more closely linked to Europe.

The Amazon rainforest

Unfortunately, for the world’s ecosystem, Mercosur means one thing: burn, baby, burn.

The pastures that feed Brazil’s herds come at the expense of the nation’s once-sprawling, now-shrinking tropical rainforest. Put simply, more beef for Europe means less trees for the world. It’s not all bad news for the climate. The trade deal does include both mandatory safeguards against illegal deforestation, as well as a commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement for its signatories. ___

Source

In a response to US President Donald Trump's latest threat to seize control of Greenland, the leaders of the Danish autonomous region's five main political parties issued a joint statement late Friday declaring the future of the island should be decided by Greenlanders.

Archived version

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Today, the biggest news comes from Northern Europe.

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After months of unexplained damage beneath the Baltic Sea, Finland has moved into action by intercepting a vessel directly linked to the cable cuts. For the first time, a Russian operation that relied on distance and unclear responsibility has been exposed through enforcement rather than inference.

Finland intercepted and exposed a Russian-linked civilian vessel connected to the cutting of underwater cables between Finland and Estonia, marking the first time one of these grey-zone operations has been confronted directly at sea.

Footage released by Finnish authorities shows a controlled interception unfolding step by step in open waters, starting with Finnish patrol vessels pulling alongside and ordering the ship to slow and hold its course.

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This incident fits into a broader Russian campaign targeting underwater infrastructure across the Baltic Sea, where power cables and data lines form the backbone of everyday life. Over recent months, multiple fiber-optic and power cables linking Nordic states have been cut or damaged under suspicious circumstances, often near known shipping lanes.

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While there was broad agreement that these incidents were not random, the lack of direct attribution prevented authorities from acting beyond repairs and diplomatic warnings. The aim has created disruption that creates uncertainty, repair costs, and political hesitation without triggering a direct military response.

The method is simple and hard to counter, because civilian vessels move slowly along established shipping routes, blend into dense maritime traffic, and operate in areas where cables are known to run.

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The breakthrough came when investigators confirmed not only that the vessel was operating along sensitive seabed routes during the cable damage, but also that it was carrying sanctioned steel products.

This turned a pattern of suspicion into a provable violation, allowing Finnish authorities to move immediately from monitoring to action using existing law. Instead of another case of accidental damage in busy waters followed by statements and quiet inquiries, Finland now had clear grounds to act openly and decisively.

By anchoring the response in documented violations rather than intent or attribution debates, Moscow's usual escape route of denial and ambiguity collapsed the moment the cargo was recorded.

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For years, grey-zone operations have thrived because responses stopped at warnings, investigations, or diplomatic pressure. This case establishes a different precedent, as intelligence collection tied to legal preparation and immediate enforcement, allowing states to act publicly without escalating militarily.

Operationally, it lowers the threshold for boarding and inspection, politically it removes the need to argue intent, and legally it shifts the burden onto Russia to explain documented violations rather than deny them.

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This case shows another path, as it shows that intelligence gathering, legal preparation, and enforcement can be combined into a response that exposes the operation without turning it into a military confrontation. Once a ship is boarded and its cargo documented, the shield that protects hybrid warfare disappears.

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As an addition: A recent report exposed how Russia wants to drain Europe's investigative resources with its sabotage campaign, according to officials

Italy fined Cloudflare 14.2 million euros for refusing to block access to pirate sites on its 1.1.1.1 DNS service, the country’s communications regulatory agency, AGCOM, announced yesterday. Cloudflare said it will fight the penalty and threatened to remove all of its servers from Italian cities.

TL; DR; it will take many years.

Swedish producer is trying to to accelerate the process of extracting the elements vital for hi-tech products. The LKAB iron ore mine at Kiruna in Sweden is close to one of Europe’s largest-known deposits of rare earths (..).

The 17 rare earth elements – all found in Kiruna – include neodymium and praseodymium, critical materials for the powerful permanent magnets needed for everything from electric cars to household appliances and military jets. From mine to refined end production could take 10 to 15 years, say experts.(..)

“I think people often miss the point. They say ‘why don’t we just produce rare earths in Europe?’. But you have to have the entire supply chain to do that,” says Nigel Steward, a professor at Imperial College London, a materials scientist and a former executive in the US mining industry."(..)

The experience in Kiruna shows just how challenging it is to reduce the EU’s dependency on China, which is now the core supplier of rare earth magnets and willing to choke supplies, as it did last year, if politically desirable.(..)

State-owned LKAB is now trying to accelerate the process of mining, extraction, and separation of the crumbs from the ore, to help the EU de-risk as quickly as possible.(..)

"I’ve been talking in Brussels the past two or three years about the huge disadvantages we created in the 1970s and the 1980s when we closed the mining industry and started importing metals from South America, Africa, Australia,” he says.(..)

Asked why it has taken the EU so long to wake up to the dangers of dependency on China’s rare earth supply, he is blunt: “Politicians will never be more courageous than the voters.”

Right-wing Trump supporters in Central and Southeastern Europe have operated in a legal gray area for years. After the US attack in Venezuela, there's a growing awareness that Trump could pose a threat to them too.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45242789

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Russian Railway, which operates approximately 85,000 km of railway, is going through a crisis that has prompted Russian authorities to consider exceptional measures to avoid default, according to an analysis published by Europa Liberă. ...

Russian Railways’ total debt has reached approximately 4 trillion rubles (equivalent to about USD 50–51 billion, EUR 43 billion), at a time when revenues have been affected by the slowdown in the war economy and the highest interest rates in two decades.

The company, which has approximately 700,000 employees, is heavily exposed to state-owned banks, particularly VTB, and its inability to meet its financial obligations could have a knock-on effect on the Russian banking system, several analysts warn.

“This crisis at Russian Railways is one of the factors contributing to accelerating inflation in the Russian economy,” said Russian economist Igor Lipsiț, quoted by Current Time. According to him, falling revenues, rising tariffs, and inflationary pressures directly affect the population and companies dependent on rail transport.

The war in Ukraine, a systemic shock for the rail operator

The invasion of Ukraine was a systemic shock for Russian Railways. The prioritization of military transport, imposed by the government starting in 2024, has seriously affected trade flows and the punctuality of civilian deliveries.

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In an attempt to stabilize the financial situation, the Russian government has ordered the sale of the Moscow Towers office complex, a 62-story building in the Moscow City financial district, purchased by Russian Railways in 2024 for approximately 193 billion rubles (about USD 2.4 billion), according to the Ukrainian portal UNN.

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The Moscow authorities are considering several options to support the company, including:

• increasing freight transport tariffs;
• increasing state subsidies;
• tax cuts;
• using reserve funds;
• converting part of the debt into shares, which would give state banks direct stakes in the company.

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Web archive link

The study by the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) found that 21% of respondents reported thinking about emigration. Among Germans without a migration background, the share was 17%. Those who themselves immigrated to Germany were twice as likely to consider leaving (34%).

Paywall? https://archive.is/vKyQe

cross-posted from : https://sh.itjust.works/post/53141995

Germany back in 2023 signed a contract with Israeli company Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) for supplying Arrow 3 missile defense systems worth $3.5 billion. Already on December 1, 2026, at an airbase near Annaburg city in Saxony-Anhalt, the system was deployed and reached initial combat readiness.

However, it turned out that two days before official deployment, three unknown drones flew over this system. Moreover, Defense Romania noted that they flew at approximately 100 meters altitude directly over the radar station from Arrow 3 composition.

G27P assault rifles were used for this, equipped with Israeli Smash X4 smart sights, which have recently been actively promoted as a anti-drone solution. However, they failed to shoot down the unmanned aircraft, which then disappeared from the scene.

Later, German counterintelligence and military police classified this incident as an act of deliberate espionage. Defense Express adds that despite all importance of this system which, besides costing over $3.5 billion, is nearly Europe's only defense against russian Oreshnik and intercontinental ballistic missiles Germany couldn't protect it from three drones flying directly over it.