this post was submitted on 19 Jan 2026
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Chapotraphouse
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I think Russia is counting on this to force on an eventual re-alignment of Europe towards Russia and away from the USA. Russia would prefer to have a friendly Europe to whom they sell fossil fuels. But if that doesn't work out, they would be satisfied with a Europe squeezed out of primary inputs and suffering from industrial collapse, and a USA disengaged from NATO.
The status quo from before the Ukraine invasion was kind of the worst of both worlds for them. Sure, they got the revenue from energy sales, and they had some alignment with Germany... but it all had the effect of simply powering Europe's industrial capacity, and did nothing to stop US economic and covert warfare against Russia. The Ukraine invasion seemed so confusing and counter-productive to me when Russia launched... but I can see now that strategic nudges were just not going to cut it anymore, and they had to shake up the strategic situation. (not that I think they were expecting such a long and grinding war).
The nordstream bombing really demonstrates that the USA knows exactly the game being played, and that they have a correct assessment of how much they can fuck around with European leaders before they'll really break.
Yes, lovely idea - but there are no Russia-friedly politicians in power anywhere in the larger EU countries to make this a reality. The entire EU establishment is solidly anti-Russia at this point and will be for years - especially once the disaster in Ukraine becomes more visible in the future.