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We just hit 1.5 C above per-industrial levels for the first time.
(www.abc.net.au)
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this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2023
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A decade ago, It was predicted that we would hit 1.5°C between 2050-2060, and even as recently as 2 years ago the prediction had moved forward to between 2030-2040.
The next decade or two are going to be very... interesting
The IPCC calculations were always criticized for being overly optimistic. Anyone following this debate knew that we would hit 1.5 C sooner rather than later.
We are definitely going to hit 3 degrees in our lifetime, once the melting tundras release their methane store.
Melting tundra releases methane, accelerating the increase in temperature. Rising temperature reduces polar ice, making oceans absorb more heat, accelerating heating. Climate pattern changes cause more frequent and larger wildfires, accelerating heating.
There are probably processes that work to reduce heating as it increases that I'm not aware of, but there are a lot of positive feedback processes which is concerning.
I believe the IPCC 1.5C was criticized because it included effects of a carbon sequestering process that hasn't been invented yet. That's pretty optimistic.
Nuclear war, for one. In a more naturalistic vein, asteroid strike or massive volcanic eruptions. People worried about climate change just refuse to look on the bright side.
Still better than patroling the Mojave.
Which is why I support the idea of setting up bases on the Moon and/or Mars.
Everything is accelerating, and nobody gives a fuck to do anything before it's too late. I hate the argument that NASA doesn't push its budget to prevent CC or even Space X. Because stopping CC is a global effort on a colossal scale. It's not going to work until it's too late. Might as well get off this rock.
Edit: Very fucking optimistic of you all
Ignore them. They're so hopelessly black-pilled, they're not likely to support any significant course of action.
We're gonna have to kickstart human expansion into space to not only save ourselves from climate collapse but also what's left of the biosphere. You're not wrong at all.
If we can't make Earth livable we certainly can't make the Moon or Mars livable. At best it will be a handful of people living miserably for a short time. "Get off this rock" just isn't a realistic option, and we don't have the time to make it so.
The Earth would be more habitable than the Moon and Mars even in worse than worse case scenario climate change conditions. The atmosphere will still protect us from cosmic radiation, and we won’t need pressurized suits and habitats. A lot of people will suffer and die, but humanity will not go extinct because of climate change, our society will though.
If you think leaving earth is going to solve our problems then I have a huge fucking bridge to sell you.
Pretty sure Musk already sold it to him. It leads to Mars and is made of rainbows.
If anyone is curious about what 3C looks like, here's a solid video on how a 3C world would look.
https://youtu.be/uynhvHZUOOo?si=yk8rvR1Bg3t4aKGe
It's 16 minutes so as a TL;DW: Not "extinction event" but extremely bad. Areas of the globe will simply become unlivable - and these areas tend to be highly populated. The resulting mass migrations and shortages of water/food will lead to conflict, often between nuclear powers. End result: humanity will keep on living, but it will be a significantly more deadly environment and a significantly more conflict-prone political environment. Economic collapse will hit major metropolitan centers.
If watching the video bums you out try to focus on the absolutely bonkers cool sideburns the climate scientist has. Cheered me up a little. Like a handsome person telling you that you have a bad disease.
Anyway, vote for climate-positive outcomes wherever possible and consider joining a climate lobbyist group. I'm a member of this one but I'm sure there are others.
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/
As if all that is not depressing on its own, there just a little less than half of the world that believe it’s a hoax. While they’re being cooked alive. And continue to vote for politicians that perpetuate the idea it’s a hoax.
At least we now get some attention by constantly overhitting the predictions.
what's worse is that it's actually 1.6 C
it says in the article here
Yes but only for a couple of months, averaged over the whole year it's significantly lower than that. Probably still on track to hit the annual average of 1.5 sometime in the next 10-20 years. Still definitely a dire situation but not entirely out of left field based on the recent estimates.
i had my doubts. i was questioning the lack of coverage of this news.
regardless there is still good reason to be concerned.
Soooo 3 degrees bij 2050? We are so fucked.
Yeah, it’s honestly horrifying to see the lack of reaction around the world. If you live anywhere near the coast, you better get the fuck out or tell your kids to.
I'm already telling people to get out of Florida*. I expect multiple Katrina-level events over the next 15 years. "Florida refugees" is going to become a common phrase.
Orlando might be more likely to survive than Miami or Tampa, but do you really want to be in the city surrounded by devastation?
We, as humans, seem to have lost the ability to plan more than 20 years into the future. Florida is still building in areas that are going to be crushed, and the only reaction is from insurance companies.
We're not trying to prevent it. We're not building any kind of defenses or contingency plans. We're not encouraging people to move out. We're not preventing people from moving in. In fact, we're building new and encouraging people to move IN to Florida. It's full on head in sand.
look at their leadership. look at their voters. look at the short-term profit potential.
Look at the percentage of these purchases that are foreign investors making cash offers and I think u start to see why the insurance companies leaving isn't having the effect it should.
If that massive icesheet in Antarctica gives way, Florida will be under water.
At the rate we're going, I think it will take a cataclysm of that level before people will realize how important this thing is.
Man I have like 5 family members and friends just move to Florida. They were tired of the high taxes and politics of California. At least they won't burn in a wildfire though!
I wonder if FL is attracting a certain type of moths to a flame... recently had a neighbor move to clearwater
I'm literally living 6 meters below sea level. Please send help!
It's nice by the coast though, I'd just put aquatic pilings under my house and have a ruggedised shelter built into it. Even if I live to a hundred and fifty with all the ice melted my land will still be under less water than the intercoastal platforms we've been routinely building since world war one.
Still tracking for 8.5C by 2100!
We will need to drop some ice cubes in the ocean around that time.
Thus solving the problem once and for all! Once. And. For. All.
Supposedly the new stringent heavy shipping emissions controls are having an impact on the greenhouse effect. Reduction of sulfur dioxide which had a reverse greenhouse effect is warming the oceans up more.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/#:~:text=Global%20emissions%20of%20sulphur%20dioxide,warming%20coming%20from%20greenhouse%20gases.
So this may be our first example of the threats of NOT enacting terraforming for climate change will have.
It proves that creating cloud cover will impact ocean temperature. There are methods of doing this without creating acid rain. Just spray ocean water as a fine mist into the air and you should get some nice fluffy clouds. We have the capability to cover entire oceans in cloud cover to mitigate global warming.
Obviously this would have some unpredictable impacts on weather patterns, but we're already dealing with that no matter what we do. We're at a point where we're desperate enough to try some crazy schemes like this.
Ah so we’re entering the scorched sky time line of the apocalypse.
After September 11th and the COVID lockdowns, scientists noted an increase in global surface temperature due to the absence of contrails. So yes, this is actually something we are already doing!
Sulfur dioxide however is an even more effective reflector of sunlight compared to water vapor. And don't forget, water vapor is itself a very greenhouse agent that contributes toward planetary heating.
Hank Green had a pretty decent video in this.
https://youtu.be/dk8pwE3IByg?si=lmRdxCnQS6OtYkqL
We can do the same thing without the horrible pollution that ships produced.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://piped.video/dk8pwE3IByg?si=lmRdxCnQS6OtYkqL
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
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I believe by "interesting," you mean "moist." At least, for everyone above/below ±35° latitude.
Also, I hope you enjoyed photosynthesis while it lasted because once the permafrosts at ±60° latitude thaw, we're in for a tough time.
Hate to break it to you, but everyone in the world is either above or below ±35° latitude.
Yup. Good luck out there.
I can't quite figure out if it's supposed to mean everyone within 35° of the equator latitude, or everyone outside it.
I believe they meant above 35°N / below 35°S, so the latter.
There's probably a guy standing with his feet on the North Carolina and Georgia border, he's above and below the 35th parallel but he's not either above or below it...
They've been saying that literally since the 60's?
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand they're still wrong.
Homer, everywhere's gonna be a hellhole if you only focus on the pimps and the chuds.