I feel like the main discussion of this conflict should be about the complete destruction of American oil competitors. The goals in 2026 seem clear.
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- Destroy OPEC oil refineries, prevent the conflict allowing for a quick rebuild. Push blame on Iran and Israel for destruction.
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- Allow Ukraine to bomb Russian Oil and Gas sites. While loosening sanctions on Russia and placing blame on Ukraine alone.
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- Allow Chevron to take over Venezuelan oil reserves, make the barrel price so high that building refineries is economically viable.
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- America bullies NAFTA to limit oil sales to allies.
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- Prevent any renewable energy development in America and its Vassal / Allied states. Reopen arctic and deep sea oil production
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- Push America/Mexico/Canada/Venezuala as the world’s primary oil producer, hoping to get over 50% of yearly barrel production.
At a time where renewables and degrowth should be a globally enforced policy, American oil is setting themselves for their most productive and dominant period in history. In line with the buildup of data centers, they will have an industry in need of energy until the end of time. After the minuscule threat posed by public opinion favoring renewable energy in the Obama era, they have responded with overwhelming force. They are literally attempting their takeover of the planet and are clearly the only winners.
But that's the thing, West Asian Oil was already American Oil. The Gulf States are part of the continuum, US colonial control of Iraq's economy was more or less uncontested. With US sweet crude flatlining for years, US gas and shale-gas at capacity since the Ukraine War began, Canada and Mexico being, in essense, annexes of the US economy this entire misadventure is a net loss to US control of the oil markets.
They didn't go into Iran as part of a grand strategy. They went into Iran because Netanyahu and others assured Trump it was gonna be easy pickings. Now Iranian Oil might make a come back like never before.