this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2026
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[–] Photonic@lemmy.world 87 points 2 days ago (18 children)

I’ll believe it when I see it. I have been hearing this since 2022 and they’re unleashing more and more ballistic missiles on Kyiv every week

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 18 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (42 children)

It was predicted for more than 2 years, and it's happening now.
The Russian economy is collapsing, The Russian wealth fund is empty, and Russia has been selling gold reserves to prop up the economy, oil exports are dwindling, and they have to import refined oil products now at inflated prices.
The Russian infrastructure is collapsing too, and farmers can't get the harvest done, because fuel is either not available or too expensive so it will cost more to harvest than to let the crops rot in the field.

The fact that you are not seeing it, is not because it isn't happening.
I have no idea why so many upvote you not knowing what's going on.

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Russian economy getting destroyed and Russia killing civillians are 2 different things.

They can keep up the murder for long, but they can say goodbye to their war goals.

[–] Lucius_Sweet@lemmy.world 4 points 1 day ago (1 children)

We've been hearing the same idiots saying "sanctions didn't work immediately therefore they don't work" since 2022. Those of us with higher than room temperature IQs realised that Russia planned for the war and sanctions to the tune of a $600 billion savings fund.

I still find it hilarious that Russia left about half of this in hostile countries that confiscated it immediately. Imagine Russia had that extra cash? They probably would have had a chance of winning this war without that blunder.

[–] Photonic@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I never said that sanctions don’t work to hurt a country’s economy. That part is evident.

However, very few wars have been ended by sanctions alone. So in that sense, no, they do not work anywhere near as well as everyone thinks they do.

[–] Lucius_Sweet@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

You would have a point if it was sanctions alone that Russia was facing.

It is fortunate in this case that Russia is also up against a well motivated Ukrainian army whose attacks have been increasing in sophistication as the war has progressed. Russia on the other hand has been on the back foot recently, they have appeared unable to adjust to Ukraine's drone strikes on logistics behind the front lines and have had a net loss in square km gained the last 4 months in a row.

[–] Photonic@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I wouldn’t say the Russian side is doing well, I completely agree with all of that.

But if someone has “hit their limits” like the article claims it means they can’t go on anymore. The fact that they can still ramp up attacks and aren’t losing ground massively means that hasn’t happened yet.

The war is at an impasse right now and I don’t think the next few months of the war are going to be very pretty…

[–] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

But if someone has “hit their limits” like the article claims it means they can’t go on anymore.

When somebody "hits their limit" that means they are stagnating and not falling or collapsing. It is also important to be clear that this is about the economy.

If the Russian war economy would not be able to increase overall production(not necessarily production of specific weapons, but overall), you would expect them to slow down their advance and take higher losses, as the soldiers lack weapons and whatever to make that happen. We also we see fewer air attacks against Ukraine.

That seems to be the case. Russian personal casulties are generally pretty high and they are not taking a lot of land. At the same time Shahed attacks are 30% down in June compared to May.

Big losses would happen, if Russias economy collapses and only some time after that. That might be the case given the current fuel situation in the country.

[–] Photonic@lemmy.world 0 points 23 hours ago

It is also important to be clear that this is about the economy.

Correction: the war economy. Important distinction because it is a specific type economy that has switched to mainly sustain a war at the cost of other expenses, and not a normal economy. If the war economy reaches its limits, so does the war effort.

Shahed attacks are 30% down in June compared to May.

Mostly because they have been proven ineffective, since Ukraine is shooting almost all of them down. It doesn’t prove anything about the economy.

Again, I’m not convinced Russia will soon be on its last leg, I want to be hopeful, but I’m not anymore at the moment.

Seeing is believing…

[–] Nalivai@lemmy.world 5 points 2 days ago (1 children)

they’re unleashing more and more ballistic missiles on Kyiv every week

They don't though. They're still doing it, but they're not doing it more, and that's not for the lack of trying.

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[–] badgermurphy@lemmy.world 13 points 2 days ago (2 children)

You are seeing it, it is just very far away and doesn't happen all at once. Just as an organism can have 100 things wrong with it, be terminally ill and refuse to die for decades, a country can be in a tailspin of decline for a long time.

Russia has dwindling international partners, ever-fewer customers for its resources, crippling domestic fuel shortages, and a devastated working-age male population. Just as its taking a decade or more to finish crashing, they'll feel this for long after they stop doing the dumb things that have caused it.

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[–] LordXDnl@literature.cafe 21 points 2 days ago (3 children)

Man I dont know about the missiles. But yeah I feel we read this article every week. "Sanctions are about to grind russian economy to a halt", "Russias oil industry about to implode", "Russian war industry about to hit its limit".

It just never really seems to do so.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 7 points 2 days ago (2 children)

I feel we read this article every week

No you haven't, for 2-3 years it was predicted, difference now is that it's actually happening.
Most of us thought Russia would collapse sooner, but now it's actually here. The Russian economy and infrastructure is collapsing, with widespread fuel-shortages despite heavy rationing, and fuel so expensive farmers can't afford to harvest.
The Russian federal economy is out of money, their wealth fund is used up, and they've sold gold reserves to get by beginning already months ago.

“Russian war industry about to hit its limit”

Where did you see that claim? Seems a lot like a straw man to me, because everybody have said all the time that the Russian war industry will be the last to be affected by the economic collapse. Because it has the highest priority.

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 1 points 1 day ago

well they better get putins treasure trove he has stashed in european banks.

[–] WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 day ago

No you haven't, for 2-3 years it was predicted, difference now is that it's actually happening.

yes we have. lemmy was basically flooded with garbage tier articles for the past years not predicting it but claiming it as current fact.

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[–] lIlIlIlIlIlIl@lemmy.world 13 points 2 days ago (4 children)

It happens slowly, then all at once

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[–] badgermurphy@lemmy.world 6 points 2 days ago

Oh look! The photon guy wants to see stuff. 😂

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