I see what you mean about believing that Israel is independent is not idealism in itself, but calling idealist is shorthand for the fact that such a view, at least the extreme version of Israel having some complete sovereignty from the US empire, entity doesn't seem to correspond with a meaningful analysis rooted in imperialism and how the US supports and props up Israel. Israel does have some degree of "independence" in that they are there own actors, but I'd say based off the US propping up Israel for its purposes, that the game theorist YouTube is making a severe error. And he isn't rooting his analysis in historical materialism, i.e. in an analysis of imperialism, capital accumulation, class power, and value flows. For him, Israel is a nation state hence it is on some independent footing as any other nation state. That is some form of idealism to me. Almost like a mystification of Israel as some independent entity because it is a nation state, instead of focusing on the interrelationships between Israel and the US, and how Israel is both a nation state and an extension of US empire. An analysis starting from material facts on the ground will lead to that vs one that treats Isreal as independent from the start.
But, I may be wrong about the details of this hill I'm standing on. So I won't die on it, but I think its a hill that's close to something worthwhile.
Also, an aside on the aside about math. I don't think math can escape materialism. I think most math people disagree with me on this, Platonism appears very common with mathematician. Even if the abstractions are "ideals" and dont exist in a one-to-one way, I dont see this as invalidating dialectical materialism. Ideas in math are abatractions that, like all abstractions, have their roots in the material world and its historical trajectoey. Every abstractions of ours come from this material world, but this isnt some crude materialist view that says that every abstractions has a direct one-to-one material version of it. But I dont believe even math is some pure idealism, even if it is analysis of abstract, ideal, structures.
But some abstractions are definitely harder to pin down to something real. Utility for example. Maybe it could be a proxy, like fitness in evolutionary systems, for something else more material or having a feedback relationship with something in the material world.
Dirty bombs? ISIS? Theocrats? Chaos? Sounds perfect for the empire!
Blowback is just another opportunity. Safety is not the goal.
Though in more serious talk, if you believe Ben Norton from Geopolitical Economy Report and the sources therein, the ultimate goal isn't Safety from nuclear war or dirty bombs. The goal is China. Fracturing Iran into weak states, where a few may be comprador western allies gets us one step closer to the goal of China. A goal that I dont think is viable, but a goal nonetheless.
And this is just my vibe here, but I dont think the architects of the apocalypse give a shit if some Americans die from a dirty bomb. If need be, a hundred American cities could be nuked to glass. Accumulation of their power and control is all that matters.