this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
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https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 47 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

So does Iran hit Channel 14 (Israeli Fox News/OANN equivalent) in response?

[–] aanes_appreciator@hexbear.net 30 points 2 months ago

Please. PLEASE.

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 23 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Nah they are an irrelevant target. They should instead continue to focus on airbases

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 17 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Don't think Iran is focusing on counterforce targets like airbases, they're going for countervalue targets like energy infrastructure and population centres.

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 19 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

They hit Nevatim airbase several times yesterday. They are also hitting air defenses.

They better focus on destroying jets if they want to go for an attrition slugfest. Going straight for countervalue without neutralizing Israeli offense would indicate to me Iranians still are not serious about fighting a protracted war and think they can get out of it with tit-for-tat posturing

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 13 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

If they want to actually limit Israel's attacks, they should be aiming for the refueling tankers and energy infrastructure. A lot the fighters are in hardened hangers. The tankers are just on the tarmac and the refineries and storage tanks aren't protected. If they can't get the jets within range (or even off the ground) they are just billion dollar statues.

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 9 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Nah because America will indefinitely provide tankers, refueling and free energy and jet fuel.

They however, cannot as easily provide more jets without becoming directly involved

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 8 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

America can't provide jetfeul on the ground through in-flight refueling, which is why I said they also need to target the refineries and storage tanks. Same with the import terminals. If the jets don't have the feul to get off the ground, they functionally don't exist. Yes, it's great if Iran can destroy the jets, but the energy infrastructure necessary to get them off the ground is significantly more centralized and less protected. The most difficult of those targets to compromise would probably be the fuel farms at Nevatim, which are likely more protected than normal fuel farms.

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 8 points 2 months ago (1 children)

What is stopping America from providing jet fuel on the ground? Are Iranians going to hit American naval assets?

[–] mkultrawide@hexbear.net 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

US refueling of Nevatim would likely come through tanker or cargo aircraft like the KC-10 or C-5, buts it's a huge and expensive operation to be constantly airlifting jetfeul to Israel should their refinery capacity go down, and their ability to run at full operational capacity would likely be limited.

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 5 points 2 months ago

I'm sure Erdogan will provide some

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 8 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

That video of an "air defence site in the Negev" being hit was actually an air defence battery misfiring and hitting the ground, as shown in the full video. Other videos show hits near David's Sling point defence systems, but I haven't seen direct hits on the launchers, some of them even keep firing after missiles hit nearby.

Iranian missiles don't have counterforce capabilities, I did multiple posts on that after Operation True Promise II. I can try find them if you're interested. The accuracy is just not there. This is why they are going for countervalue targets now, to try inflict maximum damage. There's only one missile Iran has with both the range to hit Israel and potential counterforce capabilities, the Qassem Basir unveiled a month ago or so.

Good article on this analysing Iranian ballistic missile accuracy on the strike on Nevatim Airbase, I think I've posted it before or parts of it. From October last year

I highly recommend reading the linked article from October last year. The conclusion is where we are now

Israeli conventional and nuclear forces aren’t in existential danger of Iranian missile strikes unless Iran dramatically increases the scale of attacks against target complexes. Iran may be able to destroy major Israeli ground army bases and major administrative complexes if they are sufficiently tightly packed, but this will likely not sufficiently degrade Israel’s strike capabilities against Iran. This doesn’t mean Iran won’t be able to do significant damage and kill lots of people. Their long-range missiles are simply too inaccurate to match the sort of precision strikes [by Israel against Iran] we saw on October 25th. This suggests – as I think we’ve already seen recently – that there are hard limits on the deterrence benefits of Iranian missile forces. If you can only credibly threaten cities, then you can’t threaten targets that you could hit at lower rungs of the escalation ladder. This means you aren’t really able to effectively deter low level tit-for-tat conflicts like the one Israel and Iran are currently embroiled in. The result is that Iran and Israel may be stuck in a small stability-instability paradox, as Israel is clearly not willing to use nuclear weapons to respond to or deter Iranian missile strikes, and Iranian missile strikes are only really going to be effective at targets you attack at very high levels of escalation and thus are not capable at deterring Israel. This suggests that Israel and Iran trading missiles is going to be a long running problem going forward. Iran getting the bomb is really only going to make this problem worse, as Iran having a dedicated nuclear force would likely lower the number of missiles they need to keep in reserve for escalation, which means more conventional missiles to throw at Israel.

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 6 points 2 months ago

That video of an "air defence site in the Negev" being hit was actually an air defence battery misfiring and hitting the ground, as shown in the full video.

That's not what I was referring to. Negev took multiple direct ballistic hits from Iran.