this post was submitted on 31 Mar 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from March 31st to April 6th, 2025 - Magnitude 7.7 Earthquake Hits Mandalay
(hexbear.net)
Image of destruction in Mandalay, Myanmar, from Al Jazeera.
As if the ongoing civil war wasn't enough, Myanmar has now been struck by a very powerful earthquake, resulting in 2000 deaths and thousands more injured as of the time of writing. Estimates are that the death toll could reach 10,000. Infrastructure like roads and bridges are damaged, and the hospitals are overwhelmed. The earthquake struck during Eid prayers, resulting in even higher casualties as several mosques collapsed. 20 million people already required humanitarian assistance in Myanmar, and now the situation there will be even worse. International rescue teams have rushed into the country, and aid is being raised, though with USAID experiencing the... changes that it is, the United States will be of even more limited help than usual. So far, China has sent $14 million, while USAID has supplied $2 million. In Thailand, the death toll seems considerably lower, though there has still been significant damage; a skyscraper under construction collapsed in Bangkok.
Myanmar is located very close to the boundary between the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates. In particular, the country is divided in two by the north-south oriented Sagaing fault. This fault is typically strike-slip; that is, each side of the fault moves horizontally past each other. The earthquake's depth was 10 kilometers, which is pretty shallow, and its proximity to the surface amplified the felt force of the earthquake. Additionally, the soft soil in this region tends to further amplify seismic waves through a process called liquefaction. Combine all this with the lackluster building codes due to many years of impoverishment and civil wars, and this explains why the death toll, and the expense to the country in general to repair damage, will probably be extremely high.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Would there be a scenario where the US encourages the Saudi-backed Yemeni regime into restarting its war against North Yemen in return for direct military support?
North Yemen does have functional air defences, but they are wisely kept covered over for most US bombing missions where they'd be ineffective and vulnerable to SEAD. The USA could conceivably suppress their air defences in the long term to make A-10s viable.
Yemen managed to shoot down one MQ-9 Reaper drone yesterday even under the current SEAD campaign, so I can't see A-10s flying Close Air Support (CAS) missions over Yemen in the current state. They could launch glide bombs like the GBU-39, but that would be quite inefficient. Slow and low flying aircraft like the A-10 aren't just vulnerable to traditional air defence systems, but also anti air loitering munitions like Missile-358/359, and MANPADs. The US air campaign is currently one of minimal risk, with their aircraft carrier remaining out of Anti Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) most of the time, and the use of a large number of stand-off weapons fitted to F/A-18s, including the AGM-154 JSOW glide bomb/cluster bomb (130km range), AGM-84K SLAM-ER ATA cruise missiles (270km range), and GBU-53/B StormBreaker glide bombs (110km range against stationary targets, 75km range against moving targets). JDAMs have also been used, including 2000lb GBU-31 JDAM which require flying deep into Yemen and over/close to the target, but there has still been a large use of stand-off weaponry in line with a minimum risk doctrine.
The current SEAD campaign by the EA-18G Growlers has been quite effective, no F/A-18 losses, and one MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down over 18 days, will go down under acceptable losses. But there would need to be a lot more of that before manned CAS aircraft like the A-10 fly over Yemen. You are correct that Ansarallah's air defences could be suppressed over the long term to allow for A-10 missions, but we aren't there yet. Which is why I think the A-10s are deployed more in an Iranian and Iraqi context now.
With the use of APKWS laser guided rockets being a capability now, the A-10 is an attractive platform there. One A-10 with two 19 shot rocket pods could carry 38 guided rockets, with room for Maverick missiles and laser guided GBU-39s for moving targets on other hardpoints. 4 GBU-39s take up one hardpoint. APKWS would be great for taking out Iranian naval and aerial drones, and even small fastboats. The A-10s 30mm Gatling gun can also be used for that. Larger missiles and bombs for bigger fastboats and operations in Iraq. Basically, I can see the A-10 being reinvented in an anti drone and combat patrol aircraft as it becomes increasingly obsolete in the CAS role. The powerful Gatling gun and large amount of cheap laser guided rockets make it quite efficient in that regard.
There is risk of the Saudis and UAE mobilising the opposition, but that's more of a medium term risk than a short term one in Yemen.