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I have a buddy who is a virologist. He sends me shit all the time about bird flu. The gain of function tests on it is wild. Also, note that we have seen this shit coming since 2012
Published in: Science
Summary: Demonstrated that a small number of mutations could allow H5N1 to spread via respiratory droplets in ferrets.
Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1213362
Published in: Science (companion to Fouchier’s work)
Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22723413/
Published in: Nature
Summary: Kawaoka’s lab showed that reassortment of H5N1 with pandemic H1N1 genes could enable airborne spread in ferrets.
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10831
Published in: Science
Summary: Chinese researchers found that hybrid viruses combining H5N1 with H1N1 pandemic genes could spread between mammals.
Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1243362
Summary: Initially recommended redacting details of GoF studies due to bioterrorism concerns, later reversed.
Link: https://osp.od.nih.gov/biotechnology/nsabb-reports/
2012? Bird flu been warned about since 2005 at least in my memory
The first case was in 1959 in Scotland. The first human case was in 1996 or 1997 in China. Then around 2002, there was an outbreak in SE Asia that caused alarm then in 2005 it spread by wild birds into Europe and triggered a big WHO warning. The first gain of function tests was in 2011 and 2012. My comment was about the gain of function tests. I probably could have worded it better
What is the point of gain of function research? Sounds unwise to devote resources to making deadly diseases deadlier.
I think the idea is that the diseases are likely to become deadlier whether we do research or not, but by experimenting we are able to get ahead of it.
That makes sense. As you might guess, I am not a scientist
We don't "improve" diseases to make them deadilier and then just release them. The point of gain of function research essentially boils down to "How quickly can this disease become a serious issue and what do we expect that to look like?" with covid, thanks to gain of function research we knew it would quickly mutate and decrease in severity and we could significantly reduce harm by slowing the spread until it got to the point it's at today.
Makes sense! Thank you for taking the time to summarize
I have to say it again, I am not a virologist. I am just a middle-aged peckerwood from South Texas so please don't take anything I say on the subject of H5N1 as fact. It's just my understanding of how things work in a field I have very little connection to lol.
Gain of function tests are very controversial. IIRC there were a few SARS-CoV-1 leaks in Asia from GoF tests in 2004 or 05. People use those to argue against them. It can also be argued that GoF tests help us map out what mutations we should be watching for so there will be faster responses when they eventually occur. It can also help to advance vaccine research.
When they are done they destroy the mutated viruses or store nonviable samples in secured labs. The security and precautions, for the most part, keep it safe. Or so we are told lol
In the big picture GoF tests are a drop, what should scare the dick off you is reassortment. That happens on its own in the wild. The hits include H2N2, H3N2, H1N1, and H9N2. IIRC H9N2 is a top donor for internal genes and making it a superstar in the reassortments of all sorts of avian flu.
Good luck
Sounds like I'll need it! Good luck to you too!
That would be bad, as current vaccines against avian flu in humans tent to work on the "H5" part...