5 years or so is my bet.
this post was submitted on 05 Apr 2025
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I'm not sure how this relates to this post, but yogsoth posted this a few hours before you: Worlds first 1 nanometer risc-v chip
RISC-V entails also breaking off from the US operating system hegemony. Chinese tech firms are already using RISC-V in production servers but consumer-facing personal computers with RISC-V would require building your entire OS from scratch outside of these yank companies or focus on the mobile space solely (something like HarmonyOS)
I would really like for China to invest in KDE/GNOME and start building out that support for the entire world rather than go their own way with a domestic solution.
They already have Deepin, and Ubuntu has a Risc-V path. So I wouldn't be surprised if they dump dev time into that
i need a chinese version of that stallman copypasta, yesterday
我想插一句。你所说的 Linux 实际上是 GNU/Linux，或者我最近开始称之为 GNU 加 Linux。Linux 本身并不是一个操作系统，而是由 GNU corelibs、shell utilities 和重要的系统组件组成的、功能完善的 GNU 系统的另一个自由组件，这些组件构成了 POSIX 所定义的完整操作系统。
许多计算机用户每天都在运行经过修改的 GNU 系统，却没有意识到这一点。一个奇特的现象是，今天广泛使用的 GNU 版本通常被称为 Linux，而它的许多用户并不知道它基本上就是由 GNU 项目开发的 GNU 系统。
确实有一种 Linux，这些人正在使用它，但它只是他们使用的系统的一部分。Linux 是内核：系统中为你运行的其他程序分配机器资源的程序。内核是操作系统的重要组成部分，但它本身并无用处；它只能在完整的操作系统中发挥作用。Linux 通常与 GNU 操作系统结合使用：整个系统基本上就是添加了 Linux 的 GNU，或 GNU/Linux。所有所谓的 Linux 发行版实际上都是 GNU/Linux 的发行版！
My money is before trump’s term is up. They won’t even need to be the fastest devices to start appearing in consumer hardware. And they have now all the incentives the USA could have possibly given them to invest and pursue this technology while also ensuring their top research scientists don’t get lured into the USA to conduct research here.
That said, it’s still a significant game of catch-up. ARM has had an incredible lead time in both design and hardware production as well as the crucial software support and ironing out bugs.
I hope there will be RISC-V chips at phone-scale sooner rather than later.