Ask Lemmy

Well, assuming some agi breakthrough doesn't happen (which would in my opinion require a vastly different approach than llms). We will see more of this ai swarm type stuff. Essentially you end up with a bunch of specialized ai's, and then some ai coordinators. The ai that we will talk to will just farm out the work to other AIs that will include ones specialized in verifying the work that the ai does.

Most people preAI did work that was say 60% implementation, 30% figuring out what needs to be done, and 10% verifying what was done. That will shift to 15% implementation, 50% requirements gathering, and 35% verification.
Obviously those number are just to show the shift, not intended to be an accurate representation of the current way our work is divided.

Overall, if you give ai a way to verify what it is doing, and let it iterate, it is far more useful than just telling it to do a thing or asking it a question.

LLMs are a dead end, and the massive amounts of money being wasted on them will make people too scared to invest in other forms of AI.

So we are currently at a local maxima that we won't overcome in 10 years. It will take much longer before we try a different approach to create "AGI," and the wasted money on LLMs will slow other forms of AI research, leaving us stagnating for >10 years

LLMs will go the way of NTFs. No AGI will exist yet

The only AI companies that will exist in 10 years will be those started by a large company that has other unrelated profit streams. Such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon etc. All others will fail. Some will be bought by the big players if they develop a unique technology. Otherwise they all go broke.

If I had to guess, there will be only two major AI/LLM companies in existence. The nature of LLM's discounts that small companies and organizations can scale one to be profitable.

Micron comes back to the consumer market, but has to rebrand due to the ire of consumers for them being assholes. Same with Western Digital, although they have not "technically" left the consumer market.

The next 5 years will be spent by people trying to find SOMETHING for AI to do. Some very high end uses in research, or academics will be found. However, those will cost massive amounts of money and only available to governments, large corporations and academic institutions. Consumers will be left with creating images, music and a few other parlor tricks, but there will be nothing of any true value offered. In the mean time AI images and videos will be used to exacerbate the societal/ cultural issues across the globe, until the population becomes so jaded and cynical that this media looses efficacy. By that time enormous damage will have been done.

Consumers will also be left paying for the electricity, water, and other resources that the remaining data centers will consume.

I'm currently looking heavily into installing solar on my home, with a battery backup just because of these stupid data centers. It's just a matter of time that these things start causing issues on the grid.

Improvement stagnates.

Venture capital availability reduces.

Mag 7 try to monetise to continue development.

Business adoption is tepid as long term heavy use reduces skills and productivity.

Some financial VC fund learns from a credible whistle blower that generative AI is not a pathway to AGI. Revalues their portfolio, enters administration.

The ensuing fallout triggers a global depression.

Bubble will burst, many AI companies will go under, the ones that remain will have to price themselves out of reach of most people. Lack of investor confidence will trigger a third AI winter, which will affect even actual valuable uses of machine learning models and the further development of locally-run models. People who graduated college between 2023 and 202X will have a harder time getting a job. AGI will still be a far-off dream.

LLMs will be a standard part of software tooling like IDEs, and people won't talk about them much anymore.

LLMs and image/video generation will be a standard part of adult entertainment.

Narrow AI well get better, even faster than normal because of the research that big AI companies are doing now, but attempts at more general AI will stop being profitable.

Bubble go burst

Most interaction between people and computers will move from keyboard and mouse to spoken word.

People hate LLMs because of their unreliability, and they are right. But AI is a much more vast field.

As soon as we have more reliable, causal and general intelligence, the opinions will change.

I personally believe that humans have no clue how limited our brain power is. So much so that there will be no AGIs. Only ASIs. Same thing that happened with chess bots.

People will eventually learn where it is useful and it is not.

I predict software engineers won't go away, but coders will go away.

Impossible to make predictions that far away. We could have AI models that are barely better than our current ones or we might be extinct with our AGI system already spreading out into the universe.