this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2025
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I don't remember all the details but they're in a lower tier of LEO that requires frequent boosting to maintain, so chances are yes, but it'll still fuck up telecommunications and satellite launches for a few years before it all comes down.
Any low-orbit kessler syndrome should be self-limiting for these reasons, without regular boosting Starlink sats will de-orbit in less than 5 years and that number drops precipitously when the sats are broken up into fragments with higher surface area to weight ratios.
While it probalbly wouldn't go full Kessler, remember that high velocity impacts can create showers of debris, of ~~which some will be boosted to higher orbits from the new velocity gained from the impactor.~~
(nm won't be a new stable orbit it will just be highly elipitcal and still interface with the atmosphere. there would have to be a second impact at apogee to actually boost the orbit)
Ideal anti-sat weapon would boost itself up to rendezvous and dock with the starlink sat, then deorbit it with a one use solid booster. Could use grapplers or something cool like that.
Second best would be an unmanned vehicle with a directed energy weapon on it. Cause spalling which could deorbit or just damage the panels or communications.
An orbit will always pass through the altitude of last impulse.
Yeah, impacts might throw debris into more steeply elliptical orbits but unless another impact at apogee gives the debris more momentum then the average level of the orbit would remain the same.
you're right i completely forgot you have to circularize to actually create a new higher orbit it was way too late at night when i realized that
don't tell the other old timers on the kerbal space program forums i made this mistake
[Jeb saluting while grinning madly]
To add to this, all of these micro-satellites are deployed in the upper atmosphere and thus have some drag applied. Their orbits naturally decay after several years and they burn up. That is why there aren't as many regulations for their deployment compared to higher orbits. They don't even boost them, opting to launch new replacements for those that burned up, which means even fewer regulations because they don't have explosive propellant.
A successful attack would only need to apply some additional drag that would effectively cause the orbit to decay much faster.