I wonder who will win this trade war? The country with manufacturing infastructure or the country with delusions of grandeur?
this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2025
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I think it’ll be the country that has a thin veneer spread over a command economy.
Sounds like Airbus will be getting busy soon
Honestly, is there any product or material from the US that can’t be obtained in another country? Am I wrong to think that the rest of the world will just shrug and get what they need elsewhere? I mean the appeal of the US to other countries is our insatiable appetite for consumption, which can be leveraged for favorable trade deals. If we stop buying foreign goods because they are so expensive, we’re just fucked.
Certain military hardware doesn't have an equal. And a number of digital services.
What digital service can’t be replicated?
Technically they can be replicated, but the network effect and their current economies of scale are harder.
CPUs, GPUs and other integrated circuits? Made in Taiwan mostly, but still.
Made in Taiwan … exactly. The company might be American, but the product isn’t. The company is easily replaced by another with enough startup capital, and China has plenty of that.
Sadly I think Airbus is already busy as is. As far as I understand it, they were already supply constrainted before this and have their order books filled for years. Otherwise Boeing's most recent quality and safety issues would have had a larger effect.
I don't know if they could increase capacities even if they wanted to, or if a volatile situation like this would allow for the investments that would be necessary to do so.
Imo this just accelerates China's own ambitions to build up their own rival with Comac. This development makes the transition less gradual and they'll have to eat some losses, but that's something their system is capable of.
On the other hand it's actually worse for the US, because they'll miss out on those sales and might not be able to sell them somewhere else. With Boeing already struggling and this being a key industry, this will mean that it might require more subsidies in the future to keep them going or succeed in the turnaround.
The order came after China unveiled retaliatory tariffs of 125% on American goods this past weekend, the people said. Those levies on their own would have more than doubled the cost of US-made aircraft and parts, making it impractical for Chinese airlines to accept Boeing planes.