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China Is Winning. Now What?
(americanaffairsjournal.org)
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this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2024
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Assuming the bourgeoisie are behind (I'm not convinced they are yet), their options will be:
They will try for number 3, which will involve some extremely weak half-hearted attempt at reindustrialisation. This will fail because they will not have enough central control to carry it out under neoliberal ideology. They need to restore a Keynesian ideology to return to that under capital. They killed their own capability to carry out that kind of control when the Reagan/Thatcher years occurred.
I'm rather worried that we're inching ever closer to option 1.
We definitely are worryingly close to it. They still haven't really made up their minds. The MAD theory is being tested.
Provided we can avoid nuclear war they will first kick their legs and struggle in an attempt to prevent things happening but when that doesn't work they'll transition into managed decline and acceptance.
Indeed, my expectation that if we don't all die in a nuclear holocaust, then the US will circle the wagons and rule over a diminished empire.
My only hope that we will not see nuclear war is that they coward at heart that would like to live for eternity if possible. But there has been a worrying amount of articles pushing the idea that a nuclear war is winnable. I think that they will try a final sanction war with China at a minimum or try to use they pawns in the pacific to destroy China.