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this post was submitted on 25 Oct 2024
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Texas would be blue if it wasnt gerrymandered to hell. I think California is the same, would be red if it wasn’t for gerrymandering.
Note: Gerrymandering doesn't impact state wide races like senate and presidential. Only district based things like house seats
California is far more blue than texas is red. California votes around D+20 statewide, Texas is more like R+5 ish
Texas also has the most effective voter suppression and disenfranchisement in the country. It can be very difficult to vote in the blue cities.
Note- yes it does.
If you feel your vote for local offices doesn't count (and indeed a lot of races are uncontested) then you're less likely to vote at all.
So technically you're right but in practice I would argue gerrymandering has a huge impact on statewide offices.
That really depends on what office and presidential vs non-presidential election years.
Small aside- Some states split their electoral votes so it would matter there (Nebraska and Maine)
California voted for Biden almost 2 to 1 in 2020, a margin of over 5 million votes. There is no amount of gerrymandering (or un-gerrymandering) that would make California red.
Texas, on the other hand, went for Trump by 600,000 votes (out of 11 million). Solid blue is definitely not in the realm of possibility, but it could swing blue by a small margin.
I mean... California has had quite a few Republican governors before, mostly moderate. But this current Republican party is not the Republican party. I don't know what this is. It's chaos. It's stupid.
The current Republican party is just a party that has been taken over by the monster they curated for decades. The party of Reagan and the Bushes was mostly run by business interests. But to have a chance of winning, they pandered heavily to the religious zealots and the conspiracy nuts. For decades, the businessmen told the crazies that various nebulous evil forces were out to take everything they loved away from them. They used racial resentment, anti-LGBT bigotry, hatred of immigrants, etc. to pander to the crazies. The businessmen promised the crazies that they would punish the evildoers and keep the crazies safe. Well, eventually, the crazies came to realize that the businessmen never really seemed to live up to their promises. They never engaged in the mass brutal expulsion of those filthy immigrants. They never criminalized the queers and locked them in jail. They never actually banned abortion. The businessmen cultured, encouraged, and fed the insanity of the crazies, but they only ever wanted to just string them along. Doing all of the things the crazies wanted was bad for business after all.
Well, eventually the crazies got tired of waiting, and they took over the party. That is what Trumpism is. It's the monster the Republican leaders have been feeding for decades finally breaking loose and taking over the whole party. For decades, Republican leaders have been running on the same kind of hatred that fascist parties use, but without any intention of actually going full fascist themselves. But if you stoke up enough fascist hatred, if you make that kind of bile acceptable in the body politic...Eventually an actual fascist will come along to give the crazies what they want.
Like it or not, the Republican party of today IS the party of the past few decades. It is simply the party actually embracing its core message and carrying it to its logical conclusions.
The current republican party is just the nazi party with a GOP flag.
Gerrymandering wouldn’t change the outcome of a federal/presidential election. It’s a popular vote at the state level.
Their congressional races would be different.
That’s true, but the claim that California would be red without gerrymandering doesn’t hold up. They have 52 reps, 40-12 currently. If they were evenly apportioned based on the popular vote in 2020 it would be around 35-17. Definitely a difference, but not a massive one.
California is probably one of the least gerrymandered states. In 2008 there was an initiative to form a non-partisan redistricting commission to draw districts. All federal and state districts have been set using this process for more than 10 years.
California also has an open primary system where all candidates run against each other in a combined primary vote regardless of party affiliation (except president and some local offices). The top 2 from the primary advance to the general election. So, the general election could feature 2 democrats or 2 republicans.
Additionally, following the pandemic, California moved to automatically mailing a ballot to every active registered voter. They also have automatic voter registration at the DMV.
Altogether, it would be unfair to compare California to Texas or any other red state, all of whom actively gerrymander and work to suppress voter participation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Citizens_Redistricting_Commission https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/primary-elections-california https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-27/california-universal-voting-by-mail-becomes-permanent