Fuck AI

I just spent £200 on some memory so probably any day now.

the AI bubble is being driven by the authoritarian wet-dream of totalitarian panopticon secret-police state, not by consumer or biz: that is why Trump himself is pushing it sooo hard.

His new $55B national crematorium-network is going to require "convictions" of "crimes", in order to feed it, right?

The AI that his gov't is pushing will he able to convict everybody they want.

As for when the bubble will pop, it is the economic-bubble which will pop, and AI will be only a minor part of the 2nd Great Depression.

That popping will be when Trump finally overthrows the US Constitution, not before, it looks like..

Not before mid-Nov.

He needs to deregister enough Democrat voters, declare candidates to be terrorists, and whatever other shenanigans he's implimenting, to produce the "election" results he wants, https://zeteo.com/p/19-ways-trump-and-republicans-are provides 19 methods he's using, sorry paywalled, but Zeteo i trust to be doing actual-journalism ( and i don't need convincing that this is happening: normals do )

and then if the population balks at that, invoke the Insurrection Act on them,

and then he's won his dictatorial kingdom.

but the economic-bubble should finally pop, then.

So. maybe as early as Nov 17th, maybe as late as Christmas, but his genius strategem of highjacking the US for his personal kingdom, has no antidote/countermeasure, now.

And the economic making-believing won't need to continue once his 4th Reich regime is on, so it'll pop then.

Here is evidence of his 4th Reich design: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aBMJOAUMb5U Thom Hartmann's vid on the $55B national crematorium network that ICE now has ready for use.

oh, and the US Department of Finance tweeted a nazi medallion, which read on it "ein volk", "ein reich", "ein fuhrer", with their standing-on-cornet swastika ( as opposed to the Hindu, Buddhist, Jain, Hopi, and Navaho ones, which don't ) so they're sooo close to winning the confederate-nazi totalitarianism they want, that they don't need to hide it anymore.

Hegseth's nazi background, for his recent speech ( reported earlier today here on Lemmy.World ) is also evidence of this fact.

🙏

I think it is, right now; it’s just not a very fast pop, because everyone is very, very busy pretending it hasn’t actually popped, because a lot of people are making a lot of money from this shit.

This circular financing circus act could extend well into 2028, I'm afraid. There's always one more way to keep the numbers growing on paper and there's zero regulation, oversight or tranparency.

There are a lot of these bubbles that have no good reason to exist, but rich people who own most of the worlds wealth are dedicated to floating them, so I can’t ever know.

The Oracle data center that can’t get electricity but must be paid for might be the start of debt obligations collapsing. But it might also get dragged out long enough by Oracle’s legal team that it doesn’t, and they have unfathomable cash to keep that ball rolling.

I wish I knew.

The blockchain bubble has kinda burst. But not exactly in the way I would have predicted.

I say it's "burst" is because nobody's talking about it. (Mercifully.) It's not in everyone's face like it was.

I say "kinda" because Bitcoin's still worth like $80,000 USD per coin or something? (Ok, I'll check... holy shit it's more like $85,000.)

My prediction would have been that people would figure out Tether wasn't really backed 1-to-1 and then the value of Tether would go to zero, bringing the rest of the blockchain ecosystem to zero with it. (And I suppose it's possible that'll still happen. But that apparently wasn't necessary to bring down the hype.)

But also, the blockchain bubble is no longer the hot kid on the block because the AI bubble has taken its place. In a way (actually in more than one way) the AI bubble is just a continuation/pivot of the blockchain bubble. So, maybe it's even arguable that the the blockchain bubble hasn't yet popped, it just "changed color".

So, I'm reticent to make any predictions except that probably the burst will come when we least expect it and in a form different from what we might expect as well.

Ed Zitron at one time was predicting... I think it was before the end of 2027? But I think he's kindof changed his tune and stopped predicting any particular timeline for the collapse. (He kinda predicted that people would "wisen up", but he's admitted more recently that he was wrong to bet on people waking up and seeing what's really going on. Which kinda tracks if you think about how things went in The Big Short during the time when mortgage defaults were going up but the rate of the housing bonds was also going up.) David Gerard has more recently said "probably sometime next year". So maybe then?

There are also some signs of things weakening. The whole "Project Jupiter" thing with Oracle and the force majeure could be a harbinger (I hope).

I really want to believe the collapse is imminent, but unfortunately I don't think anyone really knows how imminent it is. I do believe it has to collapse at some point, but unfortunately, some historical bubbles have persisted for surprisingly long times. :\

That said, I watch Ed and Gerard and everyone else predicting an imminent collapse like it's crack. Because it makes me feel better about the state of the world. I freely admit it's absolute hopium.

Maybe you already know this and it's what you're discussing, but Michael Burry now thinks mid-2027.

Historically, these sorts of bubbles last approximately five years, but no one can say for sure. I am planning around 2027 being the year it pops because of this historical trend, going off a timeline based on ChatGPT being released in 2022.

Personally, I am going to evaluate my investments after the Christmas season and likely take profit on many and move them to cash or money markets. The markets have been schizophrenic for years and I expect after the mid-terms that Donald will put boots on the ground in Iran and make everything much worse economically. I might lose a small amount of profit in the short-term from this, but people need to remember that the numbers you're seeing in your accounts are not real until you actually take profit, and I'm find with losing out on a small amount of potential profit and being able to reinvest a large amount at post-crash prices.

Further, the sorts of tactics the Mag7 are using to keep the bubble inflated do not work interminably. At some point you have to actually make money, and their only options in the short-term are ads, which everyone fucking hates, or charging subs, which clearly most people don't want to pay for in order to use a chatbot when you can access one freely elsewhere, as evidenced by the fact that none of these fucking AI companies are profitable.

There are a lot of predictions going around, but to be fair, everyone is biased, because they either want to see it pop, or they want to see it succeed, and not be a bubble at all. Everyone who says it's going to last about five years because that's the average for bubbles is plain wrong because averages are sneaky, because the canal mania lasted way longer than that and had very different development than the other bubbles. or the .com bubble being a very short-lived one. Suffice to say averages are useless for this stuff, because it's not predictable, a round-trooping scam can keep going as long as there's fresh outside money going in. Because the USA are desperately trying to finance their shit spending with new bonds and by avoiding countries such as Japan, which have a lot of US bonds, selling them, it could pop tomorrow or in 5 years, who knows? It's not a simple y = x^2^. Also, the bears always have been quicker than the bulls, to call a pop.

What I'd like to say with that is, no one knows. We can see a lot of bad things happening in the economy right now, the fat bond spread, the markets which are still hooked on fossil fuels, having massive energy cost problems, the AI bubble being a round tripping scam, the safety mechanisms of indexes being deactivated to keep the bubble going, the private credit crisis, which again feeds into the bubble and the USA having already trouble with their economy way more than everyone else. We can see these signs, recognise that there is a problem, but we don't know when that problem will reach us.

My personal biases are that I come from the EU (the USA bring our #1 trading partner) and I called bullshit very early on on the AI bubble. Do with that what you will.

You're not the only one asking and many find there is no point in even trying to predict when. Plenty of traders want to bet on the eventual burst but as investors will tell you: the market stays irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

It’s not. This is many times over the “too big to fail limit”. There’s no regulation due to the US kleptocracy, and it’s tied to everything including 401k.

Asking whether the AI bubble will pop is similar to asking whether capitalism will stop centralising wealth to the top or somehow become reflective of the damage of the ecological environment.

The band will keep playing till the last chair goes under water.

Either right before, or during the US Christmas holiday. My guess bet is during.

I dont know when but I can guess how. Like with most companies in trouble it won't be the big money players that make it end, it will the the paper supplier, or the sandwich shop you owe very little to. The small debt that takes you to court will the first domino to fall

I check around every once in a while to see what people say (Im not a financial expert by any stretch of the imagination). And it always seems to be something around "it's about to burst", "it has started bursting",... and it's been like that for months now.

Who the fuck even knows anymore? One thing is for certain=> with everything that's going on there are going to be very few people that win. Shit's creeck ate our paddles.

If left alone, by the start of summer next year? I've thought that for a while but OpenAI and Anthropic were supposed to have gone public by now and have not. Whenever they do I think that really lights the fuse.

But I don't think the current US govt. will leave it alone and just let the bubble pop. They'll find some way to inflate trillions of dollars into existence to backfill the private equity / venture capital dollars that aren't there and keep the line going up for another year and a half.

Then they pull the plug on the rolling bailout Nov. 28 and let it all come down early '29, and tell everyone the collapse is the incoming Democratic president's fault- a stab in the back by America-hating woke socialists- and voting for a fascist supermajority in congress in 2030 is the only way to fix it.

See: https://www.wheresyoured.at/