Only inaccuracy I can spot is that Abu Mahdi and Qadr-380 are cruise missiles, not ballistic missiles. The rest is pretty accurate on the military terminology side. Reza's political commentary isn't great, but I mainly posted it for the military insights, which are pretty good.
MarmiteLover123
joined 2 years ago
Very large US military movements have been observed over the last 72 hours, with mainly large redeployments and airlifts from Osan Air Base in South Korea, to Isa Air Base in Bahrain. Over a dozen C-17 transport aircraft have made flights into Bahrain, along with a handful of C-5M transport aircraft, the largest aircraft in the US military. Ramstein in Germany has been used as an intermediary base. Osan is home to the USAF's 51st Fighter Wing, which operates A-10 close air support attack and control aircraft, and Block 40 F-16C/D multirole fighter aircraft. There has also been a redeployment of A-10 aircraft from the National Guard in the USA to the Middle East at this time, with 300 airmen making the trip. Osan is also home to the 35th Air Defense Artillery Brigade of the US Army, which operates the MIM-104 Patriot air defence system, and battery D of the THAAD Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) system.
So this airlift is suspected to be in support of the A-10 deployment, and transfering air defence systems to the region. The potential use of the air defence systems is obvious (combatting ballistic and cruise missiles launched from Iran), but the A-10s less so. Iranian air defence systems would shoot them down, and they are meant for close air support, not launching standoff weapons. I think the A-10s are being deployed to intimidate the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, they would be used against them in a potential conflict. A-10s can also be used to counter Iranian fastboats and slow flying drones if necessary.
Israeli PsyOps and propaganda are hyping these movements up as the "largest military action since WW2 is about to take place against Iran ". So I hope this post can provide clarity in the propaganda space.
If anyone wants an idea of how a potential conventional attack on Iran would look like, the twitter thread below by a suspected ex Iranian Air Force pilot provides a good breakdown. It's quite long and I'm not going to break it down myself now, so use translation software like Google translate, deepL, or even AI LLMs like ChatGPT or deepseek to to translate it. Also ignore any political commentary.
US airstrikes continue on Yemen for the 17th night in a row, targeting Kamaran Island.
Statement by the Yemeni Armed Forces at 21:20 UTC, 6 minutes time. Suspected to be about the downing of an MQ-9 Reaper drone. It would be first drone or aircraft shot down during the 17 days of conflict, if confirmed.
Confirmed, MQ-9 Reaper drone was shot down, the 16th drone shot down in total, and the first of the most recent phase of the conflict. English translation will follow shortly.
Lots more airstrikes on Saada Governorate.
Large explosions (from airstrikes) reported in the south of Sana'a Governorate, around the Amad tunnels and bunkers.
MQ-9 Reaper shot down, but no claim of targeting the E-2 Hawkeye AWACS aircraft. As suspected, that was always very unlikely.
The call of duty modern warfare and black ops games during the early 2010s and very late 2000s. It seemed like every second game, no matter the genre, tried to copy call of duty. The subculture around these games on early internet/YouTube was a thing.
It's not about having a job, it's about contributing to society. All cultures and societies have ways of ridiculing and attempting to discipline those who are viewed as not contributing adequately to society. The USA is a hyper capitalist country, so that manifests itself as ridiculing people who don't have a job (as that's how you should contribute to society under the US model). There's also a built-in assumption that those without a job are "leeching off" of someone who does, or government assistance. But to answer your question, in other cultures and countries you won't be ridiculed for not having a job necessarily as the main thing, but you would be insulted for say not having kids, not taking care of/respecting the elderly, not supporting your children adequately, etc. For instance, the idea of charging your kid rent or putting your parents in a old folks home would be seen as alien and insulting in a number of countries outside of the USA, and people who do that would be ridiculed. What is seen as most important for contributing to society is different depending on culture. For some it's contributing to family, for some it's contributing to the greater collective, for some, like the general American culture, it's contributing to the economy. Though of course there are exceptions, as there is for everything.
I don't think he'll be coming back to the USA for a while, he lives in Moscow now apparently. So we're already at that stage of the timeline where the esoteric figure lives in the ~~Soviet Union~~ Russia.
Highly unlikely, there's nothing in the Yemeni arsenal (or most countries arsenals) with the range to target a US Navy AEW/AWACS asset (in the E-2 Hawkeye) in the rear lines like that. These aircraft operate hundreds of kilometres away from the frontlines. This would have to be a world record breaking Surface to Air Missile kill, or thereabouts, to even be possible. For context, the current world record in combat is 217km with an S-300V4 system. Maybe Ansarallah could have tried to rig up a surface to surface anti radiation missile with the required range (like the Hormuz missile with 300km range) to try hit an aerial target and try home in on the emissions of the big radome on the E-2, but I doubt it would result in a hit. Given that US airstrikes were ongoing hours after this reported attack, I can't see this being realistic.
Also federation is back? Cool.
Here's some satellite imagery of both the strike on the Palmyra and T4 airbases. Yellow pins are airstrikes from the second wave, light blue from the first wave.
Runways, taxiways, aircraft hangars and parking, along with the entrance/exit gates and storage buildings were destroyed, so it's unusable for now. Turkey cannot fly in and use it in it's current state. But it can be repaired if the will to do so is there.
US airstrikes continue on Yemen for the 16th night in a row, with multiple airstrikes targeting Sana'a Governorate.
Quite a few more strikes reported in Sana'a Governorate.
Al-Mayadeen reports more strikes in Sana'a Governorate.
Lots of bad information circling around. The pictures of the "USS Harry Truman sinking" that are circulating on social media are six years old and of a different ship. Claims that the US Navy's E-2 Hawkeye AWACS aircraft has been shot down are also highly unlikely, nothing in Yemen's surface to air missile arsenal has the range to hit US assets in the rear like that, and with active SEAD operations going on from EA-18G Growlers, Ansarallah haven't shot down an MQ-9 Reaper drone over the past 16 days, yet alone a target as far away from the frontlines as an AWACS aircraft. They could try with some Jerry rigged anti radiation 'Hormuz' missiles to home in on the massive radome on the E-2, but such an attack is highly unlikely to succeed.
The Yemeni Armed Forces have announced two operations in two separate statements:
Cruise missile, naval and aerial drones launched at US Navy warships. No Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles. A Zulfiqar/Rezvan ballistic missile was also launched at Israel, a ballistic missile with a conventional ballistic flight path, no Palestine-2 missiles launched. Debris from the missile and an Israeli Arrow 3 interceptor landed in Israel.
Israeli news site N12 revealed that the US operated THAAD air defence system has intercepted 6 Yemeni missiles already. If anyone is wondering why this is, it's because Israel don't really have a terminal phase intercept system for MaRV (Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle) capable ballistic missiles. THAAD is the only system that fits the bill and can plug the gaps. Arrow 3 is a midcourse interception system, it does not intercept ballistic missiles in the terminal stage of flight. So if Yemeni ballistic missiles bypass Arrow 3, and they are MaRV capable missiles, Israeli air defence systems are not adequate. I'll explain below:
Arrow 2 has a maximum flight ceiling/altitude of 50km, and a range of 100km, and uses a fragmentation warhead, not a kinetic one. David's Sling has a longer range up to 300km and a kinetic warhead, but a flight ceiling of only 15km, allowing for only last second interceptions. These flight ceilings are all problems when intercepting MaRV capable missiles that can perform glide phases within the earth's atmosphere, gliding above or near the limit their flight ceilings in the terminal phase. A MaRV could perform two glide phases, first one above Arrow-2 and one above David's Sling. So THAAD is brought in to plug the gap. THAAD can engage targets at altitudes between 40-150km, and at ranges up to 200km. So MaRVs cannot glide above the engagement ceiling of THAAD. The way to defeat THAAD would be to perform an extremely long glide phase below 40km under the engagement envelope of THAAD, but that puts the MaRV firmly within the engagement envelope of Arrow-2. Arrow 2s minimum altitude is 8km, so gliding under that would put the MaRV firmly within the engagement envelope of David's Sling. Also, with thicker atmosphere/air at lower altitudes, long glide phases become increasingly difficult as drag increases.
There is IDF presence in Gaza, mainly in the south around Rafah and Khan Yunis, and in the north around Beit Lahia and Jabalia. And the Netzarim Corridor have been re occupied. So there are IDF troops in Gaza, even outside of the self declared "buffer zones". The most that has been reported is an attempted motar shelling of the IDF troops in terms of confronting them. (Update: the Al Quds Brigades, armed wing of the PIJ, has taken responsibility for that and an explosive device that damaged an Israeli bulldozer). Here's a decent map to get an idea of the current situation: IDF: Blue, Hamas: Orange, "buffer zones": green.
Welcome to the mind of the Iranian moderate. First they supported "the doctors" in the Masoud Pezeshkian administration for reform, but now they hate them for destroying the Iranian economy and general incompetence. But they still dislike the hardliners for stuff like the hijab laws and perceived hubris. Which leads to this.