MarmiteLover123

To be honest this is just turning into another partisan split. Democrats and CNN say the strike did nothing. Republicans in the administration and FOX say it was devastating.

Truth is much more complex, there's no way to know exactly what was damaged underground at this stage.

JDAM or SPICE 2000 in Tehran, June 15

Other angles of a JDAM or SPICE 2000 over Tehran

JDAM maximum range 24km. SPICE 2000 maximum range 60km.

660lbs is the maximum payload capacity of a Hermes 9000, the total weight of munitions it can carry, not the weight of the individual bombs. These mainly carry air launched SPIKE missiles.

This is not being done by drones or cruise missiles, or Israel's very limited stock of air launched ballistic missiles:

Videos and photos of a strike on an underground facility in Tehran

Strikes on the last day of the war on Tehran

Certainly possible. Although more could've also been moved into the facilities as well.

CNN damage leak was actually from the DIA in the US, Israeli sources are actually pretty confident, which is surprising.

With the reference to operational freedom, I think Israel is referring to the Mossad assets/commandos that blew up key bits of Iranian defence infrastructure and carried out assassinations using spike missiles and drones in the first hours of the war. Don't think this is in reference to the nuclear facility attacks.

Update on Fordow. Israel went back and bombed the entrances and exits, and access roads, effectively entombing the facility. Even if the 12 GBU-57 MOPs didn't do the damage, the facility is entombed when combined with Iran filling the other entrances and exits with soil. The US did similar at Isfahan with Tomahawk land attack missiles.

Israel will likely seek a ceasefire agreement that keeps these facilities entombed, permanently, especially in the case of Isfahan where the underground facilities were not directly attacked, just the entrances, exits, and above ground facilities. There have been two big indications from Israeli sources leaning in this direction. First, this from Barak David at Axios. I'll quote the key passage:

Two Israeli officials also claimed that intelligence shows Iran's stockpile of 60% and 20% enriched uranium is now buried beneath rubble at Isfahan and Fordow — and it's unclear whether Iran will be able to recover it in the near future.

Then this statement from the Israeli damage assessment, posted by Trump:

This achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.

Idk what China is open to giving them but assuming Iran acts with the desperation, commitment and urgency its position requires and ditch some of their delusions and offer and fasttrack some stuff in non military apsects im sure they can get some stuff.

They need to this. They need to push on all fronts. Emotional, logical, economical, geopolitical.

At least 6 months. The cost will be billions of US dollars, at minimum. Maybe China can cut a deal involving some local production and development, plenty of smart Iranian scientists motivated to defend the nation. Best time to do this was after the October Israeli attack last year when the flaws in the Iranian air defence network against air launched ballistic missiles were exposed, second best time is now. It will take time, but what's the alternative, Iran exists in a permanently weakened state, vulnerable to Israeli airstrikes? Either China steps up and Iran gets serious (fire reformists, fire corrupt officials and fire officials trying to cover up the damage) simultaneously, or that's the alternative.

It's a long shot, but it's the only option available now.

This is by far the most important thing Iran should be doing (outside of developing nukes, obviously).

In my opinion, it's more important than building a nuke.

S-400 is currently a better anti aircraft system, and better anti ballistic system when equipped with the kinetic interceptors (extremely important) than HQ-9. It's why China bought some. But China has systems like the HQ-19, a THAAD equivalent, which are much better than the S-500 which currently exists. That's a very important niche capability (endo exo atmospheric gap against ballistic missiles) where Russia is falling behind compared to China and the USA. Russia has the S-300V series of systems though for many decades (terminal intercept of ballistic targets with large area effect blast fragmentation warheads, 150kg), and China's equivalent, the HQ-29, photos have only emerged recently. So Russia is still better there, for now. Israeli use of the Arrow 2 shows that this class of terminal interceptors is still relevant, even in the age of kinetic interceptors. You just need a massive warhead, 150kg.

Also as Z poster said, Russia doesn't have any spare equipment currently, they're at war.

Given the urgent and urgent need for ground-based and air-based air defense, it is hoped that the authorities will make good use of the capacity created (according to some unofficial sources, a proposal from China) to fill these gaps.”

Dear god please. HQ-19, HQ-9s with kinetic interceptors, HQ-22, J-10C or JF-17 block 3, J-35s. They need it all and they need it now. HQ-19 and kinetic interceptors are important to defend against the long range Israeli air launched ballistic missiles, which took out Iranian over the horizon radars and S-300PMU-2 fire control radars. Ballistic missile defence is very important, otherwise the key anti aircraft systems become sitting ducks for the Israeli air launched ballistic missiles.

Thank the CIA for that. Obama leaked it publicly, then Iran was put into a position where they were forced to tell the IAEA about it.