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submitted 4 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is from this SCMP article.

Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.


Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.

While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.

Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 96 points 16 hours ago

Ansarallah says do not vote for Trump or Harris:
https://xcancel.com/Seamus_Malek/status/1851871758200246345

"Trump's danger is not limited to the outside world, but also to America itself, and he may be the cause of its destruction, but it is not appropriate for the Muslims of America to embrace his election so that they are not the deciding vote for his victory. It is preferable for them to abstain from voting for either candidate because both of them are linked to destructive projects for humanity, whether they are bloody or contrary to nature."

[-] Parzivus@hexbear.net 76 points 16 hours ago

Me when Ansarallah tells me to do something I was gonna do anyway rat-salute-2

[-] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 49 points 15 hours ago

I am their strongest soldier fr

[-] FALGSConaut@hexbear.net 51 points 16 hours ago

I can't believe Ansarallah would tell people to vote for Trump like that oooaaaaaaauhhh

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 48 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago)

A relevant hadith. It could be said that voting for someone implies that you wish for their lives to continue.

Safwan Jammal bin Mahram Kufi was a very pious companion of Imam Ja’far as-Sadiq (AS) and Imam Musa al-Kadhim (AS). He used to earn his livelihood by hiring out camels. He owned a large number of camels. He says that one day Imam Musa al-Kadhim (AS) said to him, “Safwan every action of yours is meritorious except one.” “May I be sacrificed for you, what action is that?” He said, “You hire your camels to Harun al-Rashid (l.a.)”

He said, “I don’t give my camels for hunting or games but he takes them when he goes for Hajj and I do not serve him myself, I order my servants to accompany them on the journey.” Imam (AS) asked, “Do they pay you in advance or after their return?”

“After they return”, he replied, “Don’t you carry the hope that they return safe and sound from their journey so that you receive your payment?” “Yes.”

Imam Ja’far as-Sadiq (AS) says: “One who likes the oppressors to continue to live likes the disobedience to Allah to continue on this earth.” (Wasa’il ul-Shia) while explaining the Qur’anic verse, “... and do not incline to those who are unjust, lest the fire may touch you.” (Surah Hud 11:113)

Source.

[-] glans@hexbear.net 9 points 11 hours ago

hmmm interesting. If I understand the story, bin Mahram Kufi had a camel renting business. al-Rashid would just show up and take whatever camels he required for his Hajj. Assuming he returned alive, he would then pay the market fee for the use of the camels. Therefor, bin Mahram Kufi was in the position of hoping for the healthy return of al-Rashid although (I infer) he was considered to be a bad dude between these friends. I guess, absent the hostage camels, they'd be hoping the whole party fell into a ditch and was never heard from again? Is there some value in preventing a bad dude going on Hajj? I'm of the impression that every Muslim goes on Hajj and I've never heard of anyone being barred from it.

In he rest of the story, included in the link, bin Mahram Kufi responded to this by ditching all his camels. He ?pretended to be too old to run a camel business. But al-Rashid saw through the pretense and knew he was under the influence of the bleeding heart lib Ibn Ja’far. And says that if they weren't such good buds he'd be in deep shit. the end

Obviously I am missing lots of context. I see how it is related. Especially when I search for Surah Hud 11:113 and found a slightly different translation

And do not be inclined to the wrongdoers or you will be touched by the Fire. For then you would have no protectors other than Allah, nor would you be helped.

I find the overall story to be a bit equivocal because it is only the prior relationship (of providing the camels) that saves bin Mahram Kufi. If indeed it saved him at all; narrative just stops. What ought he have done the first time al-Rashid requisitioned use of the camels?

But point taken anyway. Do not incline to the unjust.

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[-] LargePenis@hexbear.net 88 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

Back online after two weeks of taking care of irl stuff. Random disconnected thoughts incoming:

  • Aunt and her kids have successfully left Lebanon into Syria and then into Iraq, very happy with that. Thank God for the Iraqis, we're forever indebted to them for just how extraordinarily generous they've been with the refugees. Fuck the Egyptians for not even doing 0.1% of that for the people of Gaza.

  • Son is already nearly four months old. Very nice kid tbh, not too many sleepless nights so far.

  • Damn the Ukraine war is progressing very fast now, I don't even have time to learn the names of the villages anymore. Cursed town Ugledar might have been the glue that held together Ukraine's defence in the south-east. Nonstop collapse since Ugledar fell and now we are looking at the first big Russian arrow since the first weeks of the war. South Donetsk is done if Russia reach Andriivka, that entire Kurakhove corner will fall in matter of weeks. Very interesting developments on the Oskol sector as well, don't understand why Ukraine is letting their east Kupyansk grouping get pinned towards the river and not withdrawing behind a very defensible river line.

  • I don't believe the reports about any ceasefire whether in Lebanon or Gaza. The Doha talks about Gaza are just a last ditch effort to provide a "peace in the Middle East" boost for Kamala, there's little real substance there. Same with the Lebanon negotiations, there's no incentive for any side here. Israel continue their forever war, Americans sell guns, Iranians have an excuse to lob missiles at Israel whenever they want now and Hezbollah are inflicting record damage on IDF losers.

  • Help me out Hexxies, who will win the election? My instincts say it's big wet Donnie, but idk these days. How are the polls looking? I read reddit and in their world Kamala will win every single state, while right wings dumbasses on Twitter say that NY is a swing state.

[-] GoodGuyWithACat@hexbear.net 27 points 14 hours ago

Trump will win but die before coming to office and also Biden will die before leaving office so Harris will be the first woman president for only a few weeks before handing the reins to Vance which ignites a civil war which is actually a bloodless coup that is redirected on the working class immediately.

[-] glans@hexbear.net 8 points 11 hours ago

fuck this is it

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[-] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 12 points 12 hours ago

Trump will win the popular vote, but Kamala will win the electoral college. Trump will blame China, Latinos and he will probably return to selling shoes and other right-wing grift stuff

[-] ziggurter@hexbear.net 11 points 12 hours ago

Trump will win the popular vote, but Kamala will win the electoral college.

Don't tease me like that. At least it would make the referendum on genocide ambiguous....

[-] sewer_rat_420@hexbear.net 12 points 13 hours ago

Glad to hear your family is safe for now.

As for the election, it is impossible to say and pretty much a dead heat across the real battleground states. Most people seem to think PA is the state to watch, so if kamala wins there she likely wins it all. If she doesnt win there especially if she loses by a relatively large margin (over 2% at least) its probably Trump. If it is actually close, we might not know the winner for a few days like it was in 2020 because of mail in ballots and stuff (depends on the states that end up being close though)

Of course it also doesnt matter much who will win. If trump wins, our descent into fascism might be a bit quicker but also more entertaining

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 31 points 15 hours ago

Huzzah that you and your family are safe. Are you remaining in Lebanon? In the north I hope?

I completely agree with you that all the ceasefire talks are one-sided PR nonsense. Much like Zelensky’s “peace conference” where he didn’t invite the Russians, it’s a comical farce

[-] Aru@lemmygrad.ml 21 points 15 hours ago

Huzzah that you and your family are safe. Are you remaining in Lebanon? In the north I hope?

he lives in America I think

[-] bbnh69420@hexbear.net 17 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

I was just thinking of you after seeing the Zionists bomb tyre. I’m glad they were able to get out. My instincts also say Donald

[-] Cowbee@hexbear.net 21 points 15 hours ago

Welcome back comrade!

[-] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 32 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago)

Glad to hear, thank you for checking in!

The following analysis could not be more vibes-based. My socio and geo-political knowledge of West Asia is limited. But I just have this… gut feeling, this hunch… that when the final story of Palestinian liberation is told, Iraq will play a decisive role (after the Palestinians themselves, of course). Is that a completely off-base hunch?

Edit: the US election thing, it’s literally a coin flip right now. Most of the swing state polls are within the margin of error. I do think rhe Puerto Rico thing will give Pennslyvania to Harris but I also think Trump will win Michigan because of Harris’ support of genocide. But neither of those are by themselves decisive for either candidate.

[-] scarcity_of_the_self@hexbear.net 39 points 17 hours ago

Thank you for the update and recap Mr. Penis

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 30 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago)

Glad to hear that your family had made it to Iraq safely. That is good news.

Yeah Ukraine is losing ground pretty quickly, their air defence is non existent, Russian stealth Su-57 fighter jets are launching cruise missile attacks at Odessa now, that's how far they can infiltrate. Sanctions on drone parts by China also seem to have hurt Ukrainian drone warfare units a ton.

The ceasefire reports are not credible as of now, the placeholder documents that leaked pretty much consisted of a list of US wishes with no grounding in the actual situation as it exists on the ground. I posted the leaked placeholder documents here

As for the US "elections", the polls show them to be at a statistical tie, but my gut feeling is the same as yours. I think Trump will sneak through similar to 2016.

[-] wtypstanaccount04@hexbear.net 27 points 17 hours ago

Welcome back!

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[-] sisatici@hexbear.net 53 points 16 hours ago

I really wanted to live in the universe where trump assassination was successful. I wonder how the fuckers there doing. Fuck you amerikkkans. Now I will never now

[-] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 16 points 12 hours ago

It probably means a Nikki Haley victory

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[-] Aru@lemmygrad.ml 38 points 15 hours ago

The day the U.S. sends a black transman into the UNSC is the day they'll crack the earth

[-] miz@hexbear.net 31 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

powell-propaganda this white powder is a substance called 'estradiol'

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 54 points 16 hours ago

Twotter to the rescue of liberal zionist swine

[-] Fishroot@hexbear.net 21 points 14 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

He had an opinion piece about Palestinians being ungrateful and can’t obtain anything if they are being vocal.

This is before he got canceled from the mainstream media and got into the anti zionist grift.

But I prefer him than that comedian Bassem whatever his name is that goes to Pier Morgan any other days

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 32 points 16 hours ago

It's not really news but I just can't pass an excuse to make fun of Mehdi Hassan.

This is in context to some nazi on CNN saying he hoped the liberal zionist died from pager.

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 38 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 16 hours ago)

This just shows the worthlessness in diluting one's message. Mehdi Hassan polished the boots of Zionists while trying to make a liberal friendly "defence" of human rights in Palestine, and some unhinged Zionist still called for his death on live TV.

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 26 points 15 hours ago

He's rich and famous though so he got something for being a sellout

[-] jackmarxist@hexbear.net 28 points 15 hours ago

Is there something going on in Georgia the country?

[-] kleeon@hexbear.net 31 points 14 hours ago

Ruling party won the election. Pro-western opposition and western NGOs are crying foul. Regular color revolution shit

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[-] CleverOleg@hexbear.net 63 points 17 hours ago

UN report accuses Israel of ‘deliberate war crimes’ against Gaza’s healthcare system

Navi Pillay, a member of the UN Commission of Inquiry on the occupied Palestinian territory, says an independent investigation found Israel is carrying out a “concerted policy” to destroy Gaza’s health system.

“This is just not reporting what we see on social media, but a very carefully fact-checked account of the destruction of hospitals, the deliberate targeting of doctors,” Pillay told Al Jazeera.

“It’s also the first United Nations report that … drew the conclusion there is the deliberate targeting of healthcare workers, the healthcare system in itself – which is a crime, a war crime.”

Israel makes it difficult to probe its deadly attacks by denying entry to independent investigators, Pillay added.

The report, delivered on Wednesday, concluded: “Israel has perpetrated a concerted policy to destroy Gaza’s healthcare system as part of a broader assault on the Strip, committing war crimes and a crime against humanity of extermination with relentless and deliberate attacks on medical personnel and facilities.”

Just more undeniable evidence of war crimes and genocide that the US will do their “it doesn’t look like anything to me” bit.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 30 points 17 hours ago

accuses

Not the word I would use

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[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 56 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

Fed accounts are bubbling. Rumours of an iranian counter strike.

Earlier today, rumours that ballistic missiles were being transported in Iran.

This evening, rumours that a large scale UAV attack with "hundreds" of UAVs is to be launched from Iraq.

Take with pinch of salt but something might happen.


In other rumour mill news, Ukraine claims they've killed 7 DPRK troops and captured one in the Kursk region.

[-] GoodGuyWithACat@hexbear.net 17 points 14 hours ago

This DPRK story doesn't really make any sense. Russia has the manpower to increase troops, why would it import Korean troops. More importantly, why would DPRK send troops in more than an advisory capacity?

[-] Fishroot@hexbear.net 17 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

The latest episode of Radio War nerd talks about the reason why dprk is on the front.

His theory is basically for engineering (it is unlikely to use them for combat since the language barrier would make it difficult to coordinate operations) The front is ww1 trench warfare and the dprk has some savoir faire with tunneling (according to the guest one town the russians was able to take was by tunnelling under an enemy position to blow it up).

Inb4 hamas tunnel jokes, the guest also implied that dprk assisted hezbollah with their tunnel infrastructure and this tactical knowledge was also absorbed by Hamas.

The other reason is that Russia and the DPRK might have a defence pact and it signal to south Korea and Japan that Russia has a stake in the peninsula if the situation goes hot.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 18 points 13 hours ago

My theory is that DPRK is very serious about preparing for war and they want combat experience.

Russia on the other hand might simply see it as an opportunity to alleviate pressure on its troops.

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 19 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago)

If ballistic missiles are to be launched from Iraq, that could suggest the use of missiles with Electro-Optical seekers, that will be able to provide more accuracy in a GPS denied environment than the missiles used in Operation True Promise II which only had GPS and inertial guidance. These missiles have a shorter range though, so Iraq could be used as a launching point. This is all hearsay though.

[-] Awoo@hexbear.net 11 points 13 hours ago

Rumour doesn't seem to be ballistic missiles from iraq, just drones. Ballistic missile movement is apparently within Iran itself, so probably transportation to launch sites.

Could be interesting if they do move some to Iraq though.

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[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 43 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 18 hours ago)

Halloween joke I saw for the news megaIf you're throwing things together for Halloween last minute this year, go to the party store, pick out three items at random, and just tell everyone you're Prigozhin in disguise

prigo-pog lives!

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this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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