Image is a frame taken from this video of Iranian missiles raining down on Israel without interception due to a weak and depleted air defense system after a year of war and genocide.
Mao, 1956:
Now U.S. imperialism is quite powerful, but in reality it isn't. It is very weak politically because it is divorced from the masses of the people and is disliked by everybody and by the American people too. In appearance it is very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of, it is a paper tiger. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable to withstand the wind and the rain. I believe the United States is nothing but a paper tiger.
When we say U.S. imperialism is a paper tiger, we are speaking in terms of strategy. Regarding it as a whole, we must despise it. But regarding each part, we must take it seriously. It has claws and fangs. We have to destroy it piecemeal. For instance, if it has ten fangs, knock off one the first time, and there will be nine left, knock off another, and there will be eight left. When all the fangs are gone, it will still have claws. If we deal with it step by step and in earnest, we will certainly succeed in the end.
Strategically, we must utterly despise U.S. imperialism. Tactically, we must take it seriously. In struggling against it, we must take each battle, each encounter, seriously. At present, the United States is powerful, but when looked at in a broader perspective, as a whole and from a long-term viewpoint, it has no popular support, its policies are disliked by the people, because it oppresses and exploits them. For this reason, the tiger is doomed. Therefore, it is nothing to be afraid of and can be despised. But today the United States still has strength, turning out more than 100 million tons of steel a year and hitting out everywhere. That is why we must continue to wage struggles against it, fight it with all our might and wrest one position after another from it. And that takes time.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Looks like Russia about to be discarded by China like a used toy. I have already warned of this since earlier in the year when signs begin to emerge, and recent indications are all pointing toward the same direction.
Let’s see what this article from a Chinese academic in Australia has to say:
Why China now wants to put some limits on its ‘no limits’ friendship with Russia
Quoting a few banger paragraphs here:
lol Putin must be sad.
Putin, after being rejected by Europe, sought to pursue a relationship with China only to be rejected again.
lmao
It is absurd to think that Russia could ever replace the West as the main economic partner for China without any kind of ideological commitment. As long as China wants to remain a global net exporter country instead of a domestic consumption oriented economy, it is never going to give up the American and European consumer markets. That means Russia will have to be sacrificed at some point.
Yes, you heard that right. Russia wants to destroy the current system and build a new one. China wants to transform the current neoliberal system by taking a more prominent place in it lol.
lol yes it is the relationship with the West that is constructive. Russia is just a spare tire.
I guess relying on the West is a much safer option for China then.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the coup against liberals over the past two years has failed. They really have made a come back. Chinese banks succumbing to US secondary sanctions on Russia was alarming. The recent monetary easing policy that closely followed the US Federal Reserve rate cut has all but confirmed this.
The same Shanghai libs who screwed up Zero Covid so bad that the entire country had to give up on the policy that had worked so well for nearly 3 years, are now begging the central leadership to save the stock and property markets and mend relationships with Western capital.
Just like Ukraine is about to be discarded by the US, Russia too will soon experience the same fate of being discarded by China. Going to be interesting to see how the BRICS summit goes next week.
As for the rest of the comment this seems like half baked Pekingology to me. Psychoanalysing Xi's tone and word choice. Finding some lib professors and analysts from Shanghai saying their own shit and doing the "they werent cencored by the ever cencoring no freeze peach 1984 CCP so that indicates a change in attitude state wide". Like, there are probably hundreds of thousands of west loving libs both in the CPC and in chinese univercities and commentators, there are thousands of talks, forums and articles every week across China and China always had reasonable tolerance for these people saying their minds no matter the actual shifts and trends in domestic and foreign policy. We all know these things. Gathering 5, 10 or even 50 quotes from them to make any point isnt too hard. Im 100% sure they could have written the same article last year, and the year before. Hell im sure someone else did.
Weird for someone as knowledgable as you to continue posting low quality stuff like this along with "ohhhh its so over" commentary. On your 4th account in 5 months no less
Whenever I see a ridiculously doomer comment in this thread, I immediately know it's a xiaohongshu post.
The whole point is to show how ridiculous the Chinese libs are, including the thought that Russia is going to lose in Ukraine.
If you have been following closely the events for the past 2-3 years, you cannot not notice that the recent policies are all lib brained in stark contrast to the purge of the liberals back in 2022-early 2023 when China seemed to want to take on a global leadership role in establishing an alternative bloc to US imperialism. Now China seems content to keep the dollar dominant as long as they don’t have to suffer for it (can’t say the same for the rest of the world though, that’s the point).
We’re now approaching the end of 2024 and it’s clear to me that the libs are back in charge. I honestly think that ending Zero Covid in early 2023 marked the first victory turn for the liberal faction and many things that followed since then have their fingerprints all over the place.
I’m simply waking up earlier than the others here, but soon enough everyone will have to wake up from the same dream.
Tbh, this sentiment about the libs being back in charge after a brief resurgence of Marxist seems like wishful thinking about China in the first place.
People can reasonably disagree on the extent to which China is committed to forming an alternative bloc to US imperialism. But it is ridiculous to make a conclusion either way based on a few years. Shit like that doesn't happen in just a few years. It takes (at minimum) decades of carefull strategic maneuvering and risk taking. It's not something you announce and then you just got to do it.
It's like people being sad about whatever BRICS summit not announcing an immediate alternative to the dollar: you basically played yourself by getting excited and then disappointed over an unrealistic wish.
I would take anything that an Australian "China expert" says with a massive grain of salt, even if they are ethnically Chinese. Our media is constantly blasting China and accusing China of every bad thing under the sun. We just can't handle the idea that China doesn't really need us, but we really, really need China, so our media projects onto them, and there are a lot of liberal Chinese-Australians who love pushing white supremacist ideas as "one of the good ones."
China is definitely trying to move away from an export driven economy to a domestic consumption one. Soon (idk how long) they will have a mostly self reliant economy, and when that time comes the west is kinda fucked imo
Look at this chart, they will probably be producing half the world's goods by 2035
I think the west knows that clock is ticking and idk about 2027 like someone else said but definitely by 2035 they will try to do something extreme.
The west has known this for decades and still let their manufacturing capabilities diminish (are they stupid?)
Here's more if anyone wants to see them
Those with power in the West have a bizarre, almost religious relationship with capitalism and western supremacy. Half the time they just assume their "natural superiority" will get them on top somehow.
What hubris, racism, and an unplanned economy does to a mofo
To be fair the next step after internal consumption is building markets in central Asia to find a sweet spot for a bunch of things, and to do that they need to let Russia lose its grip on places like Kazakhstan.
Yeah lets all read what a teaching assistant from a university in Sydney australia thinks about geopolitics based on his analysis of hand shakes and body language.
The "article" is wishful thinking. It is full of unfounded assertions that ignores basic facts. Worst of all it assumes that China doesn't see USA for what they are. Just read the transcripts China put out of the last few meetings of high ranking us and Chinese officials. "usa says one thing and does another" they all say this over and over. Xi said "The two sides should honor their commitments to each other with action," to biden over the phone.
The guy who wrote this is a clown in a land of "China Understanders"
This article is written from the perspective that the US is not actively planning to start a war with China in 2027.
When you put that in the equation you can't possibly make statements like "balance its relationships with both Russia and the West". China is not doing that, they are not so naive.
There is not going to be a conventional war with China. The US military plus all its allies simply do not have the military capacity to do so. The military escalations from the US should be seen as part of its strategy to reshape the global geopolitical landscape to the image that it wants.
The article literally quoted a lib (and there are many others I assure you) who think Russia will lose in Ukraine lol. These are the kind of people we’re dealing with.
The US navy is openly planning war under the operation name "Project 33" https://www.navy.mil/Portals/1/CNO/NAVPLAN2024/Files/CNO_NAVPLAN_2024_50Sat.pdf
Yes, but it’s not going to happen. You have to learn to read the intentions of the US imperialist strategy here.
Just like how a lot of people mistook Biden’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar panels as indication of US wanting to protect its own industries and compete with China on green technology, when the actual intention was to scare the Chinese libs into opening up their capital markets. This is already happening, and the Chinese libs fell for it hook, line and sinker. The US empire is never going to re-industrialize, it’s dominance and exploitation on the Global South until the end.
Similarly, there is no way that the US can defeat China or Russia in a conventional war. This is why they are sending in outdated equipments to Ukraine for them to be blown up. None of that was a serious attempt at fighting Russia, but it was good for the US economy because of how GDP is calculated (which affects the strength of its currency) and how capital can flow into the defense industry every time a piece of military equipment is blown up.
The battle line between US and China is going to be fought on the financial front, and if the US cannot win this fight, escalates into a hot war. That can only mean a nuclear war. This is the only shot the US can temporarily get out of its predicament before crumbling under the weights of its own contradictions.
Actually, one more thing.
What is your basis for the claim that that was untrue, especially considering that NATO's engineers did seem to conclude that the PRC would have significantly hurt their manufacturers if not stopped in this manner? On what basis do you conclude that the tariffs do not help NATO's domestic manufacturers?
Wasn't the further opening up the capital markets directive published in early April with Biden's tariffs coming in May?
(Not that this impacts your argument, if I remember the sequence correctly - continuing on opening up after the slap in the face from the US still adds weight to your point)
Do I have news for you
Holy shit America. You've done nothing but lose wars against tiny countries for the last few decades and you still think you can take on a Superpower? During an economic crash? While army recruitment is at an all time low?! While you're funding multiple proxy wars?!?!
How can one country be so dumb?!
This reads like an australian farming statements to create an alternate reality. Of course there's an academic in China who's predicting a Russian loss in Ukraine. How many academics are there in China? Some of them are bound to be insanely ill informed. That to me is emblematic of how useful the article is.
'Chinese officials clarified that Beijing does not seek a formal military alliance with Russia' means much less than it seems given that context. Russia is China's source of materiel. Russia is China's access to the north sea routes. It won't be discarded in any way, shape or form because it is an imperative to China's export oriented model.
Neither must Russia compete with the west as a consumer market. First because it can't, its a small population. Second because the west is closing itself off. Not the other way around. China's bet there is a medium term growth across the entire south.
Socialism with Shanghai liberal characteristics
Anyway it's a lot of rhetoric but I would wait for actual concrete signs of decline in the relationship
You know it's a suspicious statement when they don't say how much it's slowed by.
So trade has slowed by 2.6 percent, or about $3 billion out of $120 billion for the first six months of 2024.
At least you balance Russia doomerism with China doomerism
Why would you trust an Australian on anything? Australia is rabidly anti-Chinese and notirious for tarring China any chance it can get.
Signed: An Australian
Just want to show how out of touch these Chinese libs are (and easy to post since it’s in English). These people still think Russia will lose in Ukraine in the year 2024 lol.
As I have emphasized above, this are the kind of people we’re dealing with. The change in rhetoric and policy over the last year indicates that Xi’s purge of the liberals has most likely failed, and they’re back running the show now.
Can the lib contingent in China continue to thrive as the US ramps up its cold war against the entire nation though? It seems like as the Great Satan forces further conflict (economic if not militarily) with China, the conditions for the liberals in the CPC will become less and less hospitable while the Marxist elements will be proven both right and more prepared for the inevitability of increasing US imperial aggression. Also, if Xi was able to purge so many of them before, is there anything fundamentally different now that he won't be able to do it again?
These Chinese libs are gonna get China nuked, they literally dont understand what the west has become
Without Palestine and Russia taking up the US military industrial complex's bandwidth, china is next on the plate
DC wants to pull a Soviet Union collapse on your dumb occidentalist asses you western educated dipshits!
Shanghai (also the wealthiest city in China by GDP) is truly one of its kind.
They wanted to emulate “Western style lockdown” and screwed up the Zero Covid strategy so bad that after 2 years of success (only 2 (two) Covid deaths in China in 2021, and practically maskless), Omicron eventually broke through and spread across the entire country. China had to give up the Zero Covid policy by early 2023.
And don’t tell me that the city population is simply too dense, Omicron is too contagious and cannot be contained. Shenzhen (18 million people) and Shanghai (25 million people) both went into lockdowns at nearly the same time in January 2022, and yet Shenzhen somehow managed to do its job of containing the virus spread within a few weeks while Shanghai failed miserably.
Fun fact: The Chicago boys were specifically invited to turn Shanghai into China’s financial center. It is the most neoliberal of all places in China.
Another fun fact: perhaps the most famous of China’s economic policy advisors, Justin Lin Yifu, was the first Chinese PhD student to graduate from the Chicago school of economics, the protege of Theodore Schultz (co-founder of Chicago school with Milton Friedman). Many of today’s China’s economic policies have been shaped under his school of New Structural Economics.
So you shouldn’t be surprised at all that these libs practically worship neoliberalism. The recent monetary easing plan to open up the financial sector to foreign capital to “save” the stock and property markets has their fingerprints all over it.
I knew I smelled the Chicago boys somewhere.
I hope that you are wrong again regarding this stuff. Hopefully, the PRC will not be making the mistake of siding with NATO against its own allies again.
Man wtf they need to do another liberal purge
If China ditches Russia their geopolitical understanding is of a lower level than a person with zero academic political credentials like myself. Do they not see the game being played? This is some real 🤡 ass shit. The lines have been drawn. It's western and white countries (with countries other than germany, UK, France, Canada, Australia and New Zealand being the Expendables like Ukraine) versus China, Russia Iran more or less with the spoils being the right to pillage the rest of the globe.. China needs all the help they can get because the real target isn't Palestine, Iran or Russia. It's them. It's honestly mine boggling how little support they shown to the Middle East.
I want to remind you of the Sino-Soviet split and the PRC allying with the US against the USSR, Vietnam, socialist Afghanistan. Unfortunately, the PRC is not at all above having a shitty foreign policy in this regard.
Yeah they aren't and China is free to put themselves first again. But just like back then when they sold out the other communist countries theyre just letting the west give them enough rope to hang themselves with.
Claims like these - that the PRC was just playing some elaborate 10D chess and that this is all going just as planned - remain unsubstantiated. NATO is still the hegemonic power in the world that is capable of forcing the PRC to act in accordance with its wishes, such as by forcing the PRC to cut off Russia from its banks. It is not defeated yet, and all of the celebrations and assumptions that they have lost remain premature.
lmao i'd be coping this hard too if i also owned t1 property, worked at some private sector ngo mouthpiece and got a nice haircut from the a shares last week
I never really understood the BRICS being a dedollarisation organization comes from. There was never a concrete plan to do so and China still benefited from the US dollar as the world reserve.
Russia has the motivation to do so (aka diversify their foreign currencies reserves), but China doesn’t, unless they manage to find another market that can replace the US-Western market (challenge impossible)
There were serious discussions about it back in the summer of 2022. Russia first cancelled $21 billion of Africa’s debt in August 2022, then China followed suit with forgiving 23 loans for 17 African countries. I genuinely believed that we were on the right track toward de-dollarization, or at least China seemed to finally be willing to take on the leadership role.
We haven’t seen anything since.
could it be that the infrastructure was more complicated than anyone thought? like the technology, laws or smth idk