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RFK Jr. can't win. But he and Cornel West could put Trump back in the White House.
(www.usatoday.com)
this post was submitted on 06 Apr 2024
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Fair enough. There are a lot of reasons why a 3rd party candidate might gain traction, and discrete policy differences is really only one. I would say of those you mentioned, only Cornell West has a coherent policy strategy worth speaking of. But they do still represent collective power, especially when they receive some marginally significant portion of a vote; they just don't necessarily represent a group that could be appealed to via policy. There's real effort that needs to be spent identifying why any candidate might be receiving attention, and they don't always represent a policy failure so much as general frustration (e.g. anti-establishment candidates and voters). But just because those candidates/parties/voters don't represent a clear objective doesn't mean there isn't power in their existence, nor does it mean their existence is random. It's for this reason single-issue challengers are more effective, because there's a policy disagreement that is clearly legible that can be responded to (Yang with UBI, Bernie with income inequality, Greens with democratic reform, ect). When there's a clear objective being communicated, a collective block of voters can move the needle.
This also isn't limited to 3rd party candidates; the current republican national committee and nominee is made primarily of aesthetic fascist components and no real policy direction, and they represent close to 50% of the national voting base. It's extremely important to understand why that movement attracts so many voters, and I think there's a real lessen for Democrats to take from the growth of anti-establishment voting blocks since 2016.
No argument there. The point of voting 3rd party (or from abstaining, or ticket splitting, ect) isn't to play electoral politics, it's to communicate some dissatisfaction with the primary choices on offer. The US faces a very serious crisis of democracy, but it's not for the reason most liberals think. The US presidential system is failing, in large part because it's electoral system has consistently failed to produce effective nominees and its congress has settled into an unproductive pattern of aesthetic opposition. If democrats were honestly concerned for the health of the democracy, they'd be paying more attention and addressing the concerns of those people threatening to vote 3rd party, abstain, or vote for a fascist. Instead they're hand-wringing about 'the other guy' and refusing to put forward clear policies to address the crisis. Even if they pull out a win in November, a fascist takeover will only become even more likely next cycle unless they enact bold policy.
I think they honestly are concerned for the health of the democracy, but I think they're limited in what they can do to address root causes because of their funding apparatus. Biden specifically strikes me as a person that cares deeply about the well-being of the citizens of this country and if he were able to wave a magic wand and reverse Citizen's United I think he likely would do so, but it unfortunately is not that simple.
Some Democrats are fighting in an asymmetric war as well (e.g. AOC and other "justice dems") which makes them less effective than they could be and in a constant electoral squabble, but keeps them from completely compromising their principles.
Ultimately, there is no issue as continually relevant in modern US politics as the power of money in politics (a.k.a. regulatory capture) and I do not share Biden's optimistic outlook for the future of this country given its current political state.
The primary complaint from leftists about Biden and most of the Democratic establishment is that they tend to prioritize the systems that yield electoral influence over solutions that would address any particular issue but might damage some arm of the system that is relied upon elsewhere in the party. This is why Biden is really good at putting forward policy solutions that sound good on paper but fall well short of their stated goal. He's great at harm reduction, but when you're someone like me who believes the problem is with the system itself, harm reduction isn't sufficient. They could 'wave a magic wand' and address campaign finance regulation, but the democrats need that structure to run their campaigns. Democrats can't consider solutions that might hurt their long-term electoral odds, and that's a huge-fucking problem.
As you zoom out further, that problem starts to loom larger and larger, until it encompasses the entirety of the US Liberal Democratic system. Leftists end up resenting democrats because the systems we are fundamentally oriented against are exactly the ones democrats wont/can't touch, either because there are rules in place to protect them or they depend on them themselves. The only way forward for leftists is to bring that tension to the foreground, and part of that strategy is to undermine the typical structures democrats use to reinforce their electoral advantage so that they're forced to reconcile those contradictions.
That's why vocal abstention and vote-spoiling/splitting are things I advocate for, because democrats can't address those issues until they personally risk loosing power if they don't, and i firmly believe that the risk of a fascist takeover in the US will continue growing until those things (wealth consolidation, voter disenfranchisement via campaign finance dis-regulation, privatization of essential resources, ect) are addressed. Fascist voters are responding to extremely real material conditions; they aren't going away until those material conditions are addressed.
We've simply run out of time.
It's not just (or even mostly) the democrats that need that structure. It's largely republicans who are (ironically) a minority party that need outsized money from a smaller pool of donors. Republicans do not have majoritarian, grass roots support for just about anything they do and rely to an even larger extent upon big money donors. But there also is no magical wand Biden could wave. You need legislation to pass which requires the legislature to act. Democrats have a non-filibuster proof majority in the Senate and a minority in the House...you ain't passing jack shit with those numbers besides perhaps more billions for bombs. I'm surprised they even have a speaker and have funded the government with the state of politics in this country. I almost would've bet money on a default a while back.
I don't know if either part of this statement is true. Historically, fascist movements have been defeated in different ways but at least one of them is just killing them in war.
I also don't understand advocating against democrats in the short term even if it means they eventually lose out to fascism because every moment that you aren't under fascism is better than living under it. Delay the inevitable long enough and it is no longer inevitable (see: Trump and the justice system).
Frankly, I find it surprising that there is not a group or person who haven't tried primarying against Republicans from left of the Democratic party position.
The GOP seems like a cult-of-personality shell that is completely moveable on policy (because it doesn't have any except perhaps hating "those people").
That's perhaps because it's all about the $$$ and the leftist groups have found themselves wanting in that area, but ultimately I find it a lot less miserable to live under Republican presidents than Democratic ones, even if it isn't utopia.
And to kind of conclude the earlier discussion, I think we're closer to either a civil war or a blind black jewish lesbian woman amputee winning the presidency than we are to a viable 3rd national party in this country.
I would really recommend reading "The Fascist Revolution: Toward a General Theory of Fascism", which is AFIK the most comprehensive exploration on the topic. He theorizes fascism evolves out of a decline of an existing cultural/economic disenfranchisement and dissatisfaction with the existing order. As per putting fascist movements down: it has rarely (if ever) been put down by voting it away.
I don't know if this has ever been the case with fascism, but i'd be happy to be proven wrong. Especially if fascism arises out of systemic dissatisfaction, I don't know how fascism could possibly just 'go away' on its own.
I would like nothing more than for democrats to address the problem, they just haven't shown the interest in it. This is also a particularly privileged view that ignores the conditions that lay the groundwork for fascism. Many of us currently live under economic and cultural oppression and violence right now, there just happens to be a number of those who don't share that experience and would very much like things to stay the course.
I don't disagree, but that's not really the point of voting 3rd party.
Fascism kinda requires a single, "strong man" leader. The Achilles heal of all "dear leader" movements (autocracies, monarchies, etc.) is that the succession plan is garbage. People in these movements really get invested in "the guy" at the center of them, and it's difficult for anyone else to scratch that same itch for them (e.g. Desantis).
If you run the clock out on Trump (i.e. he fucking dies of a filet of fish overdose), I suspect his supporters will go in the can right along with him.
The demographics are also changing and not to get all "demographics are destiny" on it, but if we somehow miraculously manage to stave off Republicans at the ballot box for a few more election cycles they may be forced to reform themselves in order to be relevant again....if it doesn't spiral into out-and-out violence at which point politics are kind of irrelevant.
I don't mean to sound rude, but that is incredibly naive
Some probably start following his charisma-less kids while others turn into huge desantis fans or something, but the party's largely over once dear leader is in the ground.
If democracy is still in place at the time, that'll mean that those factions will have to choose another guy.
A cult leader dying is the beginning of the end of the cult. Their power typically doesn't transfer well to others.