Ukraine

Not a bad theory, but Trump will likely be politcally neutered in the mid-terms, or his hand will be forced where he tries to cancel elections, and the U.S. descends into total chaos. Probably, the octogenarian dictator and his band of lickspittles aren't competent enough to get their way, and a more democratic consensus comes out of the U.S.

But - let's say it doesn't, and the U.S. continues to be run by Krasnov, unchecked. The Ukrainian War, for Europeans, isn't some abstract side act to domestic partisan games like it is in the U.S. It is a clear and present threat where Russia fully intends to colonize or make puppet states out of Europe if it can find any way to do so.

You could argue that there's been a galvanizing effect in Europe to the second Trump presidency - including in France and Germany - his nutso grift has helped more democratic forces there than his far right Kremlin franchisees. France, Germany, Britain, even Italy's erstwhile-right leaning leadership openly messages against Trump, and doesn't kiss his ass. It's hard to argue that far right populism has benefitted from a Trump's insane carnival show - in fact maybe the opposite. As in - there is still a relevant bloc of euros who live in a world of common sense and might be more energized to defend their democracy from russian corrosion with a Trump presidency more than without it.

TL:DR - Trump might not be helping getting fascists elected in Germany and France. If this is their plan - it doesn't seem to be a good one.

plus the many 1million+ russian men that fled russia adds into the strain of the economic loss.

and even thier funding on far right parties in the west is at jeopardy

That seems to be what is happening. But how long do they really think it can last? Financially, they are already digging into their reserves to keep the war going. And they are going to run out of soldiers sooner or later, either via desertion or straight death. And as they have fewer soldiers to hold the line and less money to support them, they will be pushed back further and further until they are right back at their previous border or worse.

I'm taking what you're saying 1-step further:

Russia's idea of victory, now, is the fascist-highjacking of as much of the West as possible,

& then the fascists/feudalists align, together, against civilrights, for the final beat-down, enforcing their oligarchic totalitarianism.

Total war against civilrights.

Both by communists ( what the CCP did to Tibet & to the Uyghurs was exactly imperialism's eradication ) & by the right: the goal's the same, exclusive factional-supremacism.

So, right now, the question pertinent is how long before Trump & Putin set-aside their differences, & both openly war against the autonomy & lives of the woke: Canada, Civil-War Part2, & the rest of the Americas, for the coming Trump dictatorship, & after China "backs"/supplants "Russia" within "Russia", then Putin, or "Putin" or some replacement/quivalent will be rampaging on Europe..

That's the "mass shooting" "win" they're wanting: to destroy that anybody else could ever be "great", so they get to be the final "important" ones.

Competitive-nihilism.

( & it'd be a win-win for China: grind-down the West, without spilling Chinese blood, & China can concentrate on the Asian war-of-consolidation for the same next-7-years,

AND since I expect both Netanyahu & the Saudi king to die soon, that'll leave the Middle-East to MBS, & he'll take Africa once he's got Iran & the rest sorted. )

Phase-change for the world, iow, same as WW1 was a phase-change.

Completely-different-footing.

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Putin still has minions in the EU post-Orban, but no doubt the Russian position keeps getting worse and worse.

The US no longer sends any aid to Ukraine I understand, they simply are delivering equipment that EU countries have bought on behalf of Ukraine. This was a big win for Putin, but nowhere big enough. Add in EU shell manufacturing capacity growing so fast, along with just the general revitalization of EU arms manufacturing, I think the US' support is becoming less and less critical. Given the broad support Ukraine enjoys in the US, I would expect this to reverse in a few years, so there is another clock ticking for Russia.

Honestly, putting myself in Putin's shoes, it's one of two things. First, he has so successfully insulated himself, he has no idea how things are going. Second, he's just continuing to attack because to stop would mean his ouster and likely execution.

So long as Russia continues the war, Putin has an easier time of fending off potential internal enemies. Thousands of ordinary Russians will suffer and many die, but that's a sacrifice he's willing to make to keep holding on to power.

The longer he can hold on, the more chances subverting can change for him.

russia desperately had KRASNOV lift its oil sanctions, they mustve been pretty close to collapsing if he handt lifted it.

I keep thinking how giddy Xi must have been with this idiotic quid pro quo where Russia would attack Ukraine first before Xi pressed on some Taiwan reunification threat. Without losing a single soldier or piece of equipment, China has become the undisputed leader of the Axis of Authoritarian Hell Holes, taken influential control of the Central Asian republics today, will control eastern Russia tomorrow, can make any demand of Russia going forward with no chance of them saying no. They have secured all the resource materials, energy, fresh water that China will ever need, and gained naval use of the erstwhile Russian North Pacific, something they have never, ever had in 5000 years.

The spirit of this question might be more “how would you win”, though. It’s tricky, by all accounts Russia is running out of manpower and seems afraid to conscript more aggressively. Their foreign reserves will run out eventually too (although they’re deeper than I had realised). Most conventional tactics or strategies that are scalable are being tried and not working. I guess they could try bombing some new things.

That leaves escalating to tactical nuclear weapons, and hoping Europe doesn’t respond by directly fighting Russia. Of course, potentially ending the world might be too heavy a cost if you’re not just a Lemming running a hypothetical.

There's a few other twists and turns before you go to tactical nuclear weapons - which may not achieve anything militarily. It's bad juju to run a war of conquest to own an irradiated wasteland. Big Poppa Xi probably wouldn't allow anything but a small show of force in terms of nulear weapons - a demonstrative underground detonation, let's say. But let's be clear - why would such a tantrum change Ukraine's defense calculus? This is already a genocidal war where russia presumes ukraine 'Belongs' to them and they have no right to exist. It's win or die, full stop. Tactical nukes wouldn't change that and if the Russians could precisely target military targets that efficiently, they'd already do it. The delivery systems are the same - only the warhead would be different.

If Russia uses any type of nuclear weapon, you'll immediately see China's support change for the worse from Russia's perspective, and you'd see an instant all-gloves-off response from Ukraine. There would be mass assassination & suicide bomber attacks in Moscow and St. Petersburg, as there would be absolytely nothing restraining Ukraine doing as much damage as possible if you're being incinerated out of existence anyways.

TL:DR - Can't see nukes making anything better for Russia.

There are people running the war in Russia. Generals. High level politicians. Putin himself. As OP said, we are trying to discuss what they think victory would look like for them at this point - which would be nice to know, since that may give us information on when they would consider ending the war, when their conditions of victory are completely unreachable. Chest-thumping platitudes about "Russia bad" aren't really relevant.

Hard to disagree. Others have said he's a poker player who wants you to believe he's a chess player. All bluff, all the time. In a strongman state, the state of that strongman is all that really matters. And my two cents is that Putin is an overpromoted gangster ghoul, and your hypothesis is correct - it wasn't supposed to be this way. Ukraine wasn't supposed to be capable of such resistance, Putin understood his mortality and decided that there was never going to be better conditions than now to try and go for his 20th century revenge project. That's very, very dangerous for a guy who's so personally invested in victory or death - you're implying, and probably correct - that the war ONLY ends when he ends.

russias greatest weaknesses they havnt overcome is the winter apparently.

Ukraine haven't even mobilzed people under 25. It's terrible what they've suffered, but they're nowhere near societal collapse. Russia has been in a nearly net-zero state of casulaties to recruits for nearly two years. And what's not stated there is the declining quality of the average Russian Fighting Man. They started off as a fairly professional mechanized army - destroyed that. Then they went with mass of men and materiel, as they always do, but perofmance and quality declined. Then they went to irregular units driving buggies, bikes and horses into combat. And at each stage, their forward progress and the cost of recruiting new troops rose higher and higher to absurd levels.

Even globally, there is a finite amount of idiots willing to die for a paycheque that likely won't be paid anyways. Just like how ISIS found there is a finite amount of devoted islamists willing to die directly figthing an organized enemy in Iraq and Syria, until they melted away. Russia wants you to think they're bottomless, and not just in terms of their depravity. But - nothing is infinte, and just being able to replace raw numbers without any regard to training quality is obviously leading to decreased performance of your slave army. Russia is losing net territory so far this year, and that's pretty darn hard to hide, or reverse. If they COULD be doing 1% better than they are now, they would be doing eveyrthing to achieve it. This is it - this is the most they're willing to do - throwing useless mouths into pounded rubble until they are blown to bits, and hoping Ukraine gives them something to go away. You know - like a terrorist does asking for ransom.