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Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/23/politics/joe-biden-poll-reelection-2024/index.html
His chances of winning were very slim before he became a genocide supporter, now it's 0%. He's losing in all preliminary polls.
That same survey notes 69% don't want Trump to run again either. Hell I don't want Biden to run again but I'd still vote for him over Republicans any day.
Also, how many of those polled are people that are low-info types that don't even vote AND fall for the BidenSoOld drumbeat from the "liberal media"?
Honestly… the article is pitching him bowing out as a bad thing which is freaking hilarious.
It probably makes the dem a shoe in. If they have any one more progressive than normal, definitely. Even Philips whose a younger Biden Clone would do better.
And that is exactly what everyone should do, because on policy Biden is better or the same as Republicans, but as was shown time and time again, not everyone is you. For Republicans to be able to win, all they need is for people not to show up to vote at all, and his backstab with student relief cuts and blind genocide support guaranteed that a significant chunk of young voters will not show up.
How did he backstab on student relief? That was entirely the conservative Supreme Court.
And I'm not particularly endorsing of his support for Israel but to his credit he has already shifted his support to calling Israel's actions as indiscriminate bombing and has denied them apache helicopters. Once again the key question is would Republicans care about such genocide at all? Absolutely not.
Abortion is also still a massive topic. There are several things not going the Republican way, and the economy's high level metrics is just one of them.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2023/10/12/biden-student-loan-debt-forgiveness-has-limits/71143424007/
US vetoed every single ceasefire proposal in the UN. Telling Israel to bomb innocent civilians nicer is not shifting support.
Relatively. It's far from the main issue based on polling. https://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-november-2023/
I think only ~17% of people said they feel that their life improved economically under Biden (because while it looks good on paper, he didn't do anything to meaningfully help people in their day to day), all polls show that they trust Republicans more on the economy.
That link on student loan doesn't really lend credence to the "Biden Backstabbed students on student relief." Biden's first plan was broad-based, but again, the conservative US Supreme Court blocked it. That is a direct consequence not of Biden but of putting Republicans in office.
I'm not disagreeing, necessarily, but you're also deflecting the key point in the context of our discussion: Who is going to come down harder on Israel -- Biden, or Trump? The tone has already dramatically shifted in just two months from the Biden administration standing lockstep with Israel and their capacity to defend themselves from the admittedly extremely atrocious October 7th attack -- to beginning to shift gears and label their attacks, "Indiscriminate bombing" of civilians.
True, but we know how polling failed to cover Millennials or Zoomers in both 2020 and 2024. The reality is that Democrats haven't particularly defended themselves on the economy ahead of the election while right-wing media has gone full-tilt in painting this picture of a completely broken economy when it's anything but. Per your own study, Inflation is a chief concern; but inflation is objectively falling as well. If that metric continues to decline as the trend suggests, then there is little room for Republicans to make ground except for perhaps Immigration; but that's a dead-horse beaten every election cycle so I consider that a constant.
Considering the economy was in a worse spot in both 2020 and 2022 and Democrats did better, I'm not too concerned.
Forget the curve-ball that is Trump's 91 criminal charges across 4 Grand Jury indictments and how that is going to be perceived by swing-voters.
While the original plan was blocked by court, it was blocked because he used COVID-19 emergency power instead of inherent Department of Education power. And credit where it's due, he did move to the second plan, but instead of keeping it the same as the first, he lowered the number of people that it covers. So now a bunch of people who submitted for relief under the first plan are not covered, and if you think that doesn't hurt him, you are delusional.
I think we both know that Biden is more easily influenced under public pressure, but he's a self-proclaimed Zionist so expecting anything more than verbal warning is naive. Words don't matter when he's directly supporting the genocide financially and by blocking ceasefire proposals in the UN.
Like I said, from the numbers perspective the economy looks great, but when you actually poll people on their financial situation it gives the opposite results. If that's just a result of flawed polling, maybe, can't say.
Immigration is the biggest joke and the one where reality is irrelevant. Biden literally kept 100% identical policies on immigration as they were under Trump and everyone saying Trump good, Biden bad or vice verse depending on their blind party loyalty.
It's ironic, because the only stated reason by Biden for running is defeating Trump. He doesn't even have his policy agenda published anywhere, (yes, really). But the reality is that if Trump gets booted, that's even worse for Biden, because in polls any other candidate beats him in general elections by more than Trump.
Biden hasn’t done anything on debt relief that shouldn’t have happened years, even decades ago.
The loan forgiveness that has happened has all been literally for contracts that should have been forgiven long before now- and hasn’t. Because of fraud by the loan servicers... That fraud is still on going.
Do you have a more recent source? Your link is more than fifteen months old.
https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/2024-trump-biden-presidential-rematch
From 2023 April
From your link: 88% of Democratic voters say they’d definitely or probably vote for Biden.
Even if 100% of them votes for him, it's not enough to win, since a popular vote does not determine a winner.
Who would you run in his place? I'll go ahead and laugh at your answer now though
Literally any other corporate Democrat polls better than Biden. There were a few polls done Biden vs. generic Democrat and Biden was loosing all of them. It's also reflected in 60-70% wanting someone else polls.
Any of the fifty “that could also beat Trump”.
In fact most probably, could. Any one to the left of centrist would get the progressive voters (most are young,) that are unenthusiastic with Biden while also retaining the “88%” people are citing, whose sole reason for doing so is “Not Trump.”
“Blue no matter who” needs to start with a reasonable candidate- of which, Biden is not.
lol cute; you have a couple of assertions predicated on links from april and 2022, but you're SO SURE of your conclusion.
you have absolutely no credibility beyond repeating talking points from Fox.
If you actually cared to check, the same is true for the other side. Nobody wants a Biden v Trump rematch. People are tired of them.
I actually think Biden was the best modern US president on policy, but him being the best doesn't mean he's good.
He lost young voters with supporting genocide and cutting back on his student debt relief he promised. Then he lost Muslims with supporting genocide in Gaza. He even managed to fuck up union support with forcibly ending the railroad workers strike.
If check the numbers, without young voters he has 0% chance to win even if everything stayed de facto the same as in 2020, but his support got worse from others groups as well. So you can continue living in your imaginary bubble, but the statistics pains a different picture.
Here are even more recent polling on him losing https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-12-14/trump-leads-swing-state-poll-as-biden-s-core-voters-drifting-away