That’s a more difficult one as I don’t know what’s happening at all the state levels. I suspect there was already election tampering in the last election, and I believe that will be even easier now. There is also the factor of, as you said, more stringent laws regarding voting that will push out some people (and many more POCs will be disenfranchised than ever before), but I don’t know how many people that will affect. Then there’s the looming possibility that Trump will effectively stop elections by invoking martial law or something similar, because of things like mass demonstrations (I am feeling a bit more hopeful that this will happen, but not betting on it).

Overall I’m not confident enough that I understand all the facts to give a real percentage chance, and I think it also depends on how much the administration believes an election can harm them. What do you think?

[–] jsomae@lemmy.ml 2 points 5 days ago

I would imagine that free elections will be the last straw for most americans. I don't think Trump would risk everything on the midterms. 5% chance the midterms are rigged.