askchapo

it's a species of , not quite the same.

the only strategic reason for Russia to strike west is if these territories are used (more openly) as launch pads for attacks on russian territory and troops. NATO preparing for Russian aggression outside Ukraine is essentially telegraphing that the final phase of Ukraine-War-Planning is to allow "Ukraine" to retaliate against Russian advances from the safety of NATO borders and air defences.

To be clear there's a million grain heap of insane Eurolibs that have convinced themselves Putler will do so just for 'fascism' and evil; but just because they are the loudest voice we should believe NATO generals when they say they're designing a legitimacy framework for WW3 on the continent. the only way they'll be arrested is defeat in other theaters depleting their capacity enough, or political changes in the west.

Annexation of Transnistria or Abkhazia is about the furthest extent possible. Neither Georgia nor Moldova is a NATO member.

I don't think anyone but perhaps particularly rabid Baltic fascists genuinely thinks there's any realistic chance of military occupation.

warm water port?

Considering how long and grindy the Ukraine war has been, I'd say they would probably have trouble directly attacking anyone that anybody cares about.

This is a really interesting question to me because it parallels the question of "how are you going to Defend The Revolution™?" Just in the framing of this question you've laid out how it should be approached.

No doubt, European liberals irrationally see themselves as under existential threat from an outside power that wants to crush them regardless of the expense or payoff.

Land connection to Kaliningrad Oblast?

Current NATO armies are such a shitshow that Russia would have a decent shot for military victory, but you can't just defeat geography and logistics so the invasion of entire Europe is not very feasible.

Idk I’m baked at work and can’t really understand why people are so easily sold on this idea that Russia is about to conduct full scale war on Europe

Fascism need enemy and reality be damned, after two centuries of russophobia Russia is just Bad, inside of that statement everything goes. Although it is really kind of shocking how far that can go:

Maybe if they bit into a NATO member and it didn't provoke them it would make every subsequent meeting with Russia slightly more Russia favored because they're scared. Then he keeps pushing a little further each time he wants a good trade deal. Each time it doesn't provoke them makes it that much less likely the next one will. Russian would be the first country to benefit from a multipolar geopolitical world.

What would he want with the occupied territory I'm not sure. My attention span wasn't good enough to even know what blood was telling Tucker Carlson about Ukraine and that would have been my entry into Russian history

2 reasons:

1. Russian Ultra Nationalism- some people say/think Putin is trying to rebuild the Russian empire which ofc includes the baltics, moldova, finland, and parts of poland

2. Liberal Geopolitics states that "open" and "closed" countries are fated to fight each other as they represent ideological threats to each other. (This is what fukayama meant by the end of history, there were no more "closed" countries left)