(credit to RomCom1989 for the title)
Image is of an Iranian soldier exulting in the launch of a ballistic missile aimed towards the imperialists.
short summary this week: US doing pretty bad and Iran doing pretty good all things considered, Strait of Hormuz is closed and will almost certainly remain so until the end of the war, Trump has no idea what to do, global economic crisis from strait closure is basically guaranteed at this point but who will ultimately benefit most and who will ultimately lose most is still up in the air.
longish summary is below in the spoiler tags
longish summary
While there are still major debates raging about how badly things are actually going right now and what the post-conflict map may look like, as we blaze past the two week mark on this conflict, it's becoming ever more obvious to almost everybody involved that this war is not going according to plan, if there ever was one. US airstrikes are, from what I can best determine, still mostly done with relatively less powerful (but still very dangerous!) and much less plentiful standoff munitions launched from bombers, though certain border and coastal areas are being struck with more powerful and more plentiful short-range guided bombs. This indicates that Iranian air defense is still sufficiently functional throughout most of Iran that the kinds of true carpet bombing done against Korea and Vietnam in the past (and Gaza very recently) is still too risky, though their airspace is still very much under assault, as we appear to have images of small groups of Western fighters breaching relatively deep into the country. Under some kind of Iranian pressure (drones? missiles? speedboats?) one aircraft carrier has retreated to a thousand kilometers from Iran, hiding behind the mountains of Oman; the other is sitting in the Red Sea, rather pointedly out of range of Yemen. As such, the ranges that Western aircraft must travel to bombard Iran is increasing, which reduces their frequency and increases strain on maintenance and logistics in the medium and long term.
While there is tons to say about the current social, economic, and military state of Iran, I don't think I have a reliable enough picture to give a good summary beyond "they aren't close to defeat or regime change". What has instead captured much of the world's attention is the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inspired some of the most delusional statements I have seen so far in my life, which is sincerely a profound achievement. For those out of the loop: the strait is currently closed to all shipping except those going to very particular countries (I've seen China and Bangladesh mentioned, and apparently India is in the process of working something out and may succeed or fail). This is because most ships are not risking the trip due to the ~20 tankers and container ships that Iran has already struck and disabled in the strait and in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the threat from Iran's military to Navy ships is such that attempting to create a convoy to guide tankers through it is suicidal to both the Navy and merchant ships. Right now it cannot be done, and it very well might be the case that it could never be done, simply due to the combination of Iran's naval forces (hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed, specialized speedboats designed for exactly this purpose), their drones (in the tens of thousands), their torpedoes, and if all else fails, their naval mines.
The Western reaction to this has been so moronic that it has almost integer underflowed into being philosophical: what does it truly mean for a passage to be "closed"? Has Iran truly "closed" the strait, or is the risk of traversing it simply too high for these cowardly sailors (who, for some strange reason, seem to care about their "lives" and "families")? How is it possible for Iran to have closed the strait if, according to the West, Iran's military has been totally obliterated? All these questions and more plague the minds of those who cannot accept the now-proven fact that there are indeed military forces on this planet that the US Navy with all its aircraft carriers and destroyers and submarines cannot defeat; and one of those minds is, rather hilariously, Trump himself. His thrice-daily positive affirmations that Iran has been defeated are taking on an increasingly deranged and almost pitiable tone; the lamentations of a man who has finally found a situation where him merely stating that something is true is insufficient to change the situation one iota. Despite stating that some kind of naval compact or alliance is being established to protect shipping, every Western country so far - from the UK, to France, to Japan, to Australia - has publicly stated that they will not risk their ships to do so. All this as the continued blockade yet further guarantees a worldwide energy, production, transportation, and food crisis that will have major global ramifications for at least the rest of the decade and almost certainly beyond.
If the anti-imperialists play their cards right, the US could lose much from this crisis, and others, like China and Russia, could gain a great deal. To quote Nia Frome (co-founder of Red Sails): "An effective Marxist has to be enough of an accelerationist/pervert to treat the obviously bad things that are going to happen as the political opportunities they are."
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Ok, so... What is Iran? What is the nature of Iranian political economy? It's not socialist (right?), it's not capitalist (right?), it's some other thing (right?) where the ruling class is largely an intellectual class (right?)?
70% of the economy is state run but it's not a dictatorship of the proletariat OR a dictatorship of the bourgeoisie... right?
Is there a good Marxist analysis of Iranian political economy?
Dictatorship of the bourgoisie with oversight (checks and balances!) from the clerics. "Supreme Leader" gives people the wrong impression, the religious establishment is just one part of the government and it shares with the military/IRGC and civilian (bourgeois) elements.
if not for the heaps of islamophobic propaganda over the years i imagine most religious westerners would view the state as a desireable harmony between religion driving welfare and social mores while maintaining a modern capitalist society
As I try to point out to libs over here in Aus, it's just a scary foreign way of saying something like "Prime minister". It isn't a 1:1 political position obviously, but they use the scary foreigner words to describe their government when functionally "Supreme" and "Prime" mean basically the same thing, and again, "Leader" and "Minister" mean basically the same thing.
The distinction between the president and supreme leader of Iran are a bit different and hard to compare with prime-ministers/presidents of euro-nations but it's quite valuable to point out neither are hereditary positions in Iran, something many European nations still struggle with.
the general difference seems to be a heap of racism, believe it or not
Yeah, the racism part is more my point, they aren't exactly the same position, but a term like "Prime minister" is basically just using different words to "Supreme leader" to say the same thing, and the media always tries to harp on the idea that their government is sinister and foreign by using terms like Supreme Leader almost as insults.
Like all modern countries not run by socialists, Iran is capitalist. And all countries have capitalist elements, as anyone should expect at this point in history.
In terms of political economy, you are probably asking this question because (1) Iran has a "distorted" economy due to heavy-handed imperialist sanctions and (2) yes it's officially run by a mix of clergy and bourgeois electoralism. Though we shouldn't forget their military.
The distorted imperialist-sanctioned economy makes countries that would otherwise integrate into the larger imperialist system, usually as neoliberally exploited countries, instead adopt forms of central planning out of necessity. Extensive price controls, import substitutions, military organization on a shoestring budget, and a need to compensate for a lack of capital flow in general to make the basics work (trying to run a capitalist economy that imperialists are trying to break).
The ruling class dynamics, I can't give you insider information on. I can tell you that being an intense target of imperialism for so long suppresses the internal bourgeoisie, both in function (they can't run businesses dependent on foreign direct investment) and politically (they inevitably try to pretend you can simply work with the imperialists and then get blatantly contradicted by imperialist oppression).
Edit: I forgot to mention that wet should always be mindful that imperialism is the primary contradiction and Iran is a good example of this.
That’s why it seems better to focus on what a country does rather than what it is, what Iran does is effective anti-imperialism, so while imperialism is the scourge of the earth they are all right in my book, despite not being Marxists.
I'm not asking to see if they pass my Approval Test or something. I want understand them better because they already have my support as anti-imperialists
It is a capitalist state, one with a government that is partially a Liberal Secular Republic and partially a Theocratic Meritocracy. Just because much of the nation is state owned does not change this. The USA under FDRs new deal was still capitalist. It's specific and unique quality is that it has been under economic sanction and siege for the better part of decades and has managed its internal economy to withstand this. It's most similar to Russia I would say.
I half expect that Iran would have been swept into the neoliberal waves of the 2000s all the way to today if it wasn't a war economy under siege.
Almost certainly in my opinion. A lot of the US's current enemies probably would've been happy little neoliberal puppet states if the US could've put aside their bloodlust for a single generation.
Actually Existing Anti-Imperialist State
I really like this question and have thought about it even though I don't have an answer. I have this vibe that we'll see non-socialist nations (they have no DOTP) forced into more Anti-Imoerialist positions for survival. And I wonder if this may be a pathway for some states to effectively transition into socialism. Maybe a DOTP will form somehow in these nations, but idk what if will look like or how. And again, just vibes on my part.
imo they're just autarkist capitalists. Workers are still paid a wage for their labor and the capital owners still collect the surplus value. The theological element in the economy comes through their bonyads but as far as I know they just act like any other state owned enterprise while funding some social programs with their revenue. I guess ignorant western liberals would call that socialism or a "mixed economy" but the relationship to the mode of production seems clearly capitalist to me in Marxist terms. The law of value holds, the accumulation of capital is persued.
However the theological political system is closely enmeshed with the economy so capitalists are tightly restrained in what they are allowed to legally do or are just part of the state apparatus as loyal administrators (like the bonyads). But I don't think it is that unique, just rare to still exist after decades of imperialism and IMF globalization. In libspeak you would call this a extremely corrupt and poor business environment that must have its markets forcefully opened. As communists Iran still deserves anti-mperialist support but let's not forget the theologians massacred all those leftists in the 80s for a reason.
My vibes-based take is that the mode of production is ultimately capitalist, but the superstructure is not capitalist (or if it's capitalist, it's under a completely illiberal capitalist ideology). The relationship between base and superstructure is dialectical, which means the superstructure will necessarily have to influence the base. For various reasons, the people of the IRI firmly hold on to their noncapitalist ideology to the point where it begins to pull the base away from being capitalist. I think there are also various material reasons such as the sanctions which also support the economic base being distorted in this fashion.
We shouldn't fall into the trap of being mechanists. To truly adopt dialectical materialism means allowing the possibility that consciousness, ideas, culture, and ideology substantially shape the material world and bend it to its will.
Came upon this article when trying to read some analysis within Iran. Seems vaguely Trotskyist but there's some useful info in here. Also written in 2025 when things looked a lot worse for Iran and their acquiescent leadership.
https://socialistproject.ca/2025/07/islamic-republic-iran-anti-imperialism-and-left/
My take is that they're "state capitalist", and most AES and many "anti-imperialist" states actually fit that category.
However that's a term even less defined and more contested than "socialism" or "capitalism" so I don't that that gets us very far by itself.
I think Richard Wolff and Torkil Lauesen have good thoughts on the topic (although they both describe things a bit differently and I do have some criticisms of each)
The clergy are bourgeoise in their relationship to production.
Amir Timur left a huge power vacuum in Iran. But he spared religious militant orders. So now these monks are the only thing that can manage the rule of law locally. They also mage pilgrimage sites, and foundations formed originally from donations of some king, some of which went to the stated purpose of the trust, some was invested in productive forces, like cottage industry and trade. So these guys are a mix of landlord and capitalist.
Then with the rise of new states the lost some of their sovereignty but remained a pillar to organize the community and often challenged the states they were under on certain policies that affected their interests or those of the community.
Eventually the shah started stacking their interests, and eventually they revolted. This revolt was insanely popular and led to a formation of what is essentially a people's militia, that's independent of the central government, it's decentralized and has its own ways of sustaining itself, in this its similar to the other trusts, in that it has holdings that function like private capital, to support the goal of it's trusts.
Many of the ancient trusts became bonyads, Wich function very similarly to zeibatsus or chebols, but that are technically charitable institutions.
Some people conflate these with the government, and that's were the 70 % figure comes from. But in reality they are independent private entities.
The government, is actually one of the weakest executives in the world and while it does manage some public companies, public spending should be about 12% of the economy.
The government wants more power for itself, and the main contradiction consists of these new class of technocrats who want a strong western style state. Capitulation to the west is a big part of this.
But this project goes against the interests of the bonyads and the militia who like their autonomy.
There is of course overlap, the recently deceased ali larijani was a representative of the technocrats class, but cemetery from a family of religious scholars, who would normally be alinged with the bonyads.
i think Iran had recovered from Timur by the 18th century. the religious institutions favored and spared by Timur are also not congruous with modern Iranian ones--Ismail and his successors made the heap of orders and charities twelver, while Timur suppressed them.
Timur did not suppress the twelves, he liked to debate them, he favored the safavids, and his regular sized son built the main mosque at astam quds razavi Wich is the most powerful bonyad today.
It recovered demographically and economically, but the foundations seemed to have changed. Alternatively Timur spared them because they were already entrenched powers and he could do nothing about it.
figure i'm mixing up the heap of other sects he lashed out at, whoops. still, the majority of iran wasn't twelver at the time so i'm not sure i grasp the significance of his contribution vs. later rulers that actively empowered them.
Yhea it's unclear how much of Iran was twelves at the time, even the safavids would have had some weird theological positions back then. It was until much later that they started building a sort of consensus.
But the structure of religious militan orders as the principal political economic class, as opposed to traditional warlords, feudal aristocrats, or patricians, seems to have remained unchanged.
You are correct in that the safavids had a lot to do with strengthening this system, with creating some foundations, changing others to twelvers shia, and even inviting scholars from Lebanon to organize a sort of orthodoxy. But by this time the economic structure was already controlled by these institutions, even if they were not shia.
the rise of the safavids themselves is mainly because Timur spared them while whipping out other political and military competitors.
i can definitely dig that, it makes a lot of sense. Timur certainly was the kinda guy whose ambivalence was nearly as valuable as support due to his heaps of wanton killing
This is just my take so feel free to disagree or critique.
I see the Islamic Republic as an inherently revolutionary state. It was born out of a revolution against the previous ruling class (the Shah Monarchy) and against the Western imperialists that were backing the Shah to plunder the country's resources. This was not a revolution solely led by Shia Muslim clerics, but a broad grassroots coalition of many factions, including Iranian communists and socialists, all united in a revolutionary struggle against Imperialism. And yes, many of them were intellectuals (even Ayatollah Khomenei, deeply studied both Islamic and Greek philosophy). This revolutionary character has not disappeared. Iran still opposes Western imperialism, both domestically AND across the entire Middle Eastern region, and they are actively providing material aid to regional factions that also seek to remove imperialist domination. I think it is comparable to other revolutionary movements that sought similar goals of national liberation from imperialism/ colonialism but were not socialist in nature, such as the Haiti Revolution or the Indian independence movement. Not necessarily a proletarian revolution, but an anti-imperialist one.
The key thing to keep in mind, is that Iran is not a proletarian or bourgeois revolutionary state, but an Islamic one. Among the first things the Islamic Republic did was to straight up outlaw Marxism and execute communist leaders, because they saw Marxism (among other ideologies) as a Western deviant idea that contravened Islamic ones. The ruling class is defined not by its relation to capital, but by its relation to Shia Islam, which is a religion the majority of the Iranian people follow. The current leaders of Iran still refer to the 1979 revolution as an 'Islamic Revolution' for this reason, because it liberated the Shiite masses from an oppressive non-Shiite system. Therefore, all their ideas/ policies/ attitudes will be defined by Shia Islamic ideals. This includes their economy, which as you stated before is not explicitly socialist nor capitalist. A good example of this is how Iran follows the Islamic law of Riba, which prohibits interest or unequal exchanges of borrowing as it is considered unethical.
Could this change in the future if the Islamic Republic were to one day open up its economy to the West like China or Vietnam did? Possibly, but it's kind of pointless to speculate this given the current state of things.
It’s important to note that maoism was a big influence on the shia political revival and islamic fundamentalism, because before the 70-80s, shiites were basically a voiceless marginal group.