I wish Cuba had its own stickied megathread.
What's happening there is being overshadowed by everything else, but it's the only real play here for Trump&Co., as far as I can see.
The Gulf/Iran/oil issue will get sorted out. Things will go back to a relatively normal state there. Meanwhile, Cuba is - and always has been - at the mercy of the U.S. We know that Trump is into land grabs. Who's going to stop him from "stepping in" and taking control of Cuba? NATO won't help Cuba. Mexico? Brazil? Doubtful. Congress? (Nah, that last one is a joke, literally and figuratively.)
Fun fact, Japan's constitution limits its military force to defensive capabilities only. They get the lion's share (97%) of their military equipment from the US. Japan has, in recent years, worked towards revising the definition of "defense" to include more offensive weapons, and allocate more money to defense spending.
So, yeah, vassal - and a good customer, too.