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this post was submitted on 31 Oct 2024
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1/6 will be different if Trump loses because he won't be allowed to have a gathering in D.C. That shit will be shut down faster than you can blink.
Even if Trump WINS, he still won't be allowed a gathering until the inauguration on 1/20.
Also, the scale of protest and organizing and protest in 2020 was orders of magnitude greater than right now. Trump may have increased the aggrieved class in this country, but he hasn't expanded their on the ground organizing. The fact that the right simply isn't nearly as organized (on the ground; I'll cede they may be more organized politically) makes this a very very different threat environment.
J6 didn't emerge out of nothing. They had been organizing MANY right wing events in the run-up to J6 to get MAGA trained up and activated to show up for that kind of event, for literally months before it happened. That has not happened so far, and there really isn't time to get that kind of groundswell activated.
The "will be wild!" tweet was, what? 12/19?
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/13/1111341161/how-trumps-will-be-wild-tweet-drew-rioters-to-the-capitol-on-jan-6
I think your point is that it only took a few weeks to get the participants in J6 to arrive?
Yeah, what you are missing are the literal months of right wing protests at the scales of 20k, 50k+ scale, along with the hundreds of other events happening nationally in support of the MAGA movement. Go find any rosecityantifa member who was on the ground in 2020 and see what they have to say in terms of the scale of rw organizing versus now. Trump's tweet acted on a movement ,on the ground that was material, and very very real (and well funded). That movement simply isn't as present today as it was in 2020. There isn't nearly the surface area for a tweet like to act upon.
Also, the tenor of commentary is different than it was this time in 2020. A lot more “someone should do something” and a lot less “I’m going to do something.”
This is true, but what I'm saying Trump's call to action was only a couple of weeks before hand.
TBH, I thought it was a lot farther back than that... Felt like they had MONTHS to prep.
They absolutely had been. Which is what I've been saying. There had been MANY dry runs organized by the same people who organized J6. BLM and associated orgs had been countering them in DC and elsewhere, quite effectively I might add. However, after November 5th, all of the wind got sucked out of all organizing efforts nationally. Biden getting into office pretty much killed the BLM movement, because frankly, people were fucking exhausted. Going into later September, there was the "Patriot Prayer" event, and a few others I can't recall. But prior to November, DC would have easily been able to muster 2k, 5k, 10k people to come out and counter protest any right wing bullshit. That all died after election day. There were two more I can recall in November (one pretty late? 28th maybe?). The people behind the scenes organizing this event had prepped the individual participants well for J6, in that they had significant exposure to conditions in these kinds of events. By late November 2020, the counter protesters were able to muster maybe 500-600 people max, to counter approximately 20k marching from freedom plaza to the supreme court. In that event the cops attempted a kettle and the counter-protest organizers made the call to pull the plug before they got boxed in on 3 sides by white nationalists (with the support of DC police).
MAGA simply isn't remotely as organized or practiced on the ground like they were in 2020. Groups like the Proud Boys, Bougaluo, Patriot Front, they can't operate without a significant crowd to merge with and use as shield/ plausible deniability. And while surely, their ranks have grown, none of these orgs are going to be able to get 5k, let along the 50k levels that were present for the attempted coup on J6.
2024 is an entirely different threat environment.