this post was submitted on 04 May 2026
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For serious discussion - like your thoughts beyond simple "Russians go home" platitudes. What even is a russian theory of victory at this point?

First off - this STILL seems to be a war where their only goal is conquest and capitulation of the Ukrainian government to a Russian puppet one. But - how do they intend realize that?

  1. Terroristic bombings against civilian targets from standoff distance has never, ever been successful at defeating an industrial society. It's way, way way too expensive to maintain and doesn't hold ground.

  2. Russia's mechanized forces in mass have largely been wiped out and is cost-ineffective compared to Ukraine's ability to stop them with drones.

  3. Russia's infantry tactics is literally sending in small infiltration teams into forward areas, where they are eventually either droned, sniped, mined, shelled or outright counter attacked and killed.

Ukraine seems capable of increasingly automating their defense AND assualt forces to be less manpower intensive, and able to trade a little bit of land temporarily until they can kill the infiltration teams that bum rush positions in cars, motorbikes or on foot. The latter is NOT a serious or effective strategy for occupying and pacifying conquered land.

In the big picture - Russia seems to just be prolonging the slaughter and hoping to be given something in return to make it stop. But - that doesn't seem likely to work. No serious minded thinkers expect Russia to honor any agreement, so why WOULDN'T Ukraine logically look at the stiatuion and conclude that the ONLY way to stop future russian aggression is to bleed out their army until there is fundamental change in Russian political leadership.

How does Russia 'win' this war? It's hard to see. Things feel very endgame, but also stagnant since life of their soldiers means absolutely nothing to the Kremlin, when they probably know the alternative is that stopping the war leads quickly and directly to total domestic collapse.

Your thoughts please.

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[–] metermatic26@lemmy.world 7 points 3 days ago (1 children)

A lot of people would answer that the Russian strategy is go “carry on and hope for the best”.

But the Russians have been working very actively to sponsor right-wing extremists and manipulate public opinion, in nearly all Western countries. The election of Trump and Orban for example has been hugely beneficial to Russia.

Plan B I think would be to escalate the war by attacking the EU -forcing them divert resources meant for Ukraine- then sue for peace as soon as they’ve reached some sort of significant territorial gain in either Ukraine or the Baltics.

Its already evident that US won’t lift a finger if NATO countries were to be attacked. In fact Trump would likely use the situation to his advantage and try to extort Europe for money, power or territory.

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

hungary seemed to be a linchpin that putin had in EU, since orban via putin also funded cpac/daily wire which is significant for bringing in men into manosphere.