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People are making a big deal out of a nothingburger. This is just going to be the first out of many many proposed ceasefires that are not worth the paper it's printed on for the very simple reason that neither party will agree to even sit down with the other side, let alone come to the consensus on anything and the third parties lack the means to make them sit down through force. It's like the millions of proposed ceasefires and talks and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. All of them amounted to nothing.

Negotiations will not happen until one side sues for peace or both sides realize that they are better off ceasing hostilities. A third party crafting the perfect ceasefire means nothing unless that third party has the means to force the two to sit down, whether it's through their own military waging war on the two or turning economic screws that destroys the economies of both parties. China's military is not strong enough to take on both the US and Iran and it won't make moves to destroy both economies for the sake of a ceasefire. Therefore, the ceasefire won't be seriously entertained by the two parties and is meaningless regardless of its particular merits and deficiencies.

All parties will commit to refraining from the use or the threat of use of force during peace talks.

If I'm Iran, there is no way this is acceptable in the slightest unless they've exhausted nearly all their missiles and drones. Or if they seriously think the US will nuke them

1. Immediate cessation of hostilities. This benefits the Americans. Trump gets an offramp from an unwinnable war that is destroying quite a lot of goodwill and political power. They'll rebuild their bases and rearm. Trump will claim this as a victory and say the regime has been changed to more reasonable people. The problem for the US right now is that they cannot just leave the region as Iran can continue hitting bases and gulf states.

2. Security and safety of Iran and the gulf states. Why would Iran want or need this. It doesn't seem the state of Iran is in immediate danger at the moment. Yes, civilians are being bombed. The state doesn't seem to be in much danger, however. And Iran has specifically targeted and called out the gulf states to change their policies around submitting to the US.

3. Targeting infrastructure. Iran could benefit from this since I assume it will be much more difficult for them to rebuild than Israel or the gulf states. But also, it feels like other states are more vulnerable than they are to infrastructure destruction.

4. Opening the straight. This obviously only benefits the US.

5. Working within the UN charter. Oh yeah. Sure. The UN that sanctioned Iran. That has condemned Iran's "attacks" on gulf states but not the bombing of Iran. Yeah. Ok. Work within that framework. International law, like assassinating heads of state will be respected.

This only works if China provides strong security guarantees to Iran. If not, it's just another pause for the US to regroup and pick a different attack vector

This is only useful to the extent China can enforce it. That means doing things like stopping all trade with Israel or the US if they violate it, something China has been generally unwilling to do.

my cease-fire proposal is that Iran should keep firing missiles and blockading the straight of hormones until Israel and the USA no longer exist. Then the fire will finally cease.

Speech-to-text is responsible for “straight of hormones” and I’m leaving it in.

Does "all war-affected areas" include Lebanon and Palestine?

Also, I would fucking hope that China was collaborating with Iran behind the scenes while drafting this, and there is more going on here than the obvious.

At first glance, this sucks, but "no threats or use of force during peace talks" is a pretty big deal.

At second glance, this sucks even more. After all the betrayals during negotiations, no agreement is worth anything without a strong military power able to enforce it. China won't offer to do it. Russia can't do it. UN peacekeepers are a joke. So Iran is left to do it alone by permanently removing US presence in the golf. It's the only way to peace right now.

If the Chinese really need their helium, they should negotiate directly with Iran

Pakistan is a US puppet state and the US/Israel would never honor any agreement with Iran. This is Chinese naivete manifest in its worst form; they've allowed themselves to be maneuvered into the role of useful idiot by US promises relayed by Pakistan. And I say this with utmost certainty: Iran will NEVER see a dime of reparations from the likes of the US and Israel and the US doesn't deploy expeditionary marine units for the sake of negotiating, they will use them first and the Chinese should fuckin know that

Politically and socially in Iran it would be deeply unpopular and will weaken the regime, Hezbollah would be left to fight on alone, and give the US time to redeploy and try again in a year

seems like China realpolitik moment

I dont think allowing passage through the strait is a good idea, even temporarily, that would give breathing room for the west, allowing them to wage the war longer before the economic crisis onsets

I see a lot of doomerism and criticism of China- maybe rightfully so- but to me, this sent a chill down my spine. I think they are putting this forward because they want to avoid nukes

I obviously don't know the true military situation in Iran, but based on what I do know, I don't think they should accept this deal, even if the us and Israel were open to it. There is no guarantees that the us will withdraw all assets from neighboring countries, nor a specific mechanism to ensure the Epstein forces won't simply ignore the ceasefire and attack again at some point in the future.

The details don't matter because neither side actually wants peace right now. At the beginning of the SMO you saw the same thing: every country that wanted to profile themselves internationally seemed to be promoting their own peace talk initiatives.

Everybody knows neither side of the conflict can force the other to give in to their demands right now. Just like with Ukraine, everybody will keep talking about being open to 'serious' peace negotiations.

Nah fuck this, China needs to fuck off and stop trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Them applying pressure on Iran to basically surrender and give up all their leverage is not strategic, and hopefully this is diplomatic bullshit for the public and not what Chinese leadership actually thinks is a good solution.

The strait stays closed until Israel and USA are brought to heel. They must be punished or this will continue to repeat indefinitely

The parties to the conflict will immediately stop attacks on ... peaceful nuclear infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants.

There would presumably be no ridiculous loophole for the US to “end the talks” and then attack.

Seems like a weird specific clarification in the 3rd bullet point that sounds like an intentional loophole. Not sure how you'd attack "non-peaceful nuclear infrastructure" while following the 1st and 2nd bullet points, still feels like some weird wording.