Below is my weekly summary/preamble, spoilered so that you can get down into the comments more easily.
preamble
I don't think I've ever seen a ceasefire that, for weeks, is so obviously about to be broken at any given moment and yet nonetheless continues. So-called Operation Freedom may mark a resumption of hostilities, as the US seems to once again be trying an active role in attempting to take control of the Strait of Hormuz. The initial, ridiculous claim was that the US Navy would itself be escorting ships (i.e. just getting your destroyers sunk for no reason), and as expected, this was just said to try and calm markets. Nonetheless, there is reporting that other military measures may be taken against Iran soon if they continue to keep the Strait closed, so we'll see how that all goes.
US gas prices at the pump have hit close to record high numbers, and generally the average citizen is growing mightily displeased with Trump, even those in previously safe demographics. Unfortunately, this discontent is not immediately geopolitically relevant - as both parties are staffed from top to bottom with pro-war Zionists with only a small group of exceptions, and third parties will necessarily never be allowed to take power, there is no way for US public discontent to manifest itself in a change of policy. What is more likely to cause changes in policy will be grumbling from American capitalists, of which there are many factions. The fossil fuel capitalists seem perfectly content for this situation to continue indefinitely, with record profits. I imagine the financial sector is pretty nervous, but aren't currently demanding Trump cease fire - same for the tech industry which has now been engulfed in AI, as the bubble seems to be close to, but not quite, popping. Smaller businesses and agriculture are perhaps the most likely to be crying uncle, but may have limited representation.
Going back to Western Asia, the situation from last week has remained broadly the same. The Zionist tactic in Southern Lebanon appears to essentially be "If we can't occupy this land, then you won't be able to, either," as they are doing their utmost to physically destroy as many towns and villages on the border as possible. Hezbollah's success at keeping Zionist territorial gains fairly minimal, and the growing onslaught of not only anti-tank guided missiles but also FPV drones causing chaos where the Zionists attempt to hold and advance, have, I believe, partially contributed to Iran not pushing the issue of a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon so far as to cause them to feel the need to resume fire on the occupied territories.
The US blockade has truly been a mixed affair. While it's obviously quite leaky and many Iranian ships are getting through, Naked Capitalism and others have pointed out that it's not just Iranian ships that are transporting goods, and that there are ~70 Chinese ships with Iranian oil that are much less willing to risk running the blockade. But, once again, the success of the blockade isn't all that relevant. Iran has experienced periods of a couple years straight without meaningful oil exports and survived, and their extensive land borders make a true siege impossible - goods can and are still pouring into the country, and with Pakistan recently allowing Iranian exports through their border, as well as the Caspian Sea in the north and Iran's railway link to China, Iranian exports can still leave just fine. Another interesting indication is that China's government has ordered Chinese businesses to ignore US sanctions against Iranian oil, so we'll see how that develops. And while the issue of maintaining sufficient public cohesion in the wake of economic suffering is a potential long term problem, we haven't yet seen any meaningful scenes of public discontent inside Iran. Internal unity appears to be staying at record levels in the face of total war.
Even being as careful as possible to check my own biases, it's difficult for me to form any other conclusion other than that Iran is winning, and people like Armchair Warlord have even pointed out that American tactical victories have been pretty minimal so far.
Last week's thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
WSJ - Israel Built and Defended a Secret Iran War Base in Iraq. The base, set up for special forces and search-and-rescue teams, was almost discovered early in the conflict.
Full text ~800 word article
TEL AVIV—Israel set up a clandestine military outpost in the Iraqi desert to support its air campaign against Iran and launched airstrikes against Iraqi troops who almost discovered it early in the war, people familiar with the matter including U.S. officials said.
Israel built the installation, which housed special forces and served as a logistical hub for the Israeli air force, just before the war started with the knowledge of the U.S., the people said.
Search-and-rescue teams were positioned there in case Israeli pilots were downed. None have been. When a U.S. F-15 was shot down near Isfahan, Israel offered to help, but U.S. forces managed the rescue of two airmen themselves, one of the people said. Israel did carry out airstrikes to help protect the operation.
The Israeli base was almost discovered in early March. Iraqi state media said a local shepherd reported unusual military activity in the area, including helicopter flights, and the Iraqi military sent troops to investigate. Israel kept them at bay with airstrikes, one of the people familiar with the matter said.
Israel’s military declined to comment. The Iraqi government at the time condemned the attack, which left an Iraqi soldier dead.
“This reckless operation was carried out without coordination or approval,” Lt. Gen. Qais Al-Muhammadawi, deputy commander of the Joint Operations Command, a central security body, told Iraqi state media in comments about the attack in early March.
In a complaint lodged later in March with the United Nations, Iraq said the attack involved foreign forces and airstrikes, attributing it to the U.S. The U.S. wasn’t involved in the attack, the person familiar with the matter said.
The clash was widely reported in Iraqi and Arab media and generated speculation about the identity of the combatants.
After the initial report from the shepherd, Iraqi soldiers set out in Humvees and drove at dawn toward the site. The group came under intense fire, killing one soldier and wounding two others, Muhammadawi said.
Iraqi authorities dispatched two more units from the country’s Counter Terrorism Service, which played an important role in Iraq’s fight with Islamic State, to join a search of the area. It found evidence that military forces had been present in the area.
“It appears there was a certain force on the ground before the strike, supported from the air, operating beyond the capabilities of our units,” Muhammadawi told state media.
An Iraqi government spokesman declined to comment further on the incident or whether it knew of the Israeli base.
The U.S. has carried out multiple strikes in Iraq to protect its own bases and other assets.
Details of the base—and the risks Israel took to establish and protect it—help fill in the picture of how the country managed to fight an air campaign against an enemy around 1,000 miles away.
The base in Iraq allowed Israel to get closer to the battlefield. Israel deployed search-and-rescue teams there so they could respond more quickly if needed for emergency rescue missions, the people familiar with the matter said. Israeli air force special forces, trained to carry out commando operations in enemy territory, were also present on the base, according to one of the people familiar with the matter.
Israel’s air force carried out thousands of strikes against targets in Iran during the five-week campaign.
U.S. forces often set up temporary operational sites in the lead up to military operations, security experts say. A makeshift forward-operating base was set up inside Iran and used in the mission to rescue the U.S. airmen whose plane went down in early April.
The U.S. blew up planes and helicopters that got stuck there during the mission.
“It’s normal that before operations you reconnoiter and set up these kinds of locations,” said Michael Knights, the head of research for Horizon Engage, a strategic advisory firm.
The western desert region of Iraq is vast and sparsely populated, making it an ideal location for temporary outposts, Knights said. U.S. Special Forces made use of this area in Iraq as part of operations against Saddam Hussein in 1991 and 2003.
People living in the Iraqi desert have witnessed strange activity over the years, from militant groups like Islamic State to special operations teams, and have learned to stay away, Knights said.
He said locals told him they had spotted unusual helicopter activity there during the current war.
Israeli officials have alluded to covert operations during the war. In early March, the head of the Israeli air force, Tomer Bar, issued a letter to his servicemen.
“These days, fighters from special units of the air force are conducting special missions which could ignite the imagination,” said Bar, who ended his term as air force chief in early May.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-built-and-defended-a-secret-iran-war-base-in-iraq-3590851a
Did they have a cum extraction unit?
It's a secret
I can believe that the Iraqi government was not aware of this base, but it's hard for me to believe that the Jordanian govenrment was not aware and likely aiding directly or indirectly in the construction and resupply of that outpost, if the Israelis were coming and going from said base.
it is likely that the Iraqi government has little say in these matters, having been largely reliant on American guarantorship and civilian militias for most of its military power for at least a decade
There's a good chance it was a US base and they are giving Israel the "credit" to wash their hands of it.