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this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2023
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If we're really learning from mistakes in Ukraine then Taiwan should be recognised as an independent country and admitted into a formal alliance. Not admitting Ukraine into NATO was the mistake we made there and it's being repeated in Taiwan.
Hey, I 100% support Ukraine and financial aid for them, but I feel like this conflict runs the risk of distorting history. Ukraine has a very corrupt recent past and admitting them before they clean up their own house might well have just been a different kind of mistake. Hopefully we can be formal allies some day.
I don't have an agenda here other than being kind to people who made decisions without the benefit of the hindsight we use to second guess them.
Sure I agree when it comes to admitting them to the EU. NATO is only a military defence alliance though. If they'd been in NATO this war would never have happened.
I’m wearing a St. Javelin tshirt as I write this, but NATO can’t have member countries with the levels of endemic corruption that have existed in Ukraine and are still being rooted out. Shit, Resnikov himself was seen to be only one step away from it in the past year.
What about Turkey?
It’s a great question. FWIW, I am not sure that Türkiye would be admitted today.
But the US is doing something called "stragetic ambiguity," where they neither ally with Taiwan nor ally with China. China has repeatedly stated that the day Taiwan declares independence is the day they attack. However, if the US ever feels confident enough to actually establish diplomatic relationships with Taiwan, maybe that's not a bad thing either.
Yeah indeed strategic ambiguity has been the approach they've taken so far. If they decided to they could change the approach though. I think it's unlikely China would carry out the threat if a formal alliance was actually announced since in that case they'd be starting a world war. I think it's more likely they'd express outrage, protest and perhaps fly some fighter jets over Taiwan, take some steps short of actual war. My worry is that if the situation remains ambiguous China might conclude that the security guarantees are not real and that US would not respond. Having strong credibility there is essential for maintaining peace I think, especially if the intention is to actually respond.
I think we should start calling these bluffs. Can't let countries bully the world forever. Stop helping north Korea, add tawain to nato. Give them the finger.
LOL China is a bully? Are you just ignorant of the last 200 years of history. Do you have any idea WHY the KMT managed to maintain a 40-year reign of terror on Taiwan? Why Hong Kong needed to be returned to China? Or why all Europeans were completely immune to Chinese law in living memory? Hint: it was because of a bully, and China was the victim.
Yep just straight up spell it with no mucking about. Put Taiwan, Japan, NZ, Australia, SK etc into NATO or its own equivalent and let the stakes be known. If you want WWIII, invade Taiwan. Or move on.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act
Yeah it would require congressional approval. But that's not beyond the realm of possibility as there is bipartisan support for Taiwan in the Congress.
I'm doubtful that it would trigger a major conflict. More likely China would express public outrage but not do anything about it. But it has to be done swiftly so they don't have time to react before it's in force.
LOL, so delusional. Taiwan becoming a formally recognized nuclear military base administered by the US would immediately trigger a war.
Nuclear base... Talk about hyperbole. Hope the weather is nice in Beijing this August.
Hyperbole? The entire US doctrine is nuclear first strike capability to eliminate MAD. Between the hypersonic missiles they said they wanted to place on Taiwan, the nuclear submarine, with warheads, that they recently docked in South Korea, the missile defense shields they have spent decades encircling Russia and China with, and deploying 60% of their entire navy into the Pacific Theater, exactly what hyperbole do you think there is here?
I don't really see how having a nuclear base in Taiwan eliminates MAD. Similarly having 60% of the navy in the Pacific. It seems to me these mostly work well in case of a conventional conflict.
Who is downvoting this comment? 7 bots at the time of my comment.