Linux

Some others have already said the "embrace, extend, extinguish" but here's my take on it. Pair it with Secure Boot and TPM 2.0

• Embrace: Secure Boot can already work with Linux, how lucky! This gives them not exactly control, but authoritative denial over your boot process and hardware.
• Extend: This is the part that remains to be seen. If they feel threatened enough by the shift in the gaming landscape, mind you not over losing out on sales or the hearts of gamers or anything, but again control, they may begin to make Linux offerings. A concession to allow an honest to god, thick Office client on Linux would certainly appeal to some. Adobe gets in on that action to back them up with Photoshop and Activision with Call of Duty, etc.
• Extinguish: TPM 2.0. One of the less talked about features of this is remote attestation ("Remote attestation allows changes to the user's computer to be detected by authorized parties. For example, software companies can identify unauthorized changes to software, including users modifying their software to circumvent commercial digital rights restrictions." - DRM). We're already seeing this with CoD on Windows. They'll allow you to run much requested Windows software on Linux, even provide direct support possibly, but at the cost of not precisely control but authoritative denial. Which still works out to be control in most ways since if you want to use the software and they are to remotely attest, they can also insist that part of that attestation is you running some sort of telemetry or not running software they disagree with.

The reason I think this route is highly likely is because it plays well with uninformed consumers. To the untrained eye it looks like they're giving ground and actually allowing for broader support of their software while effectively gaining control over the environment once again and removing the biggest benefits of running FOSS on your system.

Exactly what they're doing right now. What cable companies did. What every dominant business does when something better starts to eat their lunch.

Become increasingly abusive and scummy towards the customers who are left, because they're either too deeply ingrained, spineless or lazy to change and they've already self-selected.

Windows is only 12% of Microsoft's revenue, and between Mac, Linux and ChromeOS, it really doesn't have a monopoly anymore on desktop (about 70%). On top of that, desktop usage in general is decreasing, and is already less than 50% of all web traffic.

What I'm saying is that I think it's safe to say something else will likely "kill" Windows long before Linux ever becomes a serious threat to it.

Work with hardware and software vendors to break linux compatibility.

My expectation: nothing. At least, nothing on the OS side. I don’t think windows is very important to microsoft strategically.

Nowadays, the way to capture audiences is not so much via a proprietary OS, but via proprietary apps.

And in that sense, microsoft is proceeding exactly as expected: more and more of the windows ecosystem either exists on the web, or is available on linux and macos too.

I can see a future where windows only exists for backwards compatibility, but otherwise:

• dotnet apps run on linux (via dotnet core)
• edge runs on linux
• powershell runs on linux
• visual studio code runs on linux
• most of the rest of microsoft’s suite runs in the web

So what does microsoft need to do once windows collapses in the desktop space? Imo not much, really. Those people and companies that are tied to microsoft products will still be. Only, they might be running them on linux.

Edit to add: I am gonna place a bet that we’re gonna see an official microsoft linux distribution by the end of 2035

Well there is the 9/11 change that may be happening soon: https://techrights.org/n/2025/08/26/The_UEFI_9_11_Part_I_Introduction_to_Impending_Catastrophe_Micr.shtml

Its possible a LOT of linux machines wont work after this date.

Hear me out on this one "Microsoft Linux"

Secure boot and anti-cheat.

Linux has been becoming a "serious threat" for 20+ years now. I'll wait.

Don't get me wrong I like Linux a lot. But if you step back and look objectively, it has a lot of issues trying to grow outside the hobby/enthusiast community for the desktop.

pays even more to hardware manufacturers to add windows by default, and make drivers windows only.

Adapt and fight. Linux is the dominant OS for everything, so Windows started to support it (wsl) so they don't loose developers. Secure boot worked as a moat for a while and the MS monopoly on OS keys is still an obstacle. Linux works better on ARM than Windows, so obviously Qualcom Laptops have a locked down bootloader. They will continue to lock themselfes into the future with money and development resources.

Well the Xbox app that suspends Windows processes is a reaction to this threat. The threat not being Linux in general but SteamOS and Proton specifically. I don’t think anyone imagined it would be gaming that would usher in the era of Linux but it does seem that that will be the case.

Make a version of Office that works on Linux natively.

Honestly, ms won't do anything.

unofficial statement out of Microsoft have Linux VMs overtaking the Windows VMs in Azure.

Why should they worry about losing a once off $1100 sale of a Server 2025 license when they can sell you a 2 CPU 8Gb ram Azure VM for $150 a month? Or $113/m commited for 3 years ($4000 total)

Desktop users (except for business) don’t make Microsoft any money, so they probably don’t care.

M$ is switching to defense and surveillance software. Once they failed to force their crap OS into the phone market, they knew their monopoly days were numbered on the PC. They are hoping to lock in devs on GitHub, but it looks like that might backfire with their overt push for CoPilot use.

Just my guess here, but...

The desktop/laptop sort of form factor is associated in people's minds with unlocked bootloaders. People expect to be able to install Linux on them if they want to. Tablets, game systems, and other sorts of consumer electronics, not so much. I'm thinking Microsoft will do what it can to push hardware manufacturers and the software industry as a whole more in the direction of the kinds of devices that consumers already expect to be locked down like tablets or game systems that are "streaming" game systems. And that way, the bootloader will prevent folks from switching to Linux.

The question is also what would US government do. You miss the fact that windows-x86 complex is self supporting cornerstone of US soft and economic power, also spying. What will they do to prop up that monopoly?

Cry maybe